The G7 summit has made real progress on Ukraine, especially in light of the newly signed U.S.-Iran agreement, with Trump calling on Russia to make a deal and signaling willingness to reimpose oil sanctions. G7 leaders reached a shared consensus that pressure on Moscow must increase, including new energy and banking sanctions. Germany's Merz even called Trump cooperative and attentive, a strong sign that the U.S. and Europe are finally aligned on ending this war.
Trump's G7 performance on Ukraine is full of vague promises and zero concrete commitments, and given his track record of reversals, optimism is premature. The U.S. has already been sidelined financially, with the EU now covering 100% of Kyiv's support. Doubts about Trump's staying power are completely reasonable when his stated motivation is simply disliking monthly casualty numbers.
The G7 discussions do not change the underlying balance of the war. Russia continues to hold strategically important territory and has shown little willingness to accept terms shaped by Western pressure. Additional sanctions are unlikely to alter Moscow's core objectives after years of economic adaptation, while Kyiv remains dependent on external support. A durable settlement will require recognition of Russia's security demands and battlefield realities rather than renewed efforts to increase pressure.
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