Most Seats Won in 45th Canadian Election
MetaculusAPR 2022
Canadian Election: Liberals Hold Narrowing Lead as Campaign Enters Final Week
Above: People arrive at a polling station to cast their ballots on the last day of advance voting for the upcoming federal election in Toronto, Ontario on April 21, 2025. Image copyright: Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The Liberals have successfully positioned themselves as the party best equipped to handle U.S. trade tensions and protect Canadian sovereignty, while maintaining economic stability and delivering on social programs. Their steady leadership under Carney has resonated with centrist voters who seek experienced management during uncertain times.
Narrative B
The Conservative message on affordability and economic management is gaining traction as Canadians struggle with rising costs. Poilievre's consistent focus on domestic issues and fiscal responsibility offers a clear alternative to continued Liberal spending, with momentum building among working-class voters and those under 50.
Narrative C
Despite Poilievre’s strong economic message and loyal base, the Conservative Party is struggling to expand its support. Voters agree on issues but are unconvinced Poilievre can deliver. With less than a week to go until election day, the Conservatives face challenges in convincing undecided voters, leaving the door open for Carney’s Liberals to maintain their lead.