Trump Plans 25% Tariffs on Cars, Chips, and Drugs

Trump Plans 25% Tariffs on Cars, Chips, and Drugs
Above: Various Chinese-made cars waiting for transfer at the freight yard of Hangzouh North Railway Station in Hangzhou, China on Feb. 18, 2025. Image copyright: Costfoto/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Facts

  • US Pres. Donald Trump announced Tuesday plans to impose 25% tariffs on imported automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products. The Republican president also indicated that rates on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could increase substantially over time.

  • The proposed auto tariffs would significantly impact the industry, as nearly half of the 8M passenger cars and light trucks sold in the US last year were imported. It could also potentially affect major manufacturers from Europe and Asia.

  • In the pharmaceutical sector, the US imported more than $176B worth of drugs and related products in 2023, with Ireland accounting for 20.4% of imports, followed by Germany at 10.8%, Switzerland at 8.6%, India at 6.2%, and China at 3.4%.

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

The tariffs are essential to rebalance global trade relationships and bring strategic industries back to America. These measures will incentivize foreign companies to establish US manufacturing facilities and create American jobs. The current trade relationships are unfair and need to be restructured to protect American interests.

Anti-Trump narrative

The proposed tariffs will significantly increase costs for American consumers and businesses, potentially harming the US economy. Car prices could jump by thousands of dollars, while the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors may face supply chain disruptions and increased costs that would ultimately be passed on to consumers. The measures could also trigger retaliatory actions from trading partners.

Metaculus Prediction


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