Turkey Says Greek Missiles Locked Onto its Jets Over the Med
On Sun., the radar of a Greek S-300 missile system based on the island of Crete reportedly locked on to Turkish F-16 fighter jets carrying out a reconnaissance mission in international airspace on Aug. 23.
The F-16s were at an altitude of 10K feet to the west of Greece's Rhodes island when the Russian-made air defense system locked on. The Turkish planes completed their mission and returned to their bases "despite the hostile environment."
A Turkish report regarding the issue noted that radar lock-ons are considered an act of hostility under NATO's rules of engagement. Meanwhile, the Greek Defense Ministry rejected Ankara's recent accusations of provocative actions by Greece.
Narrative A
Yet again, Greece has threatened Turkey with unprovoked harassment. Turkey has complained of repeated provocative actions and rhetoric by Greece in recent months, and such moves are an obstacle to peace - something that Turkey vehemently wants.
Narrative B
The Turkish allegations against Greece are absolute nonsense, and the fault for tensions between the two countries squarely falls on Turkey for constantly launching provocative actions in the Mediterranean.
Narrative C
Diplomacy between Greece and Turkey must be prioritized to avoid a war in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both countries have understandable grievances against the other, but that is no excuse for two NATO allies to go to war. It is paramount that the international community pressures Greece and Turkey onto the negotiating table.
Iran Threatens No Nuclear Deal If IAEA Inquiry Continues
On Mon. Iran's Pres. Ebrahim Raisi warned that an agreement to revive the 2015 nuclear deal will only be finalized if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ends its yearslong inquiry into man-made uranium particles that were found at undeclared sites in the country.
This comes as Tehran is assessing a so far undisclosed US counterproposal to restore the agreement, suggesting that the closure of the IAEA probe is a key issue to Iran as it would prevent the US from using it to leave the deal again.
Israeli media on Sun. published unsourced reports that a draft proposal was submitted by the EU to Tehran in July to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It would gradually end uranium enrichment but allow Iran to retain its stockpile while sanctions are lifted and prisoners are released.
Democratic narrative
We only reached this point of instability because of the damage Trump caused by pulling the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal. Biden is doing what he can to repair these diplomatic ties, and is dealing from a diminished position because of Iran's accomplishments in the years since the deal was scrapped.
Republican narrative
This is a chance for Biden to avoid a terrible new nuclear deal with Iran. A fresh agreement would allow Iran to continue funding terrorism, as well as benefit Putin because of carveouts for his country's energy projects with Tehran. A new deal would be a disaster.
Nerd narrative
There's a 16% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
2 Killed in Oregon Grocery Store Shooting
Two people were killed and two more wounded when a gunman shot at shoppers in a grocery store in Bend, Oregon, on Sunday. Law enforcement agencies arrived shortly afterwards, where officers found the attacker had died from a gunshot wound.
At a press conference, police chief Mike Krantz said the shooter entered the parking lot of the Forum Shopping Center from a residential area behind the stores. The suspect reportedly opened fire in the parking lot with an AR-15 style rifle, though no one was injured there.
The suspected shooter was identified by police as Bend resident Ethan Miller, 20. The two victims have been identified as Glenn Edward Bennett, 84 - who was shopping at the time - and Donald Ray Surrett Jr., 66, an employee at the store who reportedly attempted to disarm the gunman.
Democratic narrative
Americans deserve protection from gun violence - how many more people have to die before stricter gun control regulations are passed? If the key gun control proposals now being considered in Congress had been put in law sooner, countless lives would have been saved.
Republican narrative
Gun control doesn't work. Mass shootings are becoming ever more common in Democrat controlled areas, with Oregon having some of the strictest gun control laws in the country. Rather than placing restrictions on law-abiding gun owners, US legislators should be protecting second amendment rights - only by allowing responsible and regulated gun ownership can lives be protected.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the US by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 188 Roundup: Ukraine Claims Breakthrough in Kherson; IAEA Inspectors in Kyiv
Following Mon.'s announcement that Ukraine's long-awaited southern counteroffensive has begun, its armed forces claimed to have broken through several areas along the front line of Russian defences in the Kherson region. This was supported by a video appearing to show a Russian soldier in the midst of artillery fire complaining about a Ukrainian breakthrough. However, the advance has yet to be independently confirmed.
In the wake of the announcement, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Monday: "If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee." He added: "The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed."
Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych tapered expectations and described the counteroffensive as a "slow operation to grind the enemy." He said: "Of course, many would like a large-scale offensive with news about the capture by our military of a settlement in an hour. But we don't fight like that ... funds are limited."
Pro-establishment narrative
It's unclear how far Ukrainian forces might have pushed, but all signs indicate that the long-awaited southern counteroffensive has successfully started, particularly in the region of Kherson. Any offensive action is good news for Kyiv and, with luck, this is part of a wider counteroffensive that will shift the momentum of the war in Kyiv's favor.
Pro-Russia narrative
Reports of a successful Kherson counteroffensive are false. Moscow's forces were activated in Tavrichesky, but all Ukrainian attackers who failed to surrender were eliminated and the area is now back under Russian control. Kherson has been severed from Kyiv and life is gradually returning to normal under a Russian economic and legal framework.
Nerd narrative
There is a 11% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Armed Clashes Erupt in Baghdad
The worst armed clashes in recent years erupted in Baghdad on Mon. night between forces loyal to Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the pro-Iran Coordination Framework Alliance (CFA), leaving at least 30 dead.
