Home Sales Rise Slightly in May Despite Affordability Challenges

Home Sales Rise Slightly in May Despite Affordability Challenges
Above: A "For Sale" sign in front of a home in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, May 8, 2025. Image copyright: Nathan Howard/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump's policies are crippling U.S. housing. Tariffs on Canadian lumber inflate home-building costs; mass deportations target construction workers; and his debt-exploding bill will raise mortgage payments over $1,400 yearly by 2034. With housing starts at a post-2020 low and prices up over 1%, his actions worsen the affordability crisis for working and middle-class Americans.

Republican narrative

Trump, while still fresh into his term, is actually revitalizing homeownership. By slashing regulations, streamlining permits, and freeing federal land for development, he's boosting supply to lower prices. His pro-growth approach, including support for private investment and reshoring manufacturing, counters Biden's regulatory failures that tripled mortgage rates, making homes affordable again.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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