Democratic narrative

This is a political game Republicans are playing in order to distract from the legal troubles of former Pres. Donald Trump, the GOP's presumptive nominee for president. Republicans received a transcript of Hur's interview and their pursuit of the recordings is just part of the off-the-wall conspiracy theories they have to sell to their followers to distract from their deficiencies.

Republican narrative

This isn't about politics, it's about an attorney general who believes he's above the law and an administration that's doing all it can to obfuscate this situation. A recording is always superior evidence to a transcript, and Congress has a right to hear what Hur said as part of their investigation into the president's possible crimes or incompetence. Besides, the president lost executive privilege when he released the transcript.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that Garland will be impeached before the 2024 federal election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

By holding the rates high, the Fed risks increasing the government's debt costs significantly. This could crowd out important public investments in areas like infrastructure and education. If rates remain high for too long, the cost of borrowing will also remain high, creating severe long-term fiscal challenges. The Fed must reassess its policy.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Fed is keeping interest rates steady despite easing inflation because this is working as intended, and more progress is needed on the inflation front before initiating an interest rate-lowering trend. The Fed has warned that cutting rates too soon could undermine the efforts to control price rises and weaken the economy. Powell is right to stay the course.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that the Fed rate on Dec. 31, 2024, will be below 4%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While Tesla's stock price has certainly dropped since the deal was first proposed, the agreed-upon terms were previously met and the board, as it was in 2018, seems set on fulfilling its promise. This vote isn't just about money —Musk requires full control over the company if his innovative ideas are to remain the backbone of Tesla.

Narrative B

Tesla has gone from a world-leading EV maker in hot pursuit of giving everybody affordable and effective green energy cars, to one advertising unnecessary cyber trucks and spending time debating pay packages. Tesla's success should be based on manufacturing and sales, not casino-style money transfers to satisfy shareholders.

Nerd narrative

There is a 32% chance that Tesla will officially unveil a new passenger vehicle, possibly called the Model 2, priced under $25K by 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The purpose of this agreement is to give Ukraine the resources to continue fending off Russia's aggression and rebuild after the war is won. While some world leaders, even in the West, have been half-hearted in their support for Ukraine, the G7 on Thursday showed that it's still ready to defeat Putin militarily and make him pay to rebuild what he's destroyed.

Pro-Russia narrative

This is banditry and theft — pure and simple. Using revenue from Russia's frozen assets to fund Ukraine in the conflict is yet another example of the West degrading its own standards and violating its commitments to international law. The saddest part is that Europe knows this will backfire economically, as Russia will be forced to respond with its own measures.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

AMR is one of the most pressing medical issues of our time, and thanks to the Longitude Prize, years of research have culminated in several diagnostic breakthroughs. While the official competition is over, and PA-100 AST has won, scientists are now working to distribute this technology across the globe and even develop it further. This technology has the chance to save millions of lives so long as funding and research continue.

Narrative B

While we should celebrate this breakthrough and thank the scientists behind it, it's also important to remember Big Pharma's role in the collapse of the antibiotic industry. Once drug patents expire and corporations can no longer hike prices, these companies stop manufacturing life-saving drugs, leaving patients out to dry. Victory over AMR could come quicker if Big Pharma chose to prioritize people over profits.

Nerd narrative

There is a 49% chance that the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Labour's manifesto offers the foundations for the change the UK so desperately needs. Those who call for more ambitious policies do not understand the extent of the mismanagement the Tories have presided over for the last 14 years. Only once Starmer and Labour have secured stability and security for the UK may the party and the country alike begin to broaden their expectations.

Right narrative

Despite saturating their manifesto with the word "growth," Labour's policy pledges lack detail and will fail to convince the markets that they are a party of economic competence. Starmer's document is but a veil for unannounced tax hikes, and the British public would be a fool to trust anyone who argues that Labour's manifesto is anything more than a scam.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Labour will win a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

This might be a ruling to celebrate, but the elation unfortunately could be temporary. While it ruled the plaintiffs had no standing, the conservative wing of SCOTUS left the door open to a future challenge to the FDA's rules regarding mifepristone. This case should have been dismissed because it had so many holes in it — and future challenges should be given that treatment as well.

Right narrative

It's disappointing that SCOTUS hasn't held the FDA accountable. There are concerns that Mifepristone can bring numerous harms to women and doctors — many of whom have been abandoned by pro-abortion factions and the media. But this is just the first ruling, and future challenges to the drug's availability will hopefully lead to tighter restrictions and a safer environment for pregnant women.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Milei took over a country in the depths of unprecedented economic and political turmoil, and he's already turning it around in six months. Once a beacon of Western excellence, Argentina was driven to a societal low due to leftist regimes, but Argentina is enjoying the start of a promising recovery. Milei's market-based reforms are saving Argentina.

Left narrative

Argentina's self-declared anarcho-capitalist has so far aggravated recession, increased poverty to 55%, and increased annual inflation to 300%. Given that austerity has failed several times in Argentina, popular opposition to such measures is anything but surprising. If approved, these reforms will further undermine living conditions in the Latin American nation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that Argentina will fully dollarize its economy before Jan. 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

This case was thrown out not because it concerned the legitimacy of the ban but because Thomas wasn't eligible to dispute it. World Aquatics is committed to promoting inclusivity and celebrating diversity, which is why it introduced a separate category so swimmers can compete without barriers. While one can ignore Thomas' transition out of the pool, it's unfair not to acknowledge the swimmer's physical advantage — in endurance, speed, and lung size even after reduced testosterone levels — inside of it.

Left narrative

This is a sad day for sports. By denying Thomas' request to overturn a ban that further alienates transgender sportspersons, increases invasive testing that hurts all women athletes, and is contrary to the Olympic charter and the World Aquatics constitution, the court has added to the discrimination trans people face and given credence to right-wing claims — which aren't backed by any direct or consistent research — that transgender athletes have an unfair advantage over their cisgender peers.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 13% of American adults in 2070 will identify as LGBTQ+, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

French colonialism has subjugated the Kanak people of New Caledonia for far too long, creating a situation in which native people have become a minority. The proposed voting reforms would have further disenfranchised Kanaks by diluting their votes and undermining their efforts for increased self-governance. Macron and his government have botched this situation, and the Kanak people were justified in their protest of France’s ongoing colonization.

Right narrative

The situation around the Kanak people exposes the stunning hypocrisy of the left. Establishment liberals are eager to voice concern over an indigenous group having its votes diluted by non-indigenous immigrants. This same standard, however, isn't applied to White Europeans, as the left demands that non-Europeans be allowed to vote in local elections. There are strong arguments for the Kanak right to self-determination, and those same arguments apply to Europeans.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being president of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.