Net migration to UK drops 69% year on year, ONS figures show
Guardian1 day
UK Net Migration Falls 69% to 204,000, Lowest Since 2021
Are controls finally working as promised, or is the system still failing amid record asylum numbers?
Above: The U.K. Border Force vessel brings migrants who were intercepted crossing the English Channel into Dover port on Oct. 8, 2025. Image credit: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Net migration is plummeting toward pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 as visa restrictions take effect, with numbers already halving from recent peaks. Immigration controls are working so well that net migration could drop to 70,000-170,000 by 2026 — a massive 60-80% decrease from 2024 levels. The public simply hasn't caught up to this dramatic immigration success story yet.
Government-critical narrative
Labour's lofty immigration promises are crashing into reality as small boat arrivals surge 19% and asylum costs threaten to balloon by £1.4 billion. The government's pledge to close asylum hotels looks increasingly hollow with accommodation spending set to triple to £15.3 billion over the next decade. Despite tough talk about smashing the gangs, net migration will actually climb back to 340,000 by 2030.