Canadian Election: Record 7.3M Vote in Advance Polls

Canadian Election: Record 7.3M Vote in Advance Polls
Above: People make their way to a polling station in Vaughan, Ontario, Canada, on April 20, 2025. Image copyright: Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The record-breaking advance turnout demonstrates unprecedented voter engagement, signaling that Canadians recognize the stakes of this election. With many focusing on the country’s economic future and its relationship with the U.S., Conservatives push for a populist agenda aimed at growth, while Liberals stress the need for stability and resilience against U.S. pressures.

Narrative B

The high advance turnout might not necessarily indicate higher overall voter participation. While a record 7.3 million Canadians voted early this year, it’s unclear if this will translate to a rise in final turnout. In 2021, despite more people using advance polls, overall participation dropped from 67% to 62%, showing that early voting doesn't always lead to a higher final count.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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