05 June 2024

Daily Newsletter

Nigeria's Unions Halt Nationwide Strike

The Facts

  • Nigeria's main union federations, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), suspended an indefinite strike for a week on Tuesday to resume talks over a new minimum wage.

  • Pres. Bola Tinubu has arranged a closed-door meeting with government officials and union representatives, ordering his finance minister to present a new minimum wage figure within two days to negotiate with unions.


The Spin

Narrative A

It's no secret that the high inflation rate has damaged the Nigerian economy, causing unprecedented poverty levels and price hikes. However, as the actual costs in the country remain lower than abroad, the government must focus on boosting purchasing power rather than addressing inflation — and fixing the minimum wage would be key.

Narrative B

In the face of Nigeria's cost-of-living crisis, labor unions have urged the government to raise the national minimum wage. However, the minimum wage doesn't protect workers from poverty — it effectively traps them in a vicious circle that can only be broken if people acquire the skills and capabilities needed in the global economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Nigeria will have a coup before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Epoch Times CFO Charged in Alleged Money Laundering Scheme

The Facts

  • The chief financial officer (CFO) of the conservative outlet Epoch Times, Weidong "Bill" Guan, has been arrested over an alleged years-long money laundering scheme to enrich himself and the company.

  • On Monday, the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) announced the indictment, claiming that Guan conspired with others to launder at least around $67M in crime proceeds — including fraudulently obtained unemployment benefits.


The Spin

Right narrative

Like other alternative news outlets that have strayed from left-leaning mainstream media, the Epoch Times has come under attack. The Biden admin. is committed to targeting political opponents and dissident journalists on the right. It's not hard to connect the dots and see that Biden's weaponized DOJ is politically targeting pro-Trump outlets.

Democratic narrative

As expected, the right is claiming that the charges against Bill Guan are a political attack by the Biden administration. They have immediately jumped to defend the Epoch Times despite the facts that implicate the outlet in a criminal $67M money laundering scheme. This clearly problematic news company must be probed in accordance with the law.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by November 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

House Votes To Sanction ICC Over Netanyahu's Arrest Warrant

The Facts

  • The US House voted 247-155 Tuesday to pass a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) for seeking an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

  • The vote is reportedly the House's first move against the ICC's top prosecutor, Karim Khan, who had requested arrest warrants for Israel and Hamas leaders last month.


The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Biden's opposition to the bill punishing the ICC for its prosecutor's ridiculous move to seek Netanyahu's arrest is surprising, given the bipartisan support the US is supposed to have extended to Israel. Israel isn't an aggressor, and Netanyahu isn't a criminal. Failure of the bill due to a lack of support from the top would send a muddled message to Israelis and the world.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The importance of the ICC's role in addressing international crimes needs to be emphasized at this moment in history, keeping in mind the context of the US' own support and assistance to the organization. Biden must reject legislative efforts to undermine the ICC and reaffirm America's support for independent international justice mechanisms.

Nerd narrative

There's a 97% chance the International Criminal Court will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Iran: New FM Visits Lebanon, Syria on First Trip Abroad

The Facts

  • On his first international trip, Iran’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani met with Syrian Pres. Bashar al-Assad and Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad on Tuesday following meetings in Lebanon the day before.

  • Bagheri Kani and his counterpart discussed the need for an immediate Gaza cease-fire and the unconditional provision of humanitarian aid to the strip. Like his predecessor, he also met with Palestinian groups at the Iranian embassy in Damascus.


The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

After the tragic death of his predecessor, Bagheri Kani's first trip abroad is an impressive display of political continuity in the face of Israel's aggression in Gaza. More firmly than in the past, and despite sanctions and threats, Iran will reinforce the synergy between the Axis of Resistance in its just struggle against the Israeli regime and its unprecedented crimes. The Israeli occupation is the cause of chaos and regional instability, and Iran and its allies are not going to stand idly by.

Anti-Iran narrative

Bagheri Kani may pretend to champion the Palestinian cause, but this has nothing to do with reality. Iran's proxy war against Israel is not serving the Palestinians, and will not lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Even the Palestinian Authority is realizing that Tehran is sacrificing the blood of Palestinians only to foster its geopolitical goals. Tehran's alleged concern for peace and stability is a sham to cover for its expansionist ambitions.

Nerd narrative

There is a 6% chance that Ali Khamenei will cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Ukrainian Peace Summit Opens the Door to Moscow

The Facts

  • A draft text from Ukraine's forthcoming Global Peace Summit has for the first time opened the door to Russian involvement in talks, according to a document from the summit obtained by Bloomberg.

  • The initiative, first announced by Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April, is to be held in Switzerland on June 15, and hopes to attract 80 to 100 nations. However, Russia's participation in the event has so far been barred.


The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

While the summit aims to lay the groundwork for the involvement of representatives of Russia down the line, such steps can only be taken on the basis of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. However, Moscow has failed to accept that framework.

Pro-Russia narrative

It's clear to most countries that peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine war without Russian involvement seem like an exercise in the trivial. Such talks of peace can only progress when Russian and Ukrainian diplomats sit at the same negotiating table.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Australia Suspends Stabbing Video Case Against X

The Facts

  • Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman-Grant has dropped her order against X, formerly Twitter, to take down video footage of the stabbing of Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel in Sydney. Inman-Grant previously argued the video could incite further violence.

