Hunter Biden Found Guilty on All Gun Charges
A Delaware federal court jury has found US Pres. Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, guilty of two counts of making false statements when buying a firearm and one count of illegally possessing a firearm in 2018. All three charges carry a total of up to 25 years in prison.
The trial judge said a sentencing date has not been set yet, but noted that it typically occurs around 120 days after the verdict, which would be early October. He also faces a fine of up to $750K, but federal guidelines suggest a much shorter jail time and financial penalty.
Democratic narrative
Hunter Biden fell down the dark hole of drug addiction, the consequences of which led to criminal actions that tainted both his life and the reputation of his very famous family. His dad also walked the fine line between supporting his son and upholding the rule of law, which is why a jury found him guilty. With Hunter now judged by both a jury and the court of public opinion, it's time for Americans to put partisanship aside and focus on the tragic human aspect of this story.
Republican narrative
While it's nice to see the corrupt son of a corrupt president face justice, Americans should not view this as a win. Pres. Joe Biden's Justice Department has used these gun charges to keep public attention away from Hunter and his father's foreign bribery allegations. The White House will now use this to justify its prosecutions of Trump, but this is in no way an equal application of the law.
Narrative C
While it may be difficult to do, anyone who believes in the constitutional right to bear arms, whether they like the president or not, should be upset about this verdict. When America was founded, both alcohol and opium were known substances, yet no laws prohibited users of those substances from possessing guns. If the justice system can violate the gun rights of the president's son, what do you think they'd be willing to do to an average citizen?
Nerd narrative
There is a 47% chance that Joe Biden will be re-elected president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Gaza: UN Security Council Adopts US Cease-fire Proposal
The UN Security Council on Monday overwhelmingly adopted a resolution endorsing a US-backed cease-fire proposal that seeks to end the Israel-Hamas war, which has gone on for eight months.
Adopted with 14 of the 15 Security Council members voting in favor and Russia — which has veto power — abstaining, the resolution calls on Israel and Hamas to implement the proposal's terms "without delay and without condition."
Pro-establishment narrative
The resolution's adoption is a significant success for US diplomacy. However, doubts remain, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has already indicated that he will continue military operations until Hamas is defeated. Moreover, parts of the Israeli government reject elements of the plan, which is in line with what Hamas demanded in a previous round of failed negotiations and also provides for a two-state solution.
Establishment-critical narrative
While it now plays peacemaker, the US used its veto power to block several earlier resolutions calling for an immediate Israeli-Hamas cease-fire. Washington abstained from a March vote, enabling the adoption of a cease-fire resolution. Meanwhile, another US veto blocked a Palestinian application for full UN membership. It can hardly be assumed that Washington will now pressure Israel to agree to the resolution.
Nerd narrative
There's a 97% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: 2023 Sees Most Armed Conflicts Since End of World War II
A report released Monday by the Norwegian Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) stated there were 59 military conflicts around the world last year, the highest since the end of World War II, the majority of which are located in Africa.
According to PRIO, Africa accounted for 28 of the 59 wars, followed by Asia (17), the Middle East (10), Europe (3), and the Americas (1). Despite this, the number of nations plagued by conflict has decreased from 39 in 2022 to 34.
Narrative A
Coinciding with this report, the Global Peace Index 2024 was released, showing that the world economic impact of war and conflict was $19.1T last year, while only $49.6B was spent on peacebuilding and peacekeeping, representing less than 0.6% of total military spending. The world isn't doing enough to bring about peace.
Narrative B
Contrary to popular belief, the world has become increasingly violent. With the last three years having seen a record number of conflicts and deaths than at any time in the previous 30 years, it is becoming increasingly difficult for governments, NGOs, and international organizations to provide support to people in need.
Nerd narrative
There is a 25% chance there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Lifts Weapons Ban on Ukraine's Azov Brigade
The US State Department has lifted a ban on American weapons being sent to Ukraine's Azov Brigade, according to a statement first obtained by the Washington Post on Monday.
The unit, founded in 2014 by ultranationalist soccer hooligans in concert with other far-right groups, has worked to shake off its neo-Nazi past, according to some reports. However, others suggest those roots are still very much present.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the Azov Brigade has a checkered past, much of that has changed since it became absorbed into Ukraine's National Guard and recruited 5K new soldiers since Russia's invasion. This lifting of the ban will mean that some of Ukraine's best defenders have the weapons they need and should turn into tangible results on the battlefield.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though Western media openly reported about Azov's far-right ideology prior to the Russian invasion, much of that has since been whitewashed — although these neo-Nazi elements remain. This is because mainstream media is now more concerned with justifying the West's proxy war with Russia than doing honest journalism.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that Russian territory will be reduced by at least 1% before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Elections: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto
The UK's Conservatives launched their manifesto at Silverstone on Tuesday. Speaking at the event, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that while the UK had experienced "a difficult time," his party contained "big ideas to make [the] country a better place to live."
Within the manifesto, the party pledges a further two percentage point reduction to National Insurance by April 2027, having already fallen from 12% to 8% from the beginning of the year. The Conservatives also promise to abolish the main rate of National Insurance for the self-employed by the end of the next parliamentary term.
Pro-establishment narrative
Sunak's manifesto launch will have renewed confidence that there is still hope for the Conservatives yet. The party's document is full of reasonable and compelling pledges that may leave Labour slightly more nervous than many have expected. While some of the UK's deeper economic problems remain unsolved and ignored, it would be amiss to write off the Tories following Tuesday's surprising success.
Establishment-critical narrative
In a desperate attempt to avoid electoral wipeout, Sunak has once again attempted to halt the Conservative Party's inevitable political decline by offering unfeasible and unfunded tax cuts. After over a decade of lies, it is unlikely anything that the Tories have announced will change the minds of a fed up British public.
