Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?
MetaculusAPR 2023
Canadian Election: Poilievre Unveils Three-Strikes Crime Plan
Above: Pierre Poilievre during a "Canada First" rally in Nisku, Alberta, Canada, on April 7, 2025. Image copyright: Artur Widak/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Spin
Conservative Party narrative
The current soft-on-crime approach has failed to protect Canadians, allowing repeat offenders to cycle through the justice system and continue committing crimes. The three-strikes law would finally keep dangerous criminals off the streets and restore safety to communities across the country.
Liberal Party narrative
While the full weight of the law should certainly be applied when necessary, the proposed legislation represents a return to failed tough-on-crime policies that are likely unconstitutional and ineffective at reducing crime. These measures would overcrowd prisons, disproportionately affect marginalized communities, and ultimately make society less safe by hindering rehabilitation.