US Gives Chevron One Month to End Operations in Venezuela

US Gives Chevron One Month to End Operations in Venezuela
Above: The Chevron Corp. offices in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 1, 2022. Image copyright: Matias Delacroix/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This decision is a hard blow to Nicolás Maduro's narco-dictatorship, hitting its main foreign currency income. Biden-era failed oil licenses only served to give a financial lifeline to the repressive regime. Now, Trump has sent a clear message to Caracas that maximum pressure will continue until Maduro changes his behavior.

Anti-Trump narrative

It's still unclear what exactly the Trump administration is planning for Venezuela. Maximum pressure failed to lead to a regime change in his first term — and it's unlikely that the second time will be the charm — and now risks to leave the country in a limbo where Maduro remains in office and is able to blame the economic crisis on sanctions.

Establishment-critical narrative

In a move to please foreign policy hawks, particularly those from Florida who are allied with Venezuela's far-right opposition, the Trump administration has pushed to cancel Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela. This is a short-sighted decision that will harm America's own interests.

Metaculus Prediction



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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