Left narrative

It's concerning that far-right Eurosceptic parties have polled well in the EU elections because now — and for the next five years — they are likely to pressure centrist parties on key issues such as immigration, climate change, and defense. Hopefully, internal disputes between them will prevail and prevent a bigger impact on these policies.

Right narrative

The right has grown popular in these EU elections precisely because Europeans are tired of mass immigration and a failed globalist agenda — including green ideology. It's no coincidence that Macron was humiliated in France while Germany's center-right Christian Democrats came top after toughening the line on immigration — with the AfD second.

Nerd narrative

There's a 72% chance that an alliance of EPP, S&D, and RE will form the 2024 EU Commission, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Gantz is a strong contender to take Netanyahu's position, though his exit from the unity government will mean Netanyahu has less room to maneuver in regard to his far-right allies. However, Gantz's National Unity party still has a slight lead on Netanyahu, even if the premier is gaining in the polls. Gantz's main flaw is that he is a patriot, but his dealings with Netanyahu since his entrance into politics have toughened him up. Gantz must be ready to get his hands dirty if he wants to unseat Netanyahu.

Narrative B

All Gantz has done is strengthen his enemies and weaken his own political position. Leaving the war cabinet was a pointless gesture, and now Gantz has no direct influence on Israeli policy. Gantz's stunt may have cost Israel a hostage deal, as extremists like Itamar Ben-Gvir will have more influence. Gantz is a lame duck who will amount to little in the coming months of turbulent domestic politics.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The debate in Israel, the US, and the West more broadly is completely divorced from the material reality of the Palestinian people, who care little about which brand of Israeli leader is bombing them and which corrupt technocrat is chosen to run the Palestinian Authority. Palestinians want to be free in their homeland, yet their dreams are purposefully ignored by US and Israeli leaders who would rather force Palestinians into submission.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be prime minister of Israel by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Iran narrative

Those who predicted that Iran would slide into political chaos following Raisi's tragic death were proven wrong. The line-up of the six candidates to run for election is a testament to the political continuity and diversity of the Iranian political landscape. The list includes representatives from almost all political factions, and following a period of fierce competition, Iranians will choose their new president. Iran's vibrant political institutions remain strong.

Anti-Iran narrative

The unelected Guardian Council, controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has approved the candidates whose profiles are similar to those who ran for the 2021 election. Moreover, all admitted candidates are conservatives or hardliners loyal to Khamenei, with only one "reformist" running to boost turnout and lend some legitimacy to the process. However, even if he wins, Khamenei and his clique will pull the strings, making the upcoming vote another sad political charade.

Nerd narrative

There's a 6% chance that Ali Khamenei will cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

What's primarily needed on the prostate cancer front is an extensive and open discussion about screening benefits and risks. The US Preventive Services Task Force advises against routine screening after age 69, despite it being the second-leading cause of cancer deaths. Treatment decisions are not easy — medical advances like these are encouraging, and better research will help to inform tricky conversations regarding this serious medical condition.

Narrative B

Research shows that often "watchful waiting" or prostate-specific antigen is people's preferred choice over surgery given the relatively fewer chances of harm. While it might slightly increase the risk of death, it also involves fewer complications. Studies suggest surgery should be reserved for younger patients or those with aggressive cancers. Most prostate cancers grow slowly and do not cause death, supporting less aggressive treatment approaches — something that must be factored in when assessing new medical advances.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by April 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the last eight months have proved both tragic and challenging, Israel and Saudi Arabia have a unique opportunity to advance regional peace and stability. A US defense pact with Saudi Arabia predicated on normalization with Israel would be a massive strategic victory in countering Iranian influence in the region and preventing Russia or China from gaining influence.

Establishment-critical narrative

A defense pact between the US and Saudi Arabia would be a terrible deal for the US and only put US interests at risk. As regional tensions are always simmering, a defense pact would mean that US forces may find themselves fighting in a war in which the US has no business being involved. US blood and treasure should not be wasted to defend a brutal monarchy.

