Europe Plans 30K-Strong Force to Secure Post-War Ukraine

Europe Plans 30K-Strong Force to Secure Post-War Ukraine
Above: French Pres. Emmanuel Macron meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Elysée Palace to discuss Ukraine and European security on Feb. 17, 2025. Image copyright: Tom Nicholson/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The European security force represents a crucial step toward strategic autonomy and demonstrates Europe's commitment to Ukraine's long-term security, while the modest troop numbers and focused mandate make it a realistic and sustainable option for preventing future Russian aggression — and also standing up to the whims of the US.

Narrative B

The proposed force is inadequate for deterring Russian aggression and could potentially escalate tensions with Moscow because Europe's limited military capabilities make it impossible to sustain such a mission without substantial US involvement. This shows that, despite the US urging Europe to take on a more robust security posture, there is nothing more valuable than a transatlantic alliance.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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