Poll: AOC Rises, Schumer Falls Among NY Voters

Poll: AOC Rises, Schumer Falls Among NY Voters
Above: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) outside the House of Representatives while speaking to members of the press on Capitol Hill on Aug. 3, 2021 in Washington, D.C. Image copyright: Kent Nishimura/Contributor/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The Spin

Progressive narrative

The progressive movement is gaining unprecedented momentum, with Ocasio-Cortez's message resonating across demographic lines. Crowds of hundreds of thousands of people have rallied on the AOC-Sanders anti-Trump tour, showing a clear path to energizing the beaten-down Democratic Party.

Democratic narrative

Ocasio-Cortez is a mirage. While it's certain that the firebrand New York representative pleases her ever-energetic progressive base, allowing the smallest ideological group in the country to take over the Democratic Party would be a gift to Republicans. She does not have the leadership experience to lead a united left against the GOP.

Republican narrative

The problems faced by the Democrats are not just about what's happening internally. President Trump and his policies are exceptionally popular with the American public, and although AOD and Saunders may be riding a limited wave of dissatisfaction on the far left in response to this, the party at large does not know how to begin to counter Trump's success. Despite this polling, the notion of AOC as a credible 2028 candidate is ludicrous.

Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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