Narrative A

Starmer's purge of the party's left wing is outrageous and unacceptable. While Abbott has made mistakes and may not see eye to eye on policy with Starmer, Labour's treatment towards one of its most historic and respected figures has been neither fair nor equal to the punishment given to numerous white men within the party. Labour has alienated the entirety of its progressive base, who have now been left without a major political party willing to fight for a better future.

Narrative B

While currently perceived as an unnecessary and self-induced political disaster, Starmer has pulled the trigger on a tough but necessary decision in order for his party to win the general election. Irrespective of Abbott's fate, Starmer's intent is a clear signal of Labour's future direction that will likely reassure the wider voting population in the long term.

Narrative C

Abbott should not be forgiven for her antisemitic comments, and Labour's botched internal investigation highlights the party's complete and utter incompetence. While unlikely to affect the general election outcome, Starmer's weakness and Labour's moral hypocrisy should come as no surprise to the British public.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It has become quite common in Mexico for criminal organizations to engage in pre-election violence at the municipal level as influence over local power is crucial to their business and much easier to hold than at a state or federal level. This was their latest — but certainly not their last — attempt to get their preferred candidate elected.

Narrative B

While there is indeed a correlation between gang violence and political violence in some Mexican states, this oversimplification fails to explain how political violence can be high despite relatively low levels of gang-related crimes. Power dynamics and local-level disputes also contribute to this worrisome trend.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that the US will deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

With the Budget 2024, the coalition government has made good on its electoral promise to give New Zealanders their first tax cuts in 14 years as they endure a prolonged cost-of-living crisis, benefitting low and middle-income households and families with young children the most. Māori or not, everyone will be in a better position now.

Narrative B

While tax cuts included in this year's budget do benefit white New Zealanders, this isn't true for the Māori people as the package targets employed people. As public departments will have to cut their costs, thousands of public service staff will lose their jobs — and that's particularly harmful to the Māori.

Anti-Trump narrative

This verdict shows that no one, not even a former president, is above the rule of law in America. Furthermore, it serves as a reminder ahead of the presidential election that Trump is unfit for office due to an incurable impulse to break the law for political gains — and his lack of moral virtue.

Pro-Trump narrative

Following a politically motivated trial that was anything but fair, Trump was found guilty of something that has yet to be explained since jurors were told they didn't have to agree on what he did wrong. In the face of such a travesty of justice, it's up to voters to protect the rule of law and vote out Biden.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Donald Trump will be elected to be US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

AI enables rapid, large-scale dissemination of false content, undermining trust in systems like democracy. Despite some state actions and federal efforts, there are no comprehensive laws to counteract these threats. Policymakers must enforce regulations to label AI-generated content, protect voters, and ensure public involvement in AI policy decisions to safeguard democracy from these emerging risks.

Narrative B

The world must avoid being overly restrictive in formulating AI regulations, as this could stifle innovation. A balanced, dynamic approach to assessing AI risks is key, exploring new high-risk tech as needed. AI's potential for public opinion manipulation and copyright violations must be curbed, no doubt. However, nations must surely tap its advantages and maximize its benefits for their people.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country will be widely attributed to an AI-based system before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Austin-Dong meeting proves that the US is doing its utmost to ease bilateral tensions for the benefit of the international community. In Singapore, Austin reiterated that Washington remains committed to its long-standing one-China policy, but that Beijing should cease its provocative actions around the Taiwan Strait. The US remains committed to regional peace and stability — but will not be deterred from continuing to fly, sail, and operate under international law.

Establishment-critical narrative

It is to China's credit that it agreed to a direct meeting between Dong and Austin despite the US saber-rattling in the South China Sea and its interference in China's internal affairs concerning Taiwan. While Washington tirelessly portrays China as a threat, it's Washington and its allies who — trapped in a Cold War mentality — intentionally undermine regional peace and stability. China prefers dialog but is prepared to use its military to protect its sovereignty and interests.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that the People's Republic of China will control at least half of Taiwan before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This decision, which applies only in the areas near Kharkiv, only enables Ukraine to strike Russian troops as they attack or prepare to attack and will help Ukraine better defend itself. There's no change in the broader policy of not permitting strikes on non-military sites as well as targets deep inside Russia.

Pro-Russia narrative

This is a dangerous escalation of the conflict. Russia has no choice but to eliminate these long-range weapons, in addition to the NATO personnel required to operate them, which will inevitably lead to NATO countries invoking Article 5 on collective defense. A global war is all but inevitable after this reckless move on the part of the US.

Nerd narrative

There's a 21% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to get aid into Gaza, including putting pressure on Israel to open the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings. However, this is a complex situation, and the cooperation of other actors, such as Egypt, is necessary for aid to be properly distributed. The Biden admin. always welcomes diverse points of view, and the NSM-20 report on the humanitarian situation in Gaza reflects that.

Establishment-critical narrative

The lengths the Biden admin. will go to cover for Israel's crimes in Gaza are unprecedented — even as more and more officials resign over White House-driven policies. The US has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire, yet pretends that it is pressuring Israel to stop the war.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 500,000 Palestinians will be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Sudan has been on a path toward famine since earlier this year, with over 8M people displaced and 18M going hungry. While neighboring countries have heroically opened their borders to refugees, and the EU gave Egypt $9B for expected arrivals, the world's more wealthy countries must take a stronger stance before Sudan collapses entirely. If this conflict, coupled with what's going on in Gaza, isn't fixed now, countries in the Middle East and Europe will face overwhelming migration.

Establishment-critical narrative

As one of the most agriculturally fertile places in Africa, Sudan should not be facing famine. However, thanks to Western intervention, such as the US-backed secession of what's now called South Sudan to gain control of its oil, Sudan has been turned upside down, with warring factions filling the political vacuum. While the UN repeatedly warns of famine, the Western elites who fund bad-faith operations appear to have no desire to fix the mess they've created.

Nerd narrative

There is a 51% chance that no presidential election is held in South Sudan in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Roberts was right to shoot down the Democrats' invitation. Congressional Democrats have had it in for conservative justices for years and even used a portion of their letter to Roberts to complain about Justice Clarence Thomas in addition to Alito. Democrats are seemingly never going to quit pursuing these justices over nothing, and Roberts is absolutely correct to not indulge them.

Left narrative

Roberts has again proven why he'll probably go down in history as one of the most problematic chief justices ever. Even if he doesn't deem it wise to meet with Democrats, Roberts could at least take steps to implement strict ethics rules for judges. This would reassure legislators and the public that there won't be any improprieties involving future cases. Instead, he continues to stymie every attempt to hold SCOTUS accountable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that there will be any change in the composition of SCOTUS in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.