European LNG Imports Hit Post-Pandemic Low

European LNG Imports Hit Post-Pandemic Low
Above: An LNG FSU tanker carrying liquefied gas moors in port in Marsaxlokk, Malta, on Dec. 25, 2024.  Image copyright: Michal Fludra/NurPhoto/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • European imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 19% in 2024 to 135B cubic meters, marking the lowest level since 2021, while gas consumption across the continent dropped to an 11-year low.

  • The UK experienced the steepest decline in LNG imports with a 47% reduction, followed by Belgium with a 29% decrease, and Spain with a 28% decrease. The drop was primarily attributed to successful renewable energy integration and reduced gas demand.

  • Despite declining demand, Europe's LNG import capacity is projected to expand by 60% between 2021 and 2030, with new infrastructure being developed across multiple countries including Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Italy.

The Spin

Narrative A

The significant drop in LNG imports demonstrates Europe's successful transition toward renewable energy and reduced fossil fuel dependency. The continent has likely passed peak LNG demand, showing that energy security can be achieved without heavy reliance on gas imports.

Narrative B

The massive investment in new LNG infrastructure, despite falling demand, risks creating stranded assets and an unnecessary financial burden. With utilization rates already declining, the planned 60% capacity expansion by 2030 could lead to severely underutilized facilities and wasted resources.

Metaculus Prediction


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