Narrative A

As the UAE moves to pour money on Western governments to buy diplomatic pull, it's important to remember that the Gulf nation is not aligned with Western values. Though economic considerations should play a role in diplomatic and strategic negotiations, Western leaders mustn't compromise their broader obligations. They need to remain aware of what the UAE really wants, and put their sovereign democracies above Emirati funds.

Narrative B

While there are certainly differences between the UAE and the West, the Gulf state is a pivotal ally to many European countries. With its booming economy and robust investment funds, the UAE has become a global leader in technology and innovation, so it's very prudent to pursue partnerships with the country instead of alienating it. The UAE is working to become a conduit that connects all factions of the world to promote global prosperity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that controlled AI chips will be smuggled into China through the United Arab Emirates before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

The outrageous decision makes a mockery of Israel's existential struggle against terrorism and turns reality on its head, as it was Hamas that started the war. Moreover, "Palestine" doesn't meet the most basic requirements of statehood, and the shocking move only rewards Hamas jihadists and the Tehran regime while undermining any hope for peace. Israel will not stand idly by and will continue to defend itself until Hamas is defeated and all remaining hostages are freed.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The announcement is a historic and long overdue step that signals to Palestinians that they have an explicit and fundamental right to self-determination. Moreover, state recognition aims to bolster moderate Palestinian forces that lost ground due to Israel's unprecedented military aggression. 142 of the 193 UN member states already recognize Palestine — and now other states must follow their conscience before Israel destroys the remaining basis for statehood.

Nerd narrative

There is a 69% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

AP was broadcasting the movements of Israeli forces, thus putting these troops in danger. Nonetheless, the decision to seize the equipment has been reversed pending a fuller investigation from the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Narrative B

Israeli officials made a wrong-headed decision. Such authoritarian actions — resembling moves by states like Russia or North Korea — only degrade the image of Israel in the eyes of the foreign media.

Nerd narrative

There's a 68% chance that there will be 1K or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-establishment narrative

The right to process is a vital part of democracy. However, we have seen on too many occasions that the actions of extremists go beyond what can be defined as peaceful protest, and police have been restricted by insufficient powers to respond. These measures are intended to protect democratic processes from disruption and intimidation.

Establishment-critical narrative

The court's ruling to quash the government's attempt to introduce more police powers to crack down on protests through the backdoor is a win for democracy and greatly welcomed. The government should listen to the complaints of protestors rather than seek to have them shut down and arrested.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that the UK will have a Conservative PM at the beginning of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Sunak has called this surprise early election because he realizes that no further progress will be made in his chaotic administration. Hopefully, the UK will find stability once Labour returns to office because, under Sunak's leadership, the country remains far from its much-promised economic recovery and his controversial Rwanda immigration plan is a disaster.

Right narrative

This was the best time for Sunak to call an early election because the economy is enjoying growth and falling inflation, and the first Rwanda flights are expected soon — giving him a chance to prove this plan is the right one. Sunak might win over Britons and remain in office.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the Conservative Party will form the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

The chickens are coming home to roost for Republicans nationwide who spread — and in some cases continue to spread — lies about the 2020 presidential election. There are now co-conspirators charged in four states, including Arizona. These people didn't just break the law, they sowed doubt about the legitimacy of elections and institutions, and it's important they face the consequences.

Pro-Trump narrative

Cases like this one — which are happening across the country — are blatant election interference by those trying to stop Trump from returning to the presidency. Every American has First Amendment rights, including the right to object to election results. These cases should all be thrown out of court.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that the next US presidential election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand, and the Biden administration will not support any further offensive action in Rafah. Netanyahu must keep his promises and work with US allies to find a resolution to this conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has reached a decisive point in Gaza. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to Israel's enemies that the country is weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is already far beyond catastrophic, and Israel's brutal offensive on Rafah has displaced almost 1M people — most of whom were already living in tent camps. Israeli crimes keep stacking up, yet the international community and the US refuse to do anything meaningful to stop the carnage.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that an independent review will find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

In addition to its growing societal acceptance, cannabis is generally less harmful than alcohol or tobacco, which makes legal marijuana a public health victory. It's time to end the war on cannabis and bring policy in line with the public desire for legalization.

Right narrative

Cannabis' risk to mental health and addiction is still unclear and its proliferation as a legal substance is nothing to celebrate. Daily use could be a huge risk factor for schizophrenia and other disorders. We need far more research before we proceed with expanding access to this drug.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

After banning virtually any and all abortion procedures, the anti-abortion lawmakers of Louisiana want to make sure anyone trying to help women is living in fear, too. While doctors are already limiting their use of mifepristone and misoprostol, other patient supporters will now risk spending five, or possibly 10 years in prison for simply possessing one of these pills.

Narrative B

Louisiana law clearly states that abortion, including through the use of pills, is illegal. Despite this, many pro-abortion individuals and businesses have illegally sold them online and on the street — most alarmingly to children — and thus put girls and women at risk of serious health issues. With this illegal trade running rampant, it makes sense to begin treating it as a drug crime.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 55% of US states will be granted Casey-era abortion rights on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The FBI's unconstitutional raid of the former president's residence seemed unfairly violent on the surface. This filing shows how far the Biden administration and the Democratic Party were willing to go to try to derail Trump's return to the White House. Now it's more difficult to deny this is a political witch hunt.

Anti-Trump narrative

Unsurprisingly, Trump and his campaign are blowing the wording in this filing out of proportion to deceive the public and play the victim. The FBI has already demonstrated it conducted its search in adherence with standard DOJ protocols. But Trump is trying to play up his victim status in order to drum up more fundraising.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump's classified documents case won't begin before Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.