Narrative A

The rise of AI and data centers threatens the environment with catastrophic effects. AI is driving water shortages, depleting scarce resources, and using vast amounts of electricity. Despite Big Tech's claim of efficiency, operations of companies like Google often prioritize profits over their severe socio-environmental consequences. The unchecked expansion of facilities like data centers even threatens to spark conflicts over essential resources.

Narrative B

Despite hindrances in achieving its 2030 goals, Google is working toward running its offices and data centers on 24/7 carbon-free energy, including solar and wind. Efforts include low-carbon building designs, energy efficiency, and electrification of facilities and fleets. Notably, the company's data centers are 1.8 times more energy efficient than most others. Google is also committed to sustainable commuting options and minimizing suppliers' emissions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that data centers will consume more than 10% of global electricity usage in the year 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Sunday's vote is a historic moment for the French Republic, with significant implications for the country and Europe. The left-wing forces and Macron's centrist bloc withdrawing their third-placed candidates is the best option to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority, which would plunge France into political turmoil. Now is the time to form a broad and democratic "republican front" to protect French liberal values from Marine Le Pen's nationalist RN.

Narrative B

After the French right humiliated Macron in the first round and buried Macronism, the radical left, and Macron's alliance are now resorting to the tactical withdrawal of their most weak candidates. These moves have little to do with democracy, which Macron allegedly tries to protect from the RN. Ironically, Macron's reckless reaction to the European elections and his hubris opened the door to major gains for a surging Le Pen and her allies.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being president of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

In order to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals and meet the target of halving poverty by 2030, it's essential for the private sector to adopt socially responsible business practices, uphold human rights, ensure safe workplaces, pay fair wages, and pay their fair share of taxes. Responsible lobbying is also crucial in the effort to reduce poverty. Social movements worldwide are calling for an economic system that prioritizes the welfare of billions over the wealthiest few individuals.

Narrative B

Free trade and a robust private sector are often targeted as being the source of labor and social woes, but in reality, child labor has diminished, wages have increased, and the workplace has become safer in the era of globalization. Wealthy countries also tend to lead innovation regarding renewable energy and impoverished nations often benefit from engagement from multinational corporations. The private sector is a massive boon to social well-being.

Nerd narrative

There is a 16% chance fewer than 375M live in extreme poverty by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

If the US doesn't provide a firm commitment to Ukraine on NATO membership, it signals to Putin that he is able to influence American foreign policy by launching an illegal invasion. The US must stick to its guns and realize that having Ukraine in NATO is the best way to protect American interests in the region.

Establishment-critical narrative

Bringing Ukraine into NATO would not only end up unleashing further devastation to Ukraine, but this would likely make the whole military alliance weaker as well. Such a step would only play into Putin's hands by justifying his claim that he's fighting against expansionist NATO policies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 25% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2035, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Netanyahu must be willing to work with Israel's allies to find a productive resolution to this conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas can't stay in power in Gaza, and Israel must continue fighting the good fight. Indeed, If Israel doesn't destroy Hamas, the terrorist group will immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 attack. Though there are pressures at home and abroad to end the war prematurely, Israel must get the hostages back and eliminate Hamas.

Pro-Palestine narrative

After almost nine months of non-stop brutality, the situation in Gaza continues to worsen. The US has failed to reel Netanyahu in, and over 35K Palestinians are dead because of it. Israeli crimes keep stacking up, yet the international community and the US refuse to do anything meaningful to stop the carnage.

Narrative D

Hezbollah and the regional resistance continue to demonstrate their military capabilities. Ultimately, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional conflict. However, Israel's genocidal actions and constant threats may indicate that a larger war is coming. Indeed, Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon.

Nerd narrative

There's an 86% chance that there will be 1K or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Kennedy has a long history of lying, from denying his poor treatment of women — whether through cheating on his wives or assaulting Cooney — to pushing the conspiracy theory that vaccines cause autism. Thanks to his powerful family, he's long been allowed to say and do what he pleases with impunity. But now he's being exposed to the world.

Narrative B

The corporate press has launched a smear campaign against Kennedy. Instead of writing about his storied legal career fighting for environmental causes and fighting corrupt pharmaceutical companies, the media have thrown baseless insults at him. He's devoted his life to fighting for ordinary citizens, which is what corporate America hates most.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that a third-party or independent candidate will win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

To hold talks in Afghanistan that don't take into account the Taliban's uniquely egregious disregard for human rights is laughable. The concerns of women and other minority groups were completely sidelined from the discussions, even though the isolation of the Taliban is due to their callous disregard for them. It's shocking that the UN would placate this monstrous regime and give them an ounce of legitimacy in Doha.

Establishment-critical narrative

Progress occurs somewhere between idealism and realism, and it's too easy to pontificate about the Taliban without making any effort to engage with them. While the world is greatly concerned about the status of women in Afghanistan, the West must treat the Taliban as any other de facto government if they want to see change. Politics is a game of give-and-take, and the world must meet the regime on their terms as political actors.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that the US will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

This deportation is not only part of the Biden administration's effort to deter unlawful immigration but a prime example of the cooperative nature through which the White House works with its foreign counterparts. Between deportations and border closures, illegal entries have dropped by 40% since June 4, which helps both the US and the countries from which these migrants are coming. The US president is spearheading this global initiative.

Republican narrative

Deporting 116 Chinese illegals is a mere drop in the bucket given there are 50K, mostly single adult men, inside the US right now. After Trump kept monthly illegal Chinese migrant crossings in the single digits, Biden took office and purposely allowed thousands to enter. Releasing unvetted Chinese nationals into the US is one of the clearest threats to national security, but Biden is slow to take action.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 5.91%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

For now SCOTUS is showing some restraint related to the Second Amendment despite its recent history of mostly weakening gun restrictions other than in the Rahimi case. So even while Thomas is eager to take cases like this so the conservative-leaning court might rule all guns are protected, at least the lower courts can weigh in with Rahimi as guidance.

Right narrative

SCOTUS can work around Thomas' objections for now, but eventually it will have to hear these cases and it will have to make a stand against wanna-be left-wing gun confiscators. Using the term assault weapon is a scare tactic used as an excuse to violate the Constitution. After the states reinforce Second Amendment protections on these arms, SCOTUS must do the same.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be 1.41 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

While Biden has exhibited normal signs of aging, it's important for Democrats to unite around him and focus all their efforts on preventing a second Trump term. Biden's administration has pushed many policies that help the American people, and his party can’t betray him now. Biden will be the Democratic nominee, and all resources should be devoted to helping him, not replacing him.

Republican narrative

Biden’s cognitive decline has been obvious for years, yet the Democrats refused to hold a legitimate primary, denying voters the opportunity to select a new candidate. Now, they're looking to replace Biden in a secretive process involving party insiders and governors. After years of claiming to fight for democracy, the Democratic Party seems to have cast it aside.

Narrative C

It's about time Democrats put their strong personal affinity for Biden aside and acknowledge that it's time for a new leader. Biden’s debate performance confirmed the uncomfortable truth about his mental decline, and polls show he's unlikely to beat Trump. Democrats stood behind Biden as long as they could, but it's time to move on with a new nominee.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.