UK: Reform Hold Polling Lead as Tories Hit Historic Low

UK: Reform Hold Polling Lead as Tories Hit Historic Low
Above: Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch listens to the media questions during a press conference regarding the U.K.-EU Summit at Conrad House on May 19, 2025 in London, England.  Image copyright: Peter Nicholls/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Conservative Party narrative

Despite poor polling, the Conservative Party remains the only serious force for stable, centre-right governance in the U.K. It must reclaim its core principles: economic freedom, national sovereignty, and individual liberty, while showing it has learned from past mistakes. With bold reform and renewed purpose, the Tories can offer the clear alternative the country still needs.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Tories are broken beyond repair. Years of mismanagement have turned the U.K. into a laughing stock. From economic stagnation to failing public services and scandal after scandal, the Tories have completely lost the public's trust. No spin or rebrand can revive a party that lacks repentance or bold policy renewal. Make no mistake, this is the end of the Conservative Party.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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