Court Rules South Africa's Zuma Eligible for Election
The Electoral Court of South Africa on Tuesday overturned a ruling banning former Pres. Jacob Zuma from running for office in the May 29 general election, allowing him to contest the presidential race for the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK).
Zuma had previously been disqualified from the ballot on the grounds that anyone found guilty of a crime and given a jail term longer than 12 months is constitutionally prohibited from seeking public office.
Narrative A
As if Zuma being allowed to run for office despite an equivocal constitutional case against him wasn't enough, the court has so far outrageously avoided issuing its reasoning. It's urgent that the court explains how its verdict was reached, otherwise the electoral process will lack credibility.
Narrative B
The strict deadlines of the Electoral Commission prompted the court to issue a hurried order without reason. A written judgment is expected to be delivered next week. Yet, it's very likely that the main reason for this verdict is the fact that Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa handed Zuma a remission of sentence in a bid to avoid riots, effectively reducing his sentence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that the ANC will receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia Foreign Minister Floats Recognition of Palestinian Statehood
Australia's Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, on Tuesday, said that the two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict was "the only hope to break the endless cycle of violence," implying Canberra could recognize Palestinian statehood.
Arguing that a Palestine state would be supportive of Israel and be detrimental to Hamas and Iran, Wong called on the Israeli government to halt its Rafah invasion plan and modify its military campaign to protect civilians.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The Oslo Accords, signed in 1993, aimed to establish peace between Israel and Palestine but have failed due to various factors, such as settlement expansions and leadership issues. To rectify this, a paradigm shift is crucial, starting with the recognition of Palestinian statehood and equal negotiations. The current imbalance must be corrected for a just and lasting peace — potentially through global arbitration mechanisms on behalf of the Palestinian people.
Pro-Israel narrative
Some nations' move to push for official recognition of a Palestinian state contradicts efforts for mutual Israeli-Palestinian recognition within a responsible two-state solution framework that also meets Israel's national security needs. These efforts lack a legal and historical basis, especially as Palestinian leadership fails to meet essential statehood criteria. It could encourage terrorism and be detrimental to regional stability.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by November 2061, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Says Netanyahu Making 'Mistake' on Gaza, Calls for Ceasefire
After weeks of growing international pressure on Israel — over both the humanitarian situation and the growing death toll in Gaza — US Pres. Joe Biden issued some of his harshest criticism yet of Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu.
"I think what he’s doing is a mistake," Biden told Univision, a US Spanish-language TV network, in an interview released on Tuesday. "I don’t agree with his approach," Biden added.
Pro-establishment narrative
Pres. Biden's recent comments underscore the growing rift between himself and Netanyahu. The US leader has sent a clear signal that unless Israel changes course in Gaza, America will have to re-evaluate its policies with the country.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has been working hard to increase the amount of aid going into Gaza, resulting in the largest numbers of trucks entering the enclave since the start of the war. A US official has confirmed there has been no change policy with respect to Israel, so speculation of a diplomatic breakdown will just create unnecessary instability.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that the US will intervene within the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Stock Market Falls as Inflation Rises
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed Wednesday that inflation jumped from 3.2% year-over-year in February to 3.5% in March. Meanwhile, 12-month core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 3.8%.
Following the report, which shows gasoline and housing accounted for half the price hike, the Dow Jones stock market index dropped by over 500 points or 1.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell 1%.
Republican narrative
While the president can't control the whole economy, his policies on cars have been one of the leading causes of this inflationary crisis. Car insurance and repairs, which are up 22% and 12%, respectively, are due to Biden's push for electric vehicles. As gas prices soar and the White House pushes its electric vehicle agenda, Americans have been forced by the federal government to pay exorbitant amounts of money. The Biden administration must own this.
Democratic narrative
America's economic debate has unfortunately been pushed into a partisan one based on perception rather than reality. Despite inflation cascading down from its post-COVID peak and both employment and wages increasing, Republican politicians have defaulted to toxic rhetoric to stain the Biden presidency ahead of his re-election bid. Today's headlines should be about Democrats containing inflation while also forgiving student loans and expanding healthcare.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that annual US core CPI inflation will be above 3% in December 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
School Shooter's Parents Receive Maximum Sentences
Jennifer and James Crumbley, who were tried and convicted separately of involuntary manslaughter for not stopping their teenage son from carrying out a school shooting, were each sentenced Tuesday to 10-15 years in prison.
The sentences handed down by an Oakland County Circuit judge matched the maximum permissible under the law and what prosecutors had requested. This case marked the first time parents of a mass school shooter were charged with involuntary manslaughter.
Narrative A
These cases mark a change in the application of firearms law for the better. By making this into a gun safety issue — which even the most ardent supporter of the Second Amendment should be able to get behind — prosecutors can hold gun owners responsible for failing to keep their firearms safe, secure, and away from those who may use them for wrongdoings.
Narrative B
These parents never should've been charged — never mind convicted and sentenced. The Crumbleys didn't break any law that exists on the books, as they didn't do, plan, or participate in their son's crime. This is opening a Pandora's Box for future criminal prosecution of people who haven't broken the law but may be loosely connected to someone who does.
