Hezbollah Alliance Dominates South Lebanon's Municipal Elections

Hezbollah Alliance Dominates South Lebanon's Municipal Elections
Above: Citizens cast their votes as the fourth and final phase of Lebanon's municipal elections kicked off in Lebanon's southern governorates, the cities of Sidon and Tyre, amid ongoing Israeli attacks and ceasefire violations, on May 24, 2025.  Image copyright: Ramiz Dallah/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Hezbollah narrative

These election results prove that Hezbollah remains politically strong and retains solid support among its Shiite base despite suffering significant military losses during the recent war with Israel. The organization's ability to win municipal races across its traditional strongholds demonstrates that reports of its political demise were greatly exaggerated, and the group continues to provide essential services and representation that resonates with local communities. The fact that voting proceeded smoothly even in war-damaged areas shows Hezbollah's organizational capacity remains intact, and the alliance with Amal continues to deliver electoral victories that reflect genuine popular backing rather than mere intimidation.

Opposition narrative

The dramatically reduced voter turnout and widespread uncontested races actually reveal Hezbollah's weakening grip on power and growing public disillusionment with traditional political parties following the devastating war. Lower participation rates, particularly in Hezbollah strongholds, suggest that many supporters are questioning the group's decision-making and leadership after the conflict brought destruction to their communities. The fact that many municipalities saw no real competition indicates political apathy rather than genuine support — while the group's struggles to secure reconstruction funding highlight its diminished regional influence and financial constraints compared to previous conflicts.

Metaculus Prediction

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