Pro-China narrative

This successful landing shows the PRC's engineering prowess in space exploration. This mission — China's most complex robotic lunar endeavor to date — will provide an unprecedented comparison between the dark, unexplored region and the better-known near side and also be a key milestone in China's push to become a dominant space power.

Anti-China narrative

A surge in missions to the moon is unfolding worldwide — a dangerous trend driven by the intent to dominate and monopolize the moon's resources for commercial purposes. China's growing space power, in particular, is a matter of grave concern, as Beijing may claim territoriality and leverage it to further its regional and domestic political and military interests.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the next human being will walk on the moon by May 25, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The scandalous and unprecedented verdict against Trump is the latest proof that the US justice system is broken. However, Americans have a keen sense of justice, which is why the politically manufactured trial against Biden's primary political opponent will backfire on Democrats. Trump is the victim of selective prosecution, and he has every reason to believe that a prison sentence would improve rather than worsen his presidential prospects.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump is well advised to prepare for jail time or house arrest after being found guilty in the historic trial. Ironically, the very man who constantly claims to be a champion of law and order is now a convicted felon. Likewise, it's reckless for Trump to claim the trial was rigged while, as president, he would destroy the US justice system and undermine democracy. Americans understand that Trump is threatening the very idea of America, and this should benefit Biden.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Despite accusations of having a male-dominated culture and negative biases against female leaders, Mexico has become the first North American country to elect a woman as head of government — and her closest rival was a woman as well. This is a clear culmination of a gender parity framework that has been in place for decades in the country.

Narrative B

It's all too convenient to praise gender parity policies for this outcome when Sheinbaum is, in fact, just another female protégé appointed by a populist Latin American leader who can't run for re-election. Given that this story is reminiscent of Dilma Rousseff's rise in Brazil, one can only hope for better luck for Mexico.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that Mexico will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Disappointingly, China — typically a strong, independent nation — has become an instrument of the Kremlin regime. Russia has been using Chinese diplomats, as well as China's influence in Asia, to discourage countries from attending the Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland.

Pro-Russia narrative

Whatever comes out of the Ukrainian Peace Summit is null and void. How can you try to have a negotiated settlement to the war with only one side of the conflict? If Ukraine is real about bringing the war to an end, it must negotiate with Russia.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Data from the three suspects' phones shows that they were in contact with another man whose role in a previous suspected Russian interference operation is being probed. This is clearly Russia trying to foment agitation to discredit France's unwavering support of Ukraine.

Establishment-critical narrative

As the motives of the three men remain unknown, it's premature to blame Moscow for France's security lapse. Instead of investigating the incident as a possible interference by a foreign power, French officials must focus on closing security loopholes.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

A prosecutor and a judge both appointed by Trump are determined to humiliate the Biden family in this clearly retaliatory case, in light of Trump's own legal travails. Hunter has been open about his addiction and his recovery, and the case is more about his father than the rarely ever pursued charge of addict-in-possession. The GOP is doing everything they can to distract from Trump and sully the Biden name.

Republican narrative

No one is above the law, as Democrats like to remind the country, and the son of the president is no exception. Hunter Biden detailed his crimes in his very own memoir, and his legal team has been relying on technicalities to get the case thrown out. For once in his life, his powerful father cannot stop Hunter from facing the consequences of his actions, as he finally gets his day in court.

Nerd narrative

There is a 49% chance that Joe Biden is re-elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. If Hamas is ready to engage constructively, the Israeli government must stand behind the cease-fire plan. Biden is calling time on the war — Netanyahu must seize this moment and stop the fighting.

Pro-Israel narrative

Biden's deception threatens Israel's very existence. If this deal goes through, Hamas will stay in power, and the security situation will return to the status quo of Oct. 6. However, unlike in the past, Israel would have no deterrence against terrorist threats. Israel must push ahead and destroy Hamas entirely.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Though this deal, which is nearly identical to earlier proposals that Hamas has already agreed to, must go through, it is too little too late. Israel has massacred over 35K Palestinians in Gaza, yet it has taken months even to approach a deal due to Israeli intransigence. Regardless of how this war ends, Israel must face accountability for its many crimes.

Nerd narrative

There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The border problem is nearly impossible to solve, especially when Republicans are blocking comprehensive, bipartisan legislation just to make Pres. Biden look bad. This report shows just how overwhelmed the immigration system is, but at least Biden is implementing executive orders to relieve some of the pressure.

Republican narrative

As the election looms, Biden is frantically, and farcically, attempting to show the country he's tough on illegal immigration. But the problem is that throughout his term in office, he's shown the opposite, including what this report shows. The president continues making the country less safe and he must be defeated in November.

Progressive narrative

A Democratic president should be helping, not hurting, those who seek a better life in America, but instead, Biden is playing politics and returning the country to the day of ineffective, racist border policies prior to the election. Biden should be pouring money into streamlining the application process instead of toughening restrictions on vulnerable immigrants seeking asylum.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 5.79%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

What a shame that Lewis has decided to gut the Post and appoint his buddies and former coworkers to top jobs. Morale at the Post has bottomed out and Lewis is putting financial maneuvers ahead of insightful and hard-hitting journalism at a crucial time in the US and the world.

Narrative B

In the face of union squabbles, layoffs, internal discord, and an exodus of newsroom veterans, something has to be done to steady the ship. The harsh reality is that Lewis must take decisive action to save this historic paper from irrelevance and begin its turnaround.

Nerd narrative

There's a 47% chance that GB News will be broadcasting in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The House’s investigation into the origins of the pandemic and the government’s response confirm the suspicions of millions of Americans who wouldn't accept the establishment narrative. From enforced social distancing, to mask mandates for children, to forced inoculations, it appears that the government was making up arbitrary rules at best, and at worst, exercising brutal tyranny. Fauci and everyone else involved should pay for their crimes against the public.

Democratic narrative

Republicans went full tin foil hat during Fauci’s hearing, espousing conspiracy theories with no basis in reality. The pandemic started more than four years ago, and nothing suggests that Fauci or any government officials were involved in a cover-up scheme or lab leak. When Republicans weren’t yelling over him, Fauci was able to disabuse their arguments and explain how his agency was able to save the lives of millions by promoting safety measures and vaccinations.

Nerd narrative

There is an 8% chance that, before Jan. 1, 2025, at least two public health agencies will claim that COVID more likely than not originated in a laboratory, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

After years of being disappointed by the Conservatives, British voters will finally get a legitimate alternative that will put the UK first. The Tories have failed to implement any of the policies their voters wanted, and illegal immigration continues to ravage the country. Nigel Farage has been one of Britain’s fiercest patriots, and it’s about time that Brits actually vote for someone rather than against their opponents. The Tories had their chance, and they had no right to complain about Reform’s challenge.

Right narrative

Nigel Farage's flip-flop on standing in next month's election shows that he's all about himself and isn't concerned with helping the UK. Farage running as Reform's leader will only take away votes from the Conservatives and ensure that Labour will have a large majority in parliament. Farage has made everything about himself, and he's only offering complaints about the UK’s current state, not any solutions. Farage's vanity run won't accomplish anything.

Left narrative

Nigel Farage is extremely problematic. While his candidacy won’t secure Reform a majority in parliament, it could inflict major damage on the Tories. While Farage’s brand of politics is more overtly odious and xenophobic than the Conservative mainstream, it's unlikely that he can form a formidable coalition, even if right-wingers are disillusioned with Sunak and the Tories. Overall, Farage may win a petty dispute with the Tories, but that's about it.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Labour will win at least 415 seats in the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.