Narrative A

The latest ADF attack is a grim reminder that eastern DRC is facing one of the world's most serious, complex, and neglected conflicts. Joint military operations by Ugandan and Congolese forces against the ADF rebels have so far been unable to stop the attacks on civilians, while the Rwandan-backed M23 is also causing more violence. Now is the time for the international community to finally back the Congolese in their fight against the insurgents.

Narrative B

The government in Kinshasa bears the primary responsibility for the latest tragic ADF attack. Instead of imposing a cease-fire with the support of the East African Regional Force to initiate a political process and address the conflict's root causes, the DRC is relying on the military card. The escalating conflict affects not only eastern DRC but also Rwanda and other neighboring countries. Kinshasa has failed, and the local population is paying a terrible price.

Nerd narrative

There's a 61% chance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in the enclave without Hamas in power. It will also de-escalate the situation on the Lebanese border. It is unfortunate that Hamas did not respond with a resounding "yes" to this thoughtful proposal, but the US will continue to work toward closing the gaps.

Pro-Israel narrative

The fact that the Biden admin. thinks it's appropriate to try to pressure Israel into allowing Hamas to stay in power in Gaza is deeply disappointing. If Israel does not destroy Hamas, the group will immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Israel must get the hostages back and eliminate Hamas.

Pro-Palestine narrative

It should be clear after almost eight months of grinding brutality that Israel's true goal is to destroy Gaza and starve its people. Israel is simply not interested in committing to a permanent cease-fire, as Israeli officials have made clear that once the hostages are returned, they will restart the war. Indeed, the US, aware of Israel's intransigence, refuses to do what is necessary to end this ruthless campaign.

Pro-establishment narrative

This historic agreement reached by Biden and Zelenskyy shows that democracies can deliver. It further demonstrates to Putin that the West's support of Ukraine remains unwavering

Establishment-critical narrative

This latest agreement is merely a symbolic move that lacks any longevity, as there's no guarantee that it will survive the American election, or substance, as it doesn't contain any real funding. This is merely an illusion of support.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by May 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This coalition should mark the start of a fruitful new chapter in South Africa's history. By moving beyond divisive party politics, the government can focus on collaboration and problem-solving. This coalition will bring previously politically and racially divided parties together to better tackle the issues facing the country, and will also bring in more international investment and economic stability.

Narrative B

This coalition will likely fail. The participating parties have numerous incompatibilities, public skepticism and distrust in the government are high, and the differing ideologies of the parties leaves the coalition ripe for leadership conflicts, internal divisions, and policy paralysis. The formation of this alliance has been shaky, and the future is uncharted and unknown.

Republican narrative

This was a crucial meeting for Trump and GOP lawmakers to prove their unity, and they accomplished that in droves. Trump listened to their concerns about the election and several pivotal issues that will lure voters and be part of the agenda if Trump wins. Republicans are ready to go to work for the American people.

Democratic narrative

It's astonishing how, just a little more than three years since the riots at the Capitol, the GOP is willing to turn the page in order to latch onto Trump because they believe he's going to keep them in power. The entire party has capitulated to an insurrectionist with no regard for the Constitution, and the US will be in danger if Trump prevails in November.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

These convictions are arbitrary, malicious, and unjust. Beijing is trying to penalize and silence civil society activists for reporting ground-breaking stories about sexual abuse victims, misogyny, and sexism at Chinese universities and workplaces. The PRC is viewing activism as a national security crime and imposing criminal charges for deeds that challenge government authority in a vile attempt to decimate social activism.

Pro-China narrative

These activists published distorted and inflammatory articles on foreign social media platforms and organized gatherings to incite youth dissatisfaction toward the government, which could create challenges to political stability in China. Any attempt by the agents of hostile Western forces to challenge China's rule of law and smear its judicial sovereignty must not succeed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that the Communist Party of China will continuously control the Chinese government until Jan. 1, 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

As the longest-serving leader of USCYBERCOM, Nakasone will use his national security expertise to help safeguard American AI so developers can safely distribute it to consumers. AI has the potential to benefit the world, but only if it's free from the prying eyes of bad actors.

Establishment-critical narrative

Paul Nakasone should not be praised in any way. He's the one who oversaw the NSA's illegal mass surveillance of millions of Americans, including by outsourcing its spy tactics to UK intelligence agencies to circumvent US law. No one should trust OpenAI after this decision.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that OpenAI will change its mission statement before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Law enforcement agents are public servants doing what they can to keep the country safe, and this case is just the latest example of them being threatened with violence. Some people in power spread conspiracy theories and false narratives about government agencies in order to earn short-term political points, but the country suffers in the long term. These attacks must stop.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's difficult to hold federal law enforcement in high esteem when it's turning the US into a banana republic. While the Justice Department continues to prosecute Trump — Biden's opponent in the upcoming election — it's still refusing to obey a congressional subpoena to turn over evidence. Law enforcement is not above criticism, and it should stop ducking accountability for its actions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Biden will be impeached by the US House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Reform narrative

Farage and Reform have surpassed the Tories as the main party on the British right, and this poll is just the beginning of a seismic political shift. After years of being let down by the milquetoast Conservatives, patriotic Brits are flocking to Reform’s common-sense message of limiting immigration and putting the UK first. The Tories are in deep trouble, and leaders, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, have themselves to blame for betraying their constituents.

Tory narrative

While many Brits have grown tired of the Tories after over a decade of rule, the answer does not lie in a hard-right turn. Labour has been poised to win this year’s election for some time, and Reform’s recent polling rise shouldn't be considered a long-term indicator of sentiment. The political pendulum will always swing back and forth, and the Conservatives will only regain power by running as a center-right party.

Labour narrative

Farage has completely upended the Tories like a human wrecking ball. His brand of politics is on the fringe, but he's exposing a major divide on the British right at the expense of a weak Conservative Party lacking in grassroots support. It remains to be seen how Reform will perform on Election Day, but the party’s rise could facilitate a massive majority for Labour.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Reform will win at least one seat in the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The law clearly states that only automatic weapons are banned, and bump stocks in no way turn semiautomatics into automatic weapons. The ATF blatantly overstepped its authority and violated the law in response to heightened political tensions. No federal agency has the right to strip Americans' of their Second Amendment rights just to satisfy certain public opinions.

Democratic narrative

If you want to know whether bump stocks turn semiautomatic rifles into machine guns, just ask the victims of the Las Vegas shooting. While many states took action to prevent these deadly tools from ever being used again, SCOTUS has chosen to turn a blind eye to gun violence victims. Congress must now fill the moral vacuum left by the court and pass a bump stock ban.

Nerd narrative

There is a 0.1% chance that the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution will be amended or repealed before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.