Nerd narrative
There is a 99% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hong Kong: Resigning UK Judge Says City's Rule of Law 'Compromised'
Jonathan Sumption, one of two British judges who resigned from Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeal last week, has warned that the city "is slowly becoming a totalitarian state."
In an opinion piece published in the Financial Times on Monday, the non-permanent overseas judge alleged that the rule of law in Hong Kong has been "profoundly compromised in any area about which the government feels strongly."
Pro-China narrative
Sumption's claims that Hong Kong is becoming a totalitarian city or that the rule of law is decimated are baseless, politically motivated, and a betrayal of Hong Kong's judges. The city's Basic Law mandates that prosecution and judiciary work independently without any interference. The top court is determined to uphold the rule of law — especially the national security law, which is crucial to maintaining order in Hong Kong.
Anti-China narrative
These resignations challenge the PRC's narrative that the presence of foreign justices helps sustain Hong Kong's rule of law. After it's clear that the city's national security law is being used to crack down on political dissent, the remaining judges must desist from operating in an oppressive environment — and giving China a false sense of legitimacy. They must resign to maintain the integrity of the legal profession and the independence of the courts.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by Oct. 4, 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Won't Dismiss Trump Docs Case, But Slightly Narrows Indictment
A federal judge on Monday narrowed special counsel Jack Smith's 53-page indictment against former Pres. Donald Trump — removing an incident of Trump showing a classified military map to a political adviser months after leaving office.
Judge Aileen Cannon agreed to remove a paragraph about the incident but also refused the defense's request to dismiss some of the charges against Trump, who is accused of illegally retaining classified documents after his presidency.
Anti-Trump narrative
It's about time that Cannon ruled on something rather than continuing to push this trial further into the future. She was probably right to strike the incident from the indictment, especially since she seems willing to allow it to be submitted as evidence. But it's also time for her to stop her slow pace of this case so the American public can hear it sooner rather than later.
Pro-Trump narrative
Cannon is handling this fraudulent case at the right pace, allowing the public to see how desperately the Biden-led government wants to persecute Trump. Whether it's fabricated evidence or other wrongdoings by Smith's team, this case is nothing but an attempt by the Biden administration to hurt Trump's chances of winning the election — it should eventually be dismissed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the federal criminal trial of Trump related to the classified documents case will begin by Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chiquita Fruit Company Held Liable for Funding Colombian Paramilitary Group
A Florida jury has ordered fruit company Chiquita Brands International to pay $38M to the families of eight Colombian men killed by the Colombian United Self-Defense Forces (AUC), which Chiquita reportedly made payments to from 1997-2004.
Chiquita was ordered to pay a $25M fine in 2007 for paying the AUC, which it claimed was protection money paid for the sake of their employees. The jury in this case ruled that Chiquita did not prove the money was paid under threat of harm.
Left narrative
This ruling finally validates what victims have known for too long — a US multinational propped up a right-wing militia for the sake of profit. Chiquita and its predecessor, United Fruit, left an indelible mark on Latin America and had a major role in many brutal atrocities committed in the name of US imperialism. This history is now being unveiled for the world to see, and will hopefully lead to more verdicts such as this.
Right narrative
Chiquita, faced with extortion by the AUC, had to pay protection money to protect their farmers and workers from the group and from left-wing guerilla attacks. Colombia was wracked by decades of conflict, and Chiquita had to deal with unsavory groups to protect their business and the employees who depended on it. There is also doubt as to which groups were behind the eight killings, making an appeal necessary.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that Colombia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
House Committee Releases Pelosi Conversation on Jan. 6
US House Republicans have released never-before-seen footage of high-ranking congressional leaders during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots. The footage, provided by HBO, was taken by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calf.) daughter, documentarian Alexandra Pelosi.
One clip appears to show Pelosi talking to her chief of staff while evacuating the Capitol. She can be heard saying she "did not have any accountability for what was going on" but "should have." She further questioned why the "National Guard" wasn't "there to begin with."
Pro-Trump narrative
Pelosi's apparent regret seems disingenuous given that the then-head of the Capitol police confirmed she had rejected his request for troops days before. Further evidence continues to support Trump's claim that he requested 10K troops ahead of the election certification—but he, too, was denied by House leadership. After years of establishment Democrats and Republicans blaming Trump, it seems they were the ones failing to protect the Capitol.
Anti-Trump narrative
Donald Trump's claim about requesting 10K troops has long been debunked. Not only did he not issue an official order, but by the time he did deploy troops to combat his violent supporters, they had been ransacking the Capitol for five hours. Pelosi and Schumer were understandably confused because they were not in charge of the Army; the president was. Donald Trump summoned the mob and then took his sweet time to force them out of the Capitol.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Four US College Instructors Stabbed in China
Four American college instructors Monday were injured in a stabbing at Beishan Park in China, according to their school and officials from both countries. All victims survived and are reportedly in stable condition.
The victims, instructors from Cornell College, a small liberal arts school in Iowa, were teaching in a partnership program with Beihua University in Jilin City, China.
Anti-China narrative
This gruesome attack is deeply troubling and it forces US officials to reflect on the safety of Americans in China. The victims were fortunate to survive, as video footage of the scene suggests the outcome could have been deadly. The US must continue to monitor the outlook for Americans abroad in the PRC.
Pro-China narrative
US officials are understandably troubled by this, but all evidence suggests that the stabbing was an isolated incident. This event shouldn't impact bilateral relations between the US and China, and China will continue to be one of the safest countries in the world.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-China war before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.