Peru's Congress Removes President Jerí
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Congress attempting to censure the president amounts to a coup d'état since the Constitution never authorized removing a head of state through censure — a mechanism that could oust a president with just 34 votes. The military must uphold constitutional order by backing Jerí, who holds legitimate authority as commander in chief. Forcing an unconstitutional removal sets a dangerous precedent that undermines democratic stability.
Government-critical narrative
Jerí brought this crisis entirely upon himself through secretive meetings with shady Chinese businessmen and contradictory explanations that reek of a cover-up. His lack of transparency extends beyond these shady dealings to suspicious hiring practices now under investigation. The president's own reckless conduct made it easy for critics to build a case against him and remove him from office.
Metaculus Prediction
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