Narrative A

In light of the Reuters findings about the government-run secret killing squad operating in Oromia, it's obvious that security forces are behind the murder of Bate Urgessa. Oromo political and cultural figures have long been subject to a systematic effort to silence dissent.

Narrative B

It's irresponsible and outrageous that some political entities have decided to exploit the shocking killing of Bate Urgessa to promote anti-government propaganda and try to compensate for political losses. Investigations are underway to bring perpetrators to justice.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This loan is an acknowledgment by the UK of the artifacts' spiritual and cultural significance to the Asante people. Although the objects form only a part of the Asante collections, this loan includes most of the key works to right some of the wrongs of Britain's colonial past.

Narrative B

This is a welcomed first step, but it must be seen as a first step toward the full-time return of the artifacts, otherwise, this is an embarrassment. The wounds of the past will only really begin to heal once the Asante cultural heritage returns to Ghana for good.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Kwasi Kwarteng will become UK Conservative Party Leader before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Bogotá's water supply infrastructure has been plagued by systemic problems and aggravated by the authorities' unresponsiveness. Amid the government's ambitious aims to ensure universal water access by 2030, concerns remain over investment and institutional accountability. This systemic governance problem underscores many Colombians' daily struggles with water access and the urgent need for sustainable solutions.

Narrative B

As Colombia's population increases, urbanizes, and consumes more water daily, its natural water sources face growing threats from agriculture, development, and climate stress. In places like Chingaza National Park, pressures from human activities necessitate conservation efforts. Multiple initiatives are already working on preserving water sources and enhancing governance. Much more needs to be done but progress is being made.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that humans will be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System by September 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

This trilateral summit has sent a clear message to China that it can't walk all over its neighbors. A growth in relations between the three countries is a strategic advantage, as well as a necessity to counter PRC meddling. With the help of two of the world's three largest economies, the Philippines can finally take a stand against continued Chinese aggression.

Pro-China narrative

Tricked by the fickle promises of a self-serving power that's seeking to use it as a vessel for American interests, the Philippines has decided to side with the US despite its historical ties to China. By following America's path, the Philippines has increased its chances of being placed in harm's way as part of the West's wider hegemonic game to undermine China's prosperity.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that there will be an armed conflict between the Philippines and China causing at least 100 deaths before Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

There's no way for American manufacturers to compete on an equal playing field with subsidized Chinese EVs. Allowing these cars on US roads would be a major blow to the US auto industry, destroying the United Auto Workers and the union's ability to boost wages. These PRC-made vehicles also represent a significant national security concern since the Chinese Communist Party will be able to collect a considerable amount of sensitive data. President Biden urgently needs to ban Chinese EVs.

Pro-China narrative

The outlandish notion that PRC EVs pose a national security threat to the US is an accusation China is all too familiar with when Washington attempts to shut down Chinese companies or industries without providing any evidence. The US is once again using protectionism to defend its hegemonic interests while limiting the competitiveness of others. It's not acceptable to use non-market measures to avoid global market competition.

Nerd narrative

There is a 60% chance a legacy automaker will go bankrupt before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

These Russian attacks — including on Ukraine's largest power station in Kyiv — simply would not have happened if Ukraine had the weapons it needed to defend itself — including more US-made Patriot missile defense systems. Ukraine needs these weapons as soon as possible.

Pro-Russia narrative

For humanitarian reasons, Russia did not strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure throughout the winter. However, after a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory — including on the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow — the country was forced to respond. It's now up to Ukrainian people to see sense and call for negotiations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Ukraine will sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Lake, who has denied election results and promoted conspiracy theories, can not be trusted for a good-faith position on this issue. She lost her governor's race by a slim margin and is desperate to seem moderate enough to gain a few votes in her Senate race. But what she should be saying isn't that the 1864 law should be repealed, but explaining why her stance has changed since her 2022 interview. She owes the voters at least that much.

Republican narrative

It's easy to see where Lake's position on abortion has shifted for the better and in line with much of the American electorate. Obviously, there must be more exceptions than the 1864 law provides. By overturning Roe v. Wade, SCOTUS rightly turned responsibility for abortion restrictions to the states. But the states should determine their abortion laws with the will of the people in mind.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While Iran is likely to retaliate in some capacity — probably by continuing its trend of using proxy fighters to hit US or Israeli assets abroad — it has neither the military might nor political strength to enter its people into a full-scale war with the West. Israel and its allies have also already transported their citizens to safe zones and prepared their defense mechanisms, which means Iran has two choices — play "small ball" or make a larger move and risk being crushed by a Western counterattack.

Establishment-critical narrative

Iran knows full well that it can't go to war with Israel and the US, but that doesn't mean that its regional neighbors are going to help the West instigate further escalation. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are currently working to keep the US from launching any counterattacks from its bases located in their countries. The entire region has no desire for war, but Israel deserves to face an equal response without drawing the rest of the world into this mess.

Nerd narrative

There's a 49% chance that Iran will carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

When this story broke, the public was quick to crucify baseball’s brightest star without any knowledge of the situation. Weeks later, it appears Ohtani is actually the victim in this situation. Thursday’s court filing shows the extreme depths of Mizuhara's betrayal of his friend and boss. Ohtani should be rightfully exonerated in both MLB and the court of public opinion.

Narrative B

Baseball has always been sensitive to matters involving gambling, so it shouldn't turn a blind eye to Ohtani’s potential involvement in this scandal. Baseball must probe how Ohtani didn't notice the money missing and whether he knew more about his friend's gambling issues. Ohtani's celebrity shouldn't protect him from crucial scrutiny.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the last baseball World Series will be played by Aug. 2091, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

On top of not being the solution, ousting Mike Johnson from speakership would effectively be counterproductive. After the chaos that followed Rep. Matt Gaetz's motion to remove Kevin McCarthy, the GOP cannot afford more turmoil ahead of an already uphill battle in the 2024 election.

Conservative narrative

Mike Johnson has already abandoned his constituents to work alongside the Democrats, so what's the point in worrying about how his removal could impact future House leadership? As it stands, it would be better — or at least less harmful — for Republicans to vote him out and prevent further bad legislation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that Mike Johnson will remain Speaker for all of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.