Iran's FM Arrives in Saudi Arabia Amid Diplomatic Thaw
On Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian arrived in Riyadh for a one-day visit on his first official trip to Saudi Arabia since the two countries resumed diplomatic ties in March.
After meeting with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Iran's top diplomat announced in a joint press conference that relations between the two countries are "on the right track," citing "successful" talks.
Their 3.5-hour talks focused on cooperation in security, economy, trade, rescue operations, and the environment. Other issues concerning the Middle East, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, were also discussed, according to Iran's state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
Establishment-critical narrative
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian traveling to Saudi Arabia after his Saudi counterpart visited Iran in June is another significant step in normalizing bilateral ties. The only ones who have an interest in attacking the China-brokered détente and benefitting from regional discord are foreign powers like Israel and the US. However, this will not prevent Riyadh and Tehran from jointly striving for regional stability and developing a more secure and prosperous future.
Pro-establishment narrative
It would be premature to view Hossein Amir-Abdollahian's trip as another sign that Riyadh is pivoting away from the West in favor of Iran and China. While the China-brokered deal may represent a victory for Chinese diplomacy, Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is now back on track for a new US-backed push to normalize relations with Israel. Moreover, the Saudis and Kuwaitis are at odds with Tehran over a disputed gas field. The region is in transition, and it's not yet clear where developments will lead.
Nerd narrative
There's a 57% chance that Saudi Arabia will normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China Property Giant Evergrande Files for US Bankruptcy Protection
Property developer China Evergrande Group filed for bankruptcy protection in a Manhattan bankruptcy court on Thursday. In its filing, the company seeks recognition of restructuring talks ongoing in Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.
The company — which defaulted on its debts in 2021 — filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection to protect its assets in the US as it works on a multi-billion dollar deal with creditors.
In a separate statement, Evergrande highlighted that this application is "a normal procedure for the offshore debt restructuring and does not involve bankruptcy petition."
Narrative A
Two of China's biggest property developers have filed for bankruptcy protection in the past week, sending a chill through the international real-estate industry. There's no end in sight for the struggling Chinese real-estate sector, and it risks dragging down other sectors as well. It's a deep, structural crisis in property and construction caused by debt and demographic problems that will take years to resolve.
Narrative B
Evergrande's bankruptcy filing in the US should be seen as a normal procedure for a company that is trying to protect itself from creditors while finalizing a restructuring deal elsewhere. While China's property debt crisis is deepening, Evergrande Group, one of its most indebted companies, is too big to fail; therefore, its refinancing must be successful.
Report: Kyiv's Counteroffensive Will Fail to Meet Key Goal
According to a US intelligence assessment briefed to members of Congress, Ukraine's counteroffensive will likely fail to reach the southeastern city of Melitopol.
The US intelligence officials believe that if Kyiv fails to reach Melitopol, one of the key goals of the counteroffensive — to break up Moscow's control over Ukraine's southern regions, thereby severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea — may not be accomplished.
People familiar with the classified assessment told The Washington Post that Ukraine's forces — currently fighting for territory near the village of Robotyne — will fail to reach the occupied city as the Russian troops have set up miles-deep minefields to impede their advances.
Narrative A
Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine can penetrate Russia's multilayered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?
Narrative B
While the Ukrainian offensive may be advancing slowly against well-prepared Russian defensive lines, they continue to push forward and gain momentum in several axes of attack. Kyiv's forces will undoubtedly achieve their goals.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Georgia Police Investigate Threats Against Trump Jury
The Fulton County Sheriff's Office in Georgia said on Friday it's investigating alleged threats made against members of the grand jury that indicted former US Pres. Donald Trump this week after the jurors' personal information was disseminated online.
Reports have emerged that photographs, home addresses, and social media profiles that match the names of at least 13 out of the 26 jurors are circulating on far-right websites. In Georgia, the names of grand jury members are included in the indictment.
Alongside the personal information, threats have also reportedly been made against the jurors online, with the sheriff's office saying they're attempting to track down those responsible.
Democratic narrative
Trapped under a mountain of legal woes, Donald Trump has resorted to lashing out at those prosecuting him, fomenting violence. His long track record of disparaging and attacking government officials has emboldened his followers to threaten violence against those that are simply doing their job. Unless Trump rebukes violence and tones down his rhetoric, the violent threats will only continue in severity thanks to his tacit approval.
