Narrative A

Greece has long been accused of breaking international law and violating the rights of asylum seekers by carrying out illegal pushback operations to force back migrants who cross the Mediterranean in search of a new life in the EU. The BBC investigation included reports from local media, nongovernmental organizations, the Turkish coastguard, and eyewitnesses. Prosecutors must take the Greek coastguard to court and hold Greece accountable for their dehumanizing actions.

Narrative B

The Greek coastguard protects the EU's external borders by following national and international law. Greek authorities are doing everything possible to secure the borders while at the same time promoting legal pathways for qualified applicants. The Greek coastguard, which saves dozens of human lives each day, regrets the alleged abuses in the Mediterranean. The actual perpetrators of migrant deaths are the smuggling networks, which continue to endanger lives in the sea.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that US refugee admissions will exceed 100K in fiscal year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The report reveals that while the global number of nuclear warheads continues to fall, the number of operational nuclear warheads is on the rise, with the increase in US spending primarily due to the growing threat from countries such as Russia, China, and North Korea. While the United States would prefer a world without nuclear weapons, the US is an ultimate security guarantee for the free world and a means of maintaining peace amid an increasingly tense geopolitical environment.

Establishment-critical narrative

ICAN's figures are grossly distorted and are mainly driven by the surge in US arms spending. However, UK spending also rose significantly due to the arms lobby's increasing influence on government decisions. This contradicts Western slogans of "freedom and democracy" and represents a massive waste of taxpayers' money. People want a peaceful future and demand a policy that is geared towards their interests, not those of the arms companies.

Narrative C

The data underlines the need for the nine nuclear-armed states to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The tens of billions saved could end global hunger and address other pressing issues, such as climate change and biodiversity loss. The nuclear states' new arms race threatens the future of all humanity and must be stopped.

Nerd narrative

There's a 22% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Reform narrative

The UK has seen steady cultural and economic decline for decades, and the Conservatives have done nothing but pretend to take a stand against Labour. As Labour is set to take over the government, Britain will inevitably face crushing tax hikes while continuing to witness rising social tensions due to mass migration. Over the next four years, Reform UK will become the anti-establishment saving grace UK citizens latch on to as the old guard withers away.

Labour narrative

Nigel Farage understands that he has no chance of gaining power, so his main goal is to destroy the Conservative Party out of spite. The Tories are no longer able to keep their far-right factions at bay, which is why they will lose thousands of critical votes in July as Labour swoops in to pick up seats in Parliament. While some xenophobic voters see this as a growing movement, in reality, it's just the decline of the entire Conservative Party.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Reform UK will win at least 2 parliamentary seats in the UK's general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

This is a positive step for bilateral relations between the two Asia-Pacific partners. Albanese has struck a conciliatory note following his bellicose predecessor, and both sides are sincere in their desire to repair relations. China is Australia's biggest trading partner, and they will hopefully see the benefits of cordial relations.

Anti-China narrative

Australia should not become sycophants to Beijing, as China's abysmal human rights record has real consequences for Australian citizens. An Australian-Chinese academic has received a suspended death sentence in China and dissidents in Australia are having their voices go unheard. Canberra should not humor an authoritarian regime.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by October 2039, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Nearly 80 world leaders signed this historic document, which sets out a real pathway towards peace. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's proposals weren't taken seriously — they were simply intended to disrupt the Switzerland event.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ahead of Ukraine's summit, Putin laid out Russia's terms for bringing the war to a close. The terms are stricter now than the peace deal Ukraine could have had in 2022, but the conditions will only get worse for Ukraine as more time goes on.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Despite social media platforms establishing age minimums, nearly 40% of kids aged 12 and 95% aged 17 use social media in the US. If a government label will inspire better communication between parents and their wards, they should be added to the platforms. Children must be better protected.

Narrative B

There's no reason to add a warning label to these platforms since there's no evidence that social media considerably impacts teenagers' mental health. Children's mental health issues are more often related to socio-economic factors than social media use itself. The focus must be on how social media is used rather than just the time spent.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a currently unknown social media app will reach 1B downloads worldwide by July 17, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Burning fossil fuels has led to annual record-breaking heat for several years, and what's most troubling is that heat-related deaths are rising as well. Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to avoid these lethal heat waves. Searing heat is a hazard that scientists most definitively tie to human-caused climate change. This climate emergency can only be stopped if human behavior changes.

Narrative B

The media keeps sensationalizing natural disaster stories so people think the world is on fire. What they don't include is that natural disaster deaths have actually dropped by 92% since their peak in the 1920s. Thanks to human ingenuity, carbon emissions are also predicted to decline in both rich and poor countries in the coming decade, protecting people from severe weather. This is vital missing context from the climate debate.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the 2˚C global climate threshold will be crossed by July 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. It will also de-escalate the situation on the Lebanese border. It is unfortunate that Hamas did not respond with a resounding "yes" to Israel's thoughtful proposal, but the US will continue to work toward closing the gaps.

Pro-Israel narrative

Netanyahu is clearly making sure that his more audacious allies do not play a serious role in the decision-making regarding this existential war with terror. Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are quickly becoming liabilities as their public statements are drawing international condemnation. Notably, neither of the ministers has any control over the war, and it must stay that way.

Pro-Palestine narrative

It should be clear after almost eight months of grinding brutality that Israel's true goal is to destroy Gaza and starve its people. Israel is simply not interested in committing to a permanent cease-fire, regardless of who is in power. This war must end, and Israel must finally be held accountable for its crimes.

Narrative D

Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war in Gaza ends and it withdraws its forces. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has many options at its disposal, and it is prepared to defend Lebanon from Israel's genocidal aggression.

Nerd narrative

There's a 67% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Democrats are at the forefront of the national changing attitude toward marijuana — especially facing how criminalizing it has incommensurately affected communities of color. Moore's actions will go a long way toward reversing discriminatory policies and opening opportunities in housing and employment for those who have been denied them for too long.

Republican narrative

One has to wonder how much Moore's cozy relationship with the cannabis industry affects his policymaking and whether his actions will keep Maryland safe moving forward. In fact, most of the relaxed policies related to marijuana are taking hold in Democrat-run states, which means they'll be the guinea pigs for the impact this will have on public safety.

Nerd narrative

There's a 76% chance that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Antisemitism runs deeper than just CUNY and Michigan, and its presence has jumped over 300% thanks to weak administrative responses. From Ivy League schools on the East Coast to the University of California, bad faith protesters are making life unbearable for their Jewish peers while college presidents turn a blind eye. Anti-Israel and antisemitic propaganda is poisoning academia, and it must stop immediately.

Pro-Palestine narrative

If anyone is living in fear at college it's Palestine supporters. Militarized police are violently arresting peaceful anti-genocide protesters for simply exercising their First Amendment rights. The New York Police Department is even reportedly coordinating with the Israeli government to crack down on speech at Columbia University. The extreme crackdown on voices who support the plight of the Palestinian people is deeply disturbing.

Narrative C

Hate speech does not legally exist in the United States, especially regarding free speech at public universities. No matter how offensive it may be to a person, hateful words cannot and should not be treated as crimes. No matter what side one supports, you should question any decision to investigate or discipline purely speech-related issues. If suppression of speech is allowed to continue, the perception, and possibly the reality, of rising hate will only grow.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by September 2074, according to the Metaculus prediction community.