Trump Says Putin 'Kept His Word' on Energy Truce, Contradicting Zelenskyy
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
As the next round of negotiations start, the question is whether Russia's Putin is really ready for peace? Given that he's just launched one of the biggest strikes of the winter on the eve of the latest talks, the outlook for Ukraine still looks bleak, as both sides inch towards the fourth anniversary of the war.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's position is unequivocal and is well understood by Ukrainian and U.S. counterparts — both of whose efforts Russia appreciates in facilitating and engaging in valuable mediation to bring an end to the fighting. Russia has made clear it will not be commenting until the conclusion of current talks, in order to give negotiations the best chance.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
While these upcoming talks are critical to Ukraine, and they could in fact be constructive in bringing peace to the country, some major issues still remain. Primarily, the countries remain far divided on the political issue of territory and Russia continues to make unreasonable demands that Ukraine cannot accept. Given this conflict started with Putin illegally invading a sovereign neighbor, Russia should be prepared to make concessions.
Metaculus Prediction
The Controversies
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