Nerd narrative
There is a 0.1% chance that the Second Amendment, as written and in force on December 13th, 2018, will be successfully amended or repealed before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: NHS to Review All Transgender Treatment
Following the publication of a review by pediatrician Dr. Hilary Cass on Wednesday, NHS England said it would suspend first appointments for under-18s at adult gender clinics and conduct a major review of its gender and hormone treatments.
The Cass Review — commissioned by the NHS in 2020 — found that a toxic political debate and a lack of research and "good evidence" on the use of puberty blockers had failed British children seeking gender care.
Narrative A
Dr. Cass's review shines a spotlight on the need to develop holistic care plans for vulnerable children who are being transferred to adult services to clear the children's clinics' waiting list without question, hampering medical and scientific progress in the area. The NHS must establish fundamentally different gender identity services, free from culture wars, as children and young people seeking to manage gender-related distress have the right to be treated with compassion.
Narrative B
Though the review could be termed a watershed moment for the NHS's gender identity services, it risks stigmatizing gender-diverse children. Moreover, pausing puberty blockers, cross-sex hormone therapy, and universal access to healthcare for trans youth will adversely impact the community. Dr. Cass's review should be open to interpretation as it could be used to justify new barriers to accessing mental and physical healthcare transgender people need and deserve.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that will Russia repeal or amend its laws that prohibit gender-affirming health care by September 2044, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
House Conservatives Threaten to Block FISA Renewal
A faction of the US House Republican majority is threatening to block the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which allows the government to collect Americans' communications if they're connected to foreigners abroad.
Those opposed to the bill, including GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida and Tim Burchett of Tennessee, are particularly focused on including a warrant requirement to conduct such surveillance.
Pro-establishment narrative
Section 702 has been a crucial tool for law enforcement and there are more than enough FBI policies to ensure the government can fight crime while safeguarding Americans' privacy. A warrant requirement, however, would prevent the government from efficiently doing this and put national security at risk.
Establishment-critical narrative
In addition to leaving out a warrant requirement, this bill expands the government's Section 702 capabilities — making it too easy to violate citizens' right to privacy. Surveillance hawks seem determined to end privacy in America as we know it.
Report: Over 10M Children Exposed to War in Sudan
The British-based charity Save the Children claimed in a report published on Wednesday that more than 10M children have been within a five-kilometer radius (3.1 mi) of an active warzone during the yearlong conflict in Sudan.
This figure shows a 60% increase from the 6.6M children exposed to violence in the first month of fighting, meaning that one in two Sudanese children have now been exposed to battles, bombings, and other attacks.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite the continued outcries of international aid groups, the world has done little to bring Sudan's crisis to an end. Both warring sides have faced little public criticism for human rights violations and the UN Security Council took nearly a year to call for a cease-fire. The international community must wake up and take responsibility for this crisis.
Pro-establishment narrative
The international community remains steadfast in its commitment to help Sudan. Without an end to the ongoing conflict, the security of the entirety of East Africa may be at stake. International support and aid must continue to be encouraged as the UN and its mediation teams remain set on securing a sustainable and peaceful future for the region.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that South Sudan will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by July 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Arizona Supreme Court Upholds 1864 Abortion Ban
The Arizona Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled the state can enforce an 1864 law that bans all abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest and allows abortion only to save the life of the mother.
The 4-2 decision declared the law, which predates Arizona's statehood, as "now enforceable." But the court put the ruling on hold for 14 days so a lower court could hear additional arguments about the law's constitutionality.
Republican narrative
Whether it's Arizona's all-out ban or other states' restrictions on abortion, this is how federalism works — SCOTUS sent the power to regulate abortion to the states and they're doing just that. Democrats, who want to allow abortion with no restrictions, are going to protest any regulation. If the people disagree with the laws, they'll vote for new representation.
Democratic narrative
While unfortunate for the women of Arizona — who seemingly are having their rights rolled back by a century — this ruling is a gift to Democrats in the same week Trump declared abortion to be a states' rights issue. Now the American people can see the cruel laws that could be enacted under GOP control, and they can vote accordingly this November.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
EU Narrowly Passes Pact on Migration and Asylum
The European Union on Wednesday voted on a controversial set of reforms regarding migration and asylum rules as the 27-nation bloc's parliament passed the Pact on Migration and Asylum in a series of 10 votes.
EU states had been working to approve the pact since 2015 when Europe’s migrant crisis exploded due to 1.3M refugees fleeing from Syria and Iraq. Over the last nine years, there has been fierce debate over the EU's migration policy and responsibilities.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a major step toward solving problems related to migration and asylum, and the EU should be proud it came to a compromise despite those on the extremes attempting to undermine an agreement. The EU has prioritized common sense and compassion in a way that will improve Europe’s immigration system for years to come.
Establishment-critical narrative
The EU continues to ignore the will of its people when it comes to mass migration. Both sides of the political aisle are fed up with Brussels' out-of-touch approach to dealing with an issue that's fundamentally and permanently damaging Europe. Europe has a major migration issue that must be addressed at a deep level.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 40% of Germany’s population will have a migrant background in 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.