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel was the final nail in the coffin for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the enclave has essentially existed as a terrorist-run proto-state run by Hamas. Given the Palestinian Authority's inefficacy, Israel has no partners for peace, and the last 20 years in Gaza prove this. Though normalization with Saudi Arabia would certainly improve Israel's position in the region, it cannot tolerate a violent, terrorist-run Palestinian state.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Saudi normalization with Israel would be a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and would effectively remove any legitimacy the Saudi state has in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Arab states negotiating individual peace deals with Israel have consistently weakened the Palestinian cause and Arab unity — with Israel never actually changing its behavior toward those it occupies. Regional peace can only be achieved after the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Nerd narrative

There's an 11% chance that Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations with Israel before Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite the humanitarian crisis being one of the worst in the world, the war in Sudan remains a hidden conflict. As the RSF encircles al-Fashir, the risk of genocide against the non-Arab population in Darfur grows bigger by the day. What's worse, the world's silence has emboldened them, with the pleas of NGOs falling on deaf ears. Sudan needs an international peacekeeping force on the ground now.

Establishment-critical narrative

Sudan has suffered from an excess of foreign intervention, not a dearth of it. The political condition in the country was worsened by international pressure against Islamist political groups and even tepid support for the RSF in their fight against the government. Several years ago, the West tried to push a political transition onto the country without accounting for its cultural differences — resulting in the predictable conflict we now see between pro- and anti-Western factions.

Nerd narrative

There is a 45% chance that the RSF will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

This was a clear rebuke of both De Croo as a person and his party. Not only did Belgian voters unseat the Open VLD, they also stripped 11 seats from green parties. De Croo represents the European elites, as shown by his anti-Trump remarks, which is why the people voted for parties who will focus on national concerns.

Left narrative

Despite the gains of far-right parties, Belgian voters kept them from forming a government. Belgium is a historically diverse country — from its semi-autonomous Flemish- and Dutch-speaking regions to its North African immigrants — which is why the people voted to keep the far-right from ending immigration and tearing the country apart.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Belgium will no longer be a unified state by Feb. 15, 2113, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

It would be cruel and unfair to send an elderly man who's convicted of a white-collar crime to prison, but it won't be surprising if the district attorney seeks and receives jail time. After all, Bragg pressed this politically motivated case, and he will be under political pressure to seek the most severe punishment as part of this multi-pronged witch hunt the Democrats are conducting against Trump.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump has been unrepentant and has threatened the judge, yet the New York court is allowing him to conduct this interview remotely alongside his lawyer. Trump is being treated more fairly than most convicted felons, and whatever sentence he gets will be appropriate for his crimes — without political considerations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Apple has finally decided to jump into the race to add generative AI into products, roughly two years after OpenAI triggered it. Given that Apple has many strengths and weaknesses that could affect its AI development, partnering with the very company that pioneered this new and ever-growing technology is key to its success.

Narrative B

That OpenAI can help Apple accelerate its use of large language models and regain ground in this race is a fact — even through the cautious nature of Apple and the boldness of OpenAI. However, the issue is inherent risks related to offering artificial intelligence nowadays, especially as Apple has traditionally sought to offer polished products after painstaking research and development.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that concern about artificial intelligence will go mainstream in the United States by October 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

This is a common sense, compassionate approach to immigration. While some progressives were disappointed with Biden's recent executive order, it's clear the president is nothing like former Pres. Donald Trump, who literally wants to deport every undocumented immigrant. Granting protections to the spouses of US citizens will help more than 1M people in a way that most Americans can support.

Republican narrative

Biden has left the border open for his entire term, and now that he's received backlash over this executive order, he's feigning concern about illegal immigration. Polls show most Americans support deporting undocumented immigrants, but instead, the president is offering amnesty to millions — showing he's more beholden to the far left than the country as a whole.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Biden's net approval rating will be less than -12.4% on Nov. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The development of a combined COVID and flu vaccine is a major win for the scientific and medical communities that could allow millions more people to get vaccinated. A rise in misinformation and vaccine fatigue has caused COVID vaccination rates to decline, but combining the COVID jab with the seasonal flu shot could get more people to protect themselves. Most people are accustomed to getting regular flu shots, so combining that with COVID shots will allow people to get the seasonal protection they need.

Establishment-critical narrative

The establishment can't seem to quit pushing mRNA vaccines despite continued evidence and reports showing that they are far from as effective as originally touted — at best. Big Pharma has seen a dramatic dip in sales since global governments stopped forcing mRNA jabs onto the populace, but it's determined to grow its profits at all costs. The COVID debacle shows that mRNA is far from a simple panacea, and creating new jabs with it could backfire and actually increase vaccine hesitancy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that a universal flu vaccine will be available by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.