  • X refused both the Commissioner's order and that of the Federal Court to temporarily remove the footage, arguing it was invalid. In response to Inman-Grant's policy reversal, X owner Elon Musk said his company is "heartened to see that freedom of speech has prevailed."


The Spin

Left narrative

The only person who feels this is a win is Elon Musk, whose choice was in the minority among other social media companies who chose to remove the violent video. Until the Appeals Tribunal makes its final decision, Musk and his platform will continue to put the world at risk of further violence. The eSafety Commissioner's job is to keep Australians safe, which is why her legal fight is not over.

Right narrative

It appears that Julie Inman-Grant has finally hit a wall in her pursuit to rule over the Australian internet. While she's successfully taken down content, such as material critical of transgender ideology, Australia's chief censor has finally met her match in Elon Musk. Musk has proven that authoritarian impulses can't cleanse the internet of content deemed a "threat" to political beliefs.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that X's market capitalization will be $20.4B on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Israeli Social Media Influence Campaign Allegedly Targeted US Lawmakers

The Facts

  • A report from The New York Times alleges that Israel's Ministry of Diaspora Affairs spent $2M on a social media influence campaign that encouraged US lawmakers to support Israel's war in Gaza.

  • Citing four current and former Diaspora Affairs officials, the report claims the ministry hired the marketing firm Stoic to create hundreds of accounts posing as Americans — primarily targeting Black and Democratic lawmakers.


The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Any alleged influence efforts at all wouldn't be necessary if Israel's allies grasped the unfair, toxic environment Israel is facing. Too many in the West are sympathizing with Hamas over Israel because of their moral failings and pro-Hamas social media influence. No connection to this alleged campaign is confirmed, but from a broader perspective, Israel has every right to conduct a robust public information campaign to ensure its survival.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Now we know for certain that Israel is brazenly attempting to influence US politicians for the sake of its own interests. Israel and pro-Israel lobbying groups are increasing their efforts in desperation because of the unpopularity of the country's war in Gaza. This is an egregious violation of US national security — a foreign influence that wouldn't be tolerated if it were from any other country.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US will give Israel at least $3.1B in aid in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Senate Rejects 'Right to Contraception' Bill

The Facts

  • In a 51 to 39 vote, US Senate Republicans blocked a bill to enshrine nationwide access to contraception on Wednesday. Though two Republicans voted in favor of the measure, it fell short of the 60 votes needed to move forward.

  • The bill, dubbed the Right to Contraception Act, comes as part of a broader Democratic push to put Republicans on record about reproductive rights in the run-up to the November elections.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

The overturning of Roe v. Wade has unleashed chaos — no one understands anymore which contraception methods are allowed and whether states can revoke access to birth control. In the face of such an extreme conservative push, it's pressing to enshrine existing protections such as Griswold v. Connecticut and Eisenstadt v. Baird into federal law.

Republican narrative

Contraception remains legal in every state and health insurers are legally required to offer it at no cost, so it's clear that Democrats are fearmongering on reproductive rights in a stunt to gain political advantage as the elections approach. Even more outrageously, this bill would have allowed the government to force religious institutions and schools to offer contraceptives to kids.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Earth Marks 12th Straight Month of Record Heat

The Facts

  • Scientists from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) on Wednesday announced that May 2024 was the twelfth straight month of record-warm global temperatures — the second-longest similar recorded streak, according to the service's data.

  • Previously, scientists in January announced that 2023 was the hottest calendar year on record — but record heat wasn't notched in all 12 months of that year.


The Spin

Narrative A

World leaders must listen to the planet and do whatever it takes to stop this warming trend. Even though there are other issues — including geopolitical strife and multiple crucial elections — distracting the world, the fact that the Earth is regularly surpassing the pre-industrial average temperature has to stay at the forefront. This is vital to preventing an irreversible calamity.

Narrative B

Taking action — if any is necessary — will be easier once scientists are able to better discern what's causing these records to be broken. It's possible that it's just a blip caused by numerous factors, such as El Niño, or perhaps experts have misjudged what's been causing global warming for years. Regardless, more research is necessary before major and alarmist steps are taken.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the average global temperature in 2100 will be 2.88˚C higher than the average global temperature in 1880, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Boeing Starliner Docks With Space Station

The Facts

  • Boeing's Starliner capsule arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) on Thursday after last-minute thruster trouble nearly derailed its first crewed mission. The capsule had a small helium leak before takeoff, and two more emerged hours into the flight.

  • The Starliner capsule took off at 10:52 am ET on Wednesday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida after years of delays. It docked at the ISS at 3:46 ET on Thursday when a fourth leak was discovered.


The Spin

Narrative A

Boeing has arrived as a major player in the space industry with the successful launch of its Starliner, and the aerospace titan should be proud of this milestone. While there were bumps along the way, the Starliner has demonstrated that it can safely send NASA astronauts to the ISS and start launching longer missions by next year. Boeing’s efforts are paying off, and the company is ready to compete with the likes of SpaceX as a leader in space travel.

Narrative B

Regardless of Wednesday’s launch, Boeing has failed in its development of the Starliner. It has taken over a decade to achieve any meaningful progress, and failed attempts have only embarrassed the company. If that wasn’t bad enough, Boeing has had several high-profile issues with its airplanes that have diminished public trust. While it may be committed to its space missions, Boeing should instead focus on the safety of its airplanes.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that a crewed spacecraft will enter interstellar space for the first time by 2257, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Sign up to our daily newsletter