Wisconsin School Shooter Linked to California Man's Alleged Plot

Wisconsin School Shooter Linked to California Man's Alleged Plot
Above: Students from Abundant Life Christian School are escorted to a city bus after a school shooting on Dec. 16, 2024, in Madison, Wisconsin. Image copyright: Andy Manis/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A 20-year-old California man has been detained on suspicion of "plotting" to coordinate a mass shooting at a government building after authorities found he had communicated with the teenage girl who committed the school shooting in Wisconsin.

  • FBI agents detained Alexander Paffendorf in Carlsbad, California, after discovering he had been communicating with 15-year-old Natalie Rupnow. Rupnow killed two people and wounded six others at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wisconsin, before taking her own life on Monday.


The Spin

Narrative A

The coordinated planning between Rupnow and Paffendorf demonstrates a sophisticated level of premeditation that extends beyond a single incident. The presence of multiple weapons and cross-state coordination suggests that Monday's shooting was not an impulsive act but rather a calculated plan.

Narrative B

The investigation into Monday's tragic shooting remains ongoing with no clear motive established, and authorities have not confirmed if any specific individuals were targeted in the attack. The shooting may have been indiscriminate, as Police Chief Barnes stated that everyone was put in equal danger.


Metaculus Prediction


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