PRC Economy Grew at Slower Rate of 4.7% in Q2 2024
China, the world’s second-largest economy, expanded 4.7% in Q2 of 2024 — far slower than economists forecasted and the 5.3% growth in January-March of this year.
Figures released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed the economy missing the 5.1% growth expectation reportedly set by a Reuters poll.
Pro-China narrative
Despite recent alarms about China's economy, there's no need for panic. While China's growth has historically been investment-driven, domestic consumption now leads, contributing massively to GDP growth last year. Consumption of goods in China remains higher as a share of GDP than in the US. Additionally, Chinese households have high homeownership rates, too. China's economic outlook remains stable, with proactive measures in place to support continued growth.
Anti-China narrative
China's latest economic statistics should concern the world. Years of erratic policies and strict Communist Party control have weakened domestic demand and slowed growth. The real estate market is failing, local governments are in debt, and unemployment is high. With limited policy options, China leans on increasing industrial capacity, risking greater economic instability. This signals the end of China's "reform and opening" era.
Nerd narrative
There is a 56% chance China's GDP will exceed the United States' in any year before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rwanda Elections: Voters Head to the Polls
Rwanda's presidential and parliamentary elections began on Monday with the East African country's long-time leader, Pres. Paul Kagame, reportedly set to secure his fourth term in office.
About 9M Rwandans in one of Africa's fastest-growing economies headed to the polls to elect the president and 53 members of the 80-seat parliament. Voting for the remaining 27 seats will be held on Tuesday.
Narrative A
This election will determine whether Rwanda continues its stability and economic growth path. Under Kagame's leadership, the traumatized country experienced a transformation hardly thought possible. However, much work must be done to ensure that all Rwandans can enjoy its fruits. Regardless of who ultimately wins the race, thanks to Kagame, Rwanda — unlike many countries that lecture others about democracy — is united and peaceful, with no violence expected during the elections.
Narrative B
One can't speak of a democratic election if the outcome is already known in advance, as in the case of Rwanda. Not only had opposition members campaigned under severe