Brazil: First Two Justices Vote to Convict Bolsonaro and Co-Defendants in Coup Trial

Brazil: First Two Justices Vote to Convict Bolsonaro and Co-Defendants in Coup Trial
Above: Flávio Dino, the second Brazilian Supreme Court justice to vote to convict Bolsonaro, on Sept. 9, 2025. Image copyright: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

Justices' votes were very technical, as expected, with evidence clearly demonstrating a systematic attempt to overthrow Brazil's democracy through violence and intimidation. There's compelling proof of a coordinated criminal organization to overturn the electoral results. Brazil came dangerously close to returning to dictatorship, and accountability is essential to protect democratic institutions.

Right narrative

Bolsonaro and his co-defendants are receiving anything but a fair trial. It's impossible for the First Panel of the Brazilian Supreme Court to deliver an impartial judgment, given that a majority of its justices are either close allies of Brazilian President Lula — Bolsonaro's rival — or longtime Bolsonaro nemesis Alexandre de Moraes. It's certain beforehand that they will be convicted.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.15.2

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2