Pro-Trump narrative
The indictments against Donald Trump should never have been made in the first place, as it's a weaponized legal system, not Trump, that is inciting discontent and anger. The American people are upset about these blatantly political charges, which risk inflaming tensions in the country. These charges are clearly partisan and are robbing the voting public of making the ultimate judgment on Trump next year.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that Donald Trump will be disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ethiopia's Tigray Reports 1.4K Deaths After Food Aid Suspension
Tigray's Disaster Risk Management Commissioner Gebrehiwet Gebrezgabher has reported that at least 1,411 people have starved to death in the war-torn northern region of Ethiopia since food aid was halted about four months ago.
He stressed that the death toll could be even higher as data has only been collated from three out of Tigray's six zones — the east, north-west, and south-east — so far.
Starvation in the region has reportedly reached a serious level as the cold and rainy winter has aggravated the difficult situation, prompting the commissioner to urge the international community to restart humanitarian aid as soon as possible.
Establishment-critical narrative
It would be understandable that major donors decided to halt food aid delivery following news of large-scale theft involving Ethiopian government officials if they were seeking a quick fix to this deliberate mismanagement of the system. However, it hasn't been restored after several months, and vulnerable civilians are the ones being punished as they remain without access to basic nutrition.
Pro-establishment narrative
Taxpayer-funded assistance to foreign countries must not be confused with charity, as it's a tool that must be wisely used to support the national interest and produce real results for Americans. As a criminal network comprised of both sides of the Tigray conflict was outrageously playing the US for a fool by stealing food aid, it would be unacceptable for Washington to keep wasting its limited resources.
Nerd narrative
There's a 35% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tropical Storm Hilary Slams Southwest US and Baja California, Mexico
Tropical storm Hilary reached Southern California and the US Southwest Monday, bringing record-breaking downpours and the threat of flash flooding, landslides, and mudslides.
Though Hilary was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm, Friday marked the first time a tropical storm watch has been issued in California after the US National Hurricane Center issued the alert.
Despite losing some strength, Hilary is still expected to bring heavy rain through Tuesday after already causing roughly the equivalent of six months' worth of rain in some areas.
Narrative A
Scientists agree that climate change is making hurricanes worse and increasing the likelihood of dangerous powerful storms. Global warming is also increasing the amount of rain that storms can produce and rapidly intensifying the strength and reach of tropical systems. This trend is real and it is worrying. Governments need to take action against climate change before things get worse.
Narrative B
Global warming should not be the scapegoat for every extreme weather event. The major reason for an increase in hurricane-related damage is not due to an increase in the number or intensity of hurricanes, but rather because more people live within the paths of these storms. Rather than fearmongering, authorities should focus on reducing vulnerability along coastlines and rehabilitating wetlands.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that New York City will experience a hurricane by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
World Chess Bars Trans Players From Women's Events
The International Chess Federation (FIDE) has released new policies banning transgender players from women's events and stripping some trans women of their titles. The new rules will remain until "further analysis" is conducted, which could last two years.
FIDE says it will only recognize an individual's gender identity "consistent with the identity they maintain in their non chess life AND that has been confirmed by national authorities based on a due legal and formal process of change."
This doesn't mean trans players won't be able to compete at all, but they must provide "sufficient proof of a gender change that complies with their national laws and regulations." Furthermore, any player holding either a men's or women's title before transitioning will have their title "abolished."
Left narrative
Since the game of chess has nothing to do with one's physicality, FIDE is unable to hide behind the overused excuse of unfair athletic performance, suggesting that this decision really stems from an anti-trans mindset. In one fell swoop, FIDE has persecuted the trans community and patronized women by suggesting they're intellectually inferior to men. Chess is a game for everyone to enjoy equally, but the professional levels have yet to recognize that fact.
Right narrative
What critics won't tell you is that women already have a choice between competing in the general chess competitions, which are male-dominated, or in the women's tournaments, which are all female. The reason for this isn't that there aren't women in the elite category — although there are very few — but rather to offer women a higher chance of placing in a tournament. FIDE already had an inclusive and fair system underway, so this is nothing more than biological men trying to invade a female-only space.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the first female will win the World Chess Championship by 2110, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Maui Fires: County Emergency Manager Resigns
Herman Andaya, the Maui Emergency Management Agency Administrator — who defended his decision to not sound outdoor sirens while a deadly fire ravaged the island — has resigned from his position effective immediately.
Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen announced Andaya’s resignation in a news release Thursday, and the now-former administrator cited health reasons for his decision. This also follows close scrutiny of Maui's wildfire response.
On Wednesday, Andaya reaffirmed his decision to not activate alarms during the devastating wildfires in Lahaina that have now caused at least 111 confirmed deaths. No evacuation sirens sounded when the Aug. 8 fires broke out.
Left narrative
Climate change as well as a long history of land grabs are primary contributors to the devastating wildfires that destroyed Lahaina. In the 20th century, wealthy non-Hawaiians invaded the land to profit off of Hawaii’s resources. Exploitive land use patterns, invasive grasses, and climate change-catalyzed droughts caused this horrific tragedy.
Right narrative
There was certainly a confluence of underlying issues that contributed to the tragic wildfires in Maui, but climate change is far from being the main culprit if it is a cause at all. The resignation of Andaya is symbolic of deep institutional issues within Maui County's governance. While the corporate media looks to blame Lahaina’s tragedy on climate change, the public must focus on leaders and institutions who failed their communities.
Disney Files Another Lawsuit Against DeSantis' Oversight Board
While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has said he's "moved on" from the legal feud with Disney, the company has now reportedly filed counterclaims — including a breach of contracts claim against the board of supervisors picked by DeSantis to oversee Walt Disney World’s special tax district.
Disney says that while the land use agreement it had with the Reedy Creek Improvement District, which was voided by the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD), is under a new name, it's still legally the same organization. Accordingly, Disney says the agreement should be abided by under the new contract.
The company also argues that the CFTOD, which was given broad powers to oversee construction on Disney's land, has rendered it "powerless," and was established in violation of Florida law. It's also seeking an unspecified quantity in damages and is asking the court to declare its original agreement legal.
Democratic narrative
Disney is rightly fighting back against the authoritarian impulses of DeSantis, who has repeatedly weaponized Florida’s government to infringe on Disney’s First Amendment rights. The presidential hopeful has tied his political identity to fighting the absurdly characterized “woke” corporation. However, his real identity is his prejudice against LGBTQ+ people, as seen by his discriminatory laws. DeSantis cannot force Disney to abide.
Republican narrative
Disney has been badly losing its battle against DeSantis, and it will continue to do so. Not only does the corporation not have a moral ground to stand on, but it also lacks any legal argument for its ability to defy state law. Disney is shamefully committed to indoctrinating children with inappropriate content. Its behavior should not be rewarded with undeserved corporate welfare.
Report: Jordanian Intelligence Accused of Targeting LGBTQ+ Community
The Guardian reported on Friday that human rights groups have accused Jordan of using its internal security forces to intimidate members of the LGBTQ+ community by “outing” them to their families and of closing down two LGBTQ+ organizations. Activists have also reportedly been abducted, harassed, and surveilled.
The LGBTQ+ community has been increasingly targeted in Jordan in recent months, with activists pointing to the country's General Intelligence Directorate (GID) as the main perpetrator of the crackdown. The GID allegedly detained two activists and froze their bank accounts in January.
A senior researcher at Human Rights Watch reported that the government's goal was not to directly attack the LGBTQ+ community but rather weaponize society against it.
Pro-establishment narrative
Jordanian authorities are not only attacking the LGBTQ+ community but civil liberties in Jordan as a whole. The international community must put pressure on the Jordanian government to end its crackdown on personal freedoms.
Establishment-critical narrative
One should always keep in mind that attitudes in the Middle East regarding the LGBTQ+ community are, in many cases, the product of European colonialism. Many of the penal codes used against the community originate from the colonial period, when occupying authorities — who viewed many non-Western societies as hyper-permissive — brought in such codes to defend so-called "moral purity."
Narrative C
The current moral panic in the Middle East regarding the LGBTQ+ community actually seems to reflect the current culture wars occurring in the US regarding the same community. In the entire region, from Turkey, and Lebanon to Iraq and Jordan, this small minority community is under attack as politicians attempt to drum up support for their political aspirations.