Trump Defends 'Donroe Doctrine,' Floats Further Military Action in Western Hemisphere
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
Legally, Trump cannot enforce his corollary to the Monroe Doctrine through military force without congressional approval. Therefore, even if his actions and threats in the Western Hemisphere are popular or defensible, they are illegal and constitute a dangerous precedent for peace and global stability. The U.S. is acting as a rogue state, and the long-term effect of U.S. interventionism may be a political backlash that undermines the country's own interests.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Donroe Doctrine intends to removes foreign enemies from America's region and protects hemispheric interests. China, Russia and Iran have no business destabilizing the Western Hemisphere with their influence operations in Venezuela and elsewhere in the region. Neither capturing Maduro nor other floated actions would amount to an act of war, but rather as a clear message that the U.S. no longer tolerates hostile powers and actors operating in its own backyard.
Metaculus Prediction
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