Australian Election Issue: Immigration

Australian Election Issue: Immigration
Above: Protesters from the Refugee Action Collective March through streets of Brisbane with placards and banners, on Jan. 19, 2025. Image copyright: Joshua Prieto/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The Spin

Australian Labor Party narrative

Migration significantly boosts Australia's economic prosperity by increasing labor productivity and employment opportunities for Australian-born workers. A one percentage point rise in annual migrant inflow leads to a 0.53% increase in employment for the Australian-born population, benefiting workers across all skill levels, ages, and genders. Additionally, higher-educated migrants contribute to innovation, with a one percentage point increase in their regional employment share leading to a 4.8% rise in patent applications.

Liberal/National Coalition narrative

The rapid increase in migration has created significant challenges for infrastructure and social services. The surge in international student arrivals, accounting for a large portion of migrant arrivals, necessitates caps on international student numbers for institutions and courses. The current migration levels are unsustainable and require careful management to ensure proper integration and support for both new arrivals and existing residents.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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