Will France call another election by 2026?
MetaculusJUL 2024
French Prime Minister Faces Criticism Over Catholic School Abuse Cover-up Claims
Above: France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou attends a French parliamentary session on the 2025 finance bill, and the social security budget at The National Assembly, France's lower house parliament, in Paris on Feb. 3, 2025. Image copyright: BERTRAND GUAY/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
These accusations are politically motivated attacks aimed at causing government instability by targeting Bayrou and his family members. The uproar surrounding this sex abuse scandal is being politically weaponized and the focus is not on justice or victims but on stirring up scandal for political gain.
Narrative B
Bayrou must address these accusations immediately. The evidence strongly suggests a pattern of willful ignorance and institutional cover-up at the highest levels. Multiple witnesses confirm Bayrou must have known about the abuse, and his continued denials demonstrate ongoing complicity in protecting abusers rather than victims.