Canadian Election Issue: Crime

Canadian Election Issue: Crime
Above: Toronto Police Service Inspector Peter Wehby gives an update on the investigation of a pair of shootings less than 24 hours apart in the Jane Street and Driftwood Avenue area in Toronto on February 18, 2024. Image copyright: Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images

The Spin

Conservative Party narrative

For a decade, Liberal MPs backed policies that weakened Canada's justice system—gutting mandatory sentences, loosening bail, and letting violent repeat offenders back onto the streets with bills like C-5 and C-75. Now, with crime rising and public trust collapsing, Mark Carney wants to do a last-minute U-turn and have Canadians forget his party's disastrous weak-on-crime record. But words won’t undo years of damage. Poilievre's Conservatives have a clear plan to end the chaos: close the border to smuggled guns and drugs, restore real consequences for serious crime, and put Canadian safety first again—for a change.

Liberal Party narrative

Under Mark Carney, the Liberals are taking a balanced approach to public safety—combining tough, targeted enforcement with smart, preventative action. Carney’s plan boosts frontline capacity with 2,000 new RCMP and CBSA officers, cracks down on U.S.-sourced guns and fentanyl, and tightens bail for repeat violent offenders. It includes stronger penalties for child exploitation, hate crimes, and intimate partner violence—while respecting rights and investing in community safety. Where Conservatives recycle failed “tough on crime” slogans, Liberals offer a comprehensive, evidence-based plan to keep Canadians safe.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies


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