Republican narrative

These numbers only tell part of the story about crime in America, as they are based on voluntary reporting from police departments. The main issue in this country remains dismal arrest and prosecution records from progressive district attorney's offices, which leads to emboldened criminals and gamified statistics.

Democratic narrative

The perception of the GOP being "tough on crime" doesn't match the reality, as this steep drop reverses the spikes that occurred under the Trump administration. Trump's attacks on law enforcement agencies and his personal attempts to flout the law are a testament to his lack of care regarding law and order.

Cynical narrative

There's a technical issue that must be accounted for when reporting US crime statistics. The FBI's transition to a new crime reporting system for local jurisdictions has led to major data gaps — including in New York City and Los Angeles. Accordingly, it's actually unclear if crime nationwide has gone up, gone down, or stayed relatively the same. This data gap must be rectified in order to give the public the information it deserves — and to defend against bad faith political arguments on both sides.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US murder rate in 2030 will be 5.4 per 100K inhabitants, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas' ruthlessness was already evident on Oct. 7. Its continued use of Palestinian civilians as human shields is additional evidence of a vile strategy. Israel, in contrast, rigorously avoids targeting civilians, even in an urban setup. Besides, it also acknowledges and takes responsibility for its mistakes, whereas striking and using civilians is Hamas' modus operandi.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel's defenders keep saying it doesn't target civilians, yet the evidence suggests otherwise. Israel is intentionally targeting civilians and areas that have been deemed to be "safe zones," not to mention the blockade that has pushed Gaza toward famine. Besides the fact that the validity of these leaks is always in question, this hypocrisy needs to be called out even when criticizing Hamas' cynical calculations.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 47.8K Palestinian civilian deaths and 1.47K Israeli civilian deaths will reported in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's only natural that Turkey has a strategic interest in joining the BRICS+ as they represent a shift in global power dynamics. The West may view this with suspicion, but Turkey does not see the BRICS+ as an alternative to NATO or the EU, but the stalled EU accession process is forcing Turkey to explore alternatives. Turkey is keen to create a network of relations that complements its Western ties, and compared to the G7, the BRICS+ represents the future of multilateralism.

Pro-establishment narrative

It comes as no surprise that Putin is keen to welcome Turkey into the BRICS+, as he is seeking to lend the alliance additional geopolitical weight in tandem with China. But the headlines distort reality. Turkey has a Customs Union with the EU and so far Ankara has neither formally applied for BRICS membership nor officially declared that it wants to join the bloc. Turkey may be looking for new cooperation opportunities, but Ankara — a powerful NATO member — is well-advised not to alienate the West.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Turkey will be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Now a for-profit entity aligned with Microsoft, OpenAI no longer publishes or open-sources its research, contradicting its founding principles. The Sam Altman-led firm is hypocritical in commercializing its powerful AI models, such as GPT-4. Musk's questions are relevant even if they don't have a legal bite.

Narrative B

The least that can be said about Musk's lawsuit against Altman and OpenAI is that he aimed to advance his own commercial interests and AI ventures. His assertions are convoluted and baseless, and probably fueled by envy since he left OpenAI before its success exploded in the public consciousness.

Nerd narrative

There's a 19% chance OpenAI Inc. will change its mission statement before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

China is clearly not playing by the rules regarding its domestic subsidies, which allow Chinese car companies to sell cars at twice the rate in Europe as they do at home. While Europe would love to engage in free and fair market competition, EU leaders cannot stand by and watch as their innovators and workers are pushed out of business thanks to China's economic schemes.

Pro-China narrative

With global demand for new technologies and the resources required to build them, China is fostering a domestic culture of innovation, which has resulted in world-renowned EVs that Europeans love to buy. Instead of taxing Chinese cars, the EU should implement its own policies to boost European manufacturers, which would create even more competition.

Narrative C

The EU wouldn't have this problem if it didn't dive into the green energy fad so blindly. The initial EV boom in northern Europe was sparked by bountiful government subsidies, but the subsequent spending spree ended far sooner than expected. This is why companies like Mercedes and Renault won't be achieving their EV transition goals until well into the next decade.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 127K new EV buses registered worldwide in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Russian strikes on Ukraine have wreaked havoc on civilians and have decimated the country's energy infrastructure. Ukraine needs urgent help to protect against these missile attacks, but also assistance in repairing power-generation capacities to return the flow of electricity to the country.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks as well as thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached and Ukraine returns to the negotiating table.

Nerd narrative

There is a 35% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel rigorously follows the laws of war and goes out of its way to avoid civilian casualties. All this report demonstrates is that the UN is deeply biased against Israel and seeks to create a nauseating equivalence between Israeli self-defense and Hamas' horrific terrorism.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel can no longer play the victim card as the evidence mounts that it's Israeli forces who are committing the most serious crimes. The propaganda offensive accusing Hamas of systematic rape has been thoroughly debunked, and, as it turns out, Israeli forces are committing sexualized torture against Palestinians in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be more than 48K Palestinian civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Although NASA has scrubbed much of this data from the public record, women have proven equal to men on spaceflight physical exams for decades. This, combined with this vital data about the physical ability of female astronauts to endure and recover from the impacts of spaceflight, suggests that NASA and other spacefaring agencies would be wise to put women at the forefront of future human cosmic exploration.

Narrative B

Whether you're a man or a woman, becoming an astronaut is a grueling and arduous process. In virtually every case, this includes obtaining advanced college degrees, passing military physical fitness exams, becoming a military pilot, and racking up 1K flight hours. This is a very important study about physiological factors, but it's important to remember — for both female and male astronauts — that physical resilience is one of many characteristics of crewing the space voyages of the future.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the first humans will land successfully on Mars in by April 2043, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

If the death of innocent, caged animals isn't enough to wake up the authorities, what is? With tens of thousands of shops crowding narrow lanes, the Chatuchak market is sitting on a ticking bomb waiting to explode. Moreover, its pet section — where endangered species illegally smuggled into the country suffer in dire conditions — is a health and safety hazard. The Thai government must crack down on the sale of wildlife and stop the vendors from committing this senseless cruelty to animals.

Narrative B

Due to Bangkok officials' promptness, emergency responders gained control of the fire within an hour without any human casualties. One of South East Asia's biggest markets is subjected to regular inspections, which is why allegations of illegal trade and animals being kept in poor conditions are unfounded. For now, the focus must be to investigate the cause of the fire to prevent such tragedies, calculate the financial damage, compensate the affected shop owners, and rebuild the local community.

Nerd narrative

There's a 67% chance that reducing wild animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

There is no doubt that Pres. Trump is the best candidate for the crypto community, and his effort to embrace Bitcoin shows that he will fight against the anti-crypto establishment in DC. Roughly 25% of Americans own Bitcoin, yet they have been largely ignored, if not demonized, by the political class. Trump has evolved on the issue and taken the time to learn more about this vital technology. He knows that crypto is a protector of our freedom, and he will fight against Democrats' plans to destroy financial freedom.

Anti-Trump narrative

Donald Trump continues to show that he has no convictions on any issue and will say whatever he believes will help him politically. Once a staunch critic of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, Trump has completely flip-flopped on the issue — likely because some of his allies told him to. Trump doesn't seem to understand anything about Bitcoin mining or cryptocurrency, but that won't stop him from making statements for the sake of donations and scoring political points.

Nerd narrative

There is a 34% chance that 1 Bitcoin will be worth $100K or more before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.