The violence began after al-Sadr announced earlier on Mon. his withdrawal from politics. Pro-Sadr protesters, who had already been occupying Iraq's parliament building in the heavily-guarded Green Zone since late July, pushed into the Republican Palace, clashing with CFA counter-protesters.
Soon after, Sadr-aligned militia, Saraya al-Salam, confronted units of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), pro-Iran militias that are associated with the CFA. A small force from the special forces division and the Iraqi Army's 9th Division were also involved, as they tried to contain the fighting.
Narrative A
Al-Sadr, who is known for stirring the pot in Iraqi politics, is playing with fire. Though popular with many in the Shiite community, his unruly supporters coupled with his fierce rhetoric are plunging Iraq into civil strife. His actions instigated the violence in Baghdad, and he should make way for the CFA which now has a clear and legal pathway to governance.
Narrative B
Despite al-Sadr's position against the West, he may be an unlikely asset to US interests, primarily due to his opposition to Iran. The future of the Sadrist movement depends on preventing Iran-aligned militias from expanding their influence within the state, and the West should make sure it at least tacitly accepts al-Sadr. As the expression goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Cynical narrative
Al-Sadr has already lost to Iran, and antics like this aren't going to change that. The firebrand cleric did quite well in last year's elections, but his inability to form a government has led to a significant loss of ground to Iranian-backed groups.
UN: 6M Afghans At Risk Of Famine
On Mon., the UN warned that poverty in Afghanistan is worsening, with 6M people on the brink of famine, and called on donors to resume development funding.
In preparation for the upcoming winter months, UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths called for $770M in immediate aid for Afghanistan, which he said is facing a humanitarian, economic, climatic, famine, and financial crisis.
With more than half of the 39M Afghans in need of aid, Griffiths said, the dire situation has been exacerbated by the freezing of large-scale funding to Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power.
Pro-establishment narrative
It's not surprising that Afghanistan, under Taliban leadership, is facing an economic and humanitarian catastrophe as they have no understanding of financial markets or how to run an economy. Incompetence and draconian policies mean that foreign aid and investment won't actually solve Afghan's economic problems.
Establishment-critical narrative
The year imperialist, US-led NATO war against Afghanistan didn't end last year - it's being continued by other means. Not only with special forces, but also through sanctions, and the associated theft of Afghan central bank assets. Afghanistan's humanitarian and economic disaster is a direct result of a US policy that seeks to maintain control.
Jan. 6 Rioter Sentenced to 55 Months
Joshua Pruitt, a 40-year-old Maryland man who has been affiliated with the far-right Proud Boys group, was sentenced on Mon. to 55 months in federal prison for partaking in the US Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.
He pleaded guilty to obstruction of an official proceeding on June 6. He was caught on video pursuing police officers and destroying a sign inside the Capitol.
He also allegedly encountered Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) before a security detail took the senator to safety.
Democratic narrative
Most people convicted for their involvement in the Jan. 6 riots are receiving relatively lenient sentences, which allows for truth and reconciliation. But a wider message must still be sent regarding more serious offenders in order to protect democracy in the US.
Pro-Trump narrative
It's absurd to prosecute those who participated in the Jan. 6 protests with such ferocity. The Democrats are the real anti-Americans, demonizing patriotic citizens as "domestic terrorists."
Solomon Islands Suspends Foreign Navy Ships Visits
The Solomon Islands Prime Minister's office has reportedly temporarily banned all naval visits until protocol procedures are refined, allegedly to improve control over its exclusive economic zones.
This comes a week after a US Coast Guard cutter, the Oliver Henry, and the British HMS Spey had to abort a routine port call as the island's government reportedly failed to answer their requests to refuel and reprovision.
Both vessels were taking part in Operation Island Chief, a 10-day annual patrol to help the Solomon Islands tackle illegal fishing.
Anti-China narrative
The latest developments in the Solomon Islands are a clear indication that the growing Chinese influence in the South Pacific nation is meant to favor authoritarianism. Western countries' navy ships have been barred from docking in its ports, foreign journalists have been threatened and attacked by government officials, and the PM is pushing to postpone the elections.
Pro-China narrative
Although Western media and governments are trying to use this episode to promote anti-China rhetoric, the truth is that Solomoners don't want to be a pawn in the US's geopolitical game in the Pacific. While China cooperates transparently with Pacific nations to address urgent climate and development challenges, the West can only offer militarization and demands.
Judge Rules Kemp Must Testify in Trump Probe
On Mon., Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp was ordered to testify to Fulton County DA Fani Willis' grand jury investigating possible attempts by former Pres. Trump and his colleagues to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.
Judge Robert McBurney rejected Kemp's motion to quash the subpoena, ruling that sovereign immunity doesn't apply as Willis' investigation is criminal, not civil in nature. He also postponed Kemp's appearance until after the November election.
According to a previous court filing, Willis' office is soliciting Kemp's testimony to inquire about alleged pressure he faced after he denied Trump's claims of election fraud.
Democratic narrative
Despite his attempt to wiggle out of this, the judge has rightly ruled that Kemp isn't above the law. The delay in his testimony might help Kemp politically, but eventually, he's going to have to dish on Trump, and the grand jury will have more proof of the former president's criminal activity.
Pro-Trump narrative
This illegitimate, weaponized prosecution is merely an attempt to swing the polls before the midterms this fall, and suppress future criticism of elections. The First Amendment protects everyone's – even Trump's – right to question results when they suspect fraud.