Russia Ukraine Black Sea Ceasefire White Hous
AxiosMAR 22
US: Russia, Ukraine Agree on Cease-Fire in Black Sea
Above: Pres. of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy makes statements to press members as he holds a press conference about the cease-fire at the Black Sea and the progress of peace talks in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 25, 2025. Image copyright: Danylo Antoniuk/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The agreements mark a significant diplomatic breakthrough that will protect vital shipping routes and facilitate global food security. Restoring Russia's access to world markets shows a practical approach to resolving the conflict. The deal's implementation mechanisms, including third-party monitoring, provide necessary safeguards for all parties.
Pro-Russia narrative
Clear guarantees are essential. Given past experiences with Ukrainian agreements, Washington must explicitly order Kyiv to comply with the terms. The previous grain deal failed because Western promises weren't fulfilled, and Russian commercial interests were unfairly restricted. Moscow requires concrete actions, not just promises, to ensure the agreement's success.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
A truce with Russia is effective immediately. However, the agreements didn't set out a course of action if Russia broke the terms, which is why additional technical consultations are needed to implement the cease-fire — including who would monitor the Black Sea — as Kyiv doesn't trust Russia to honor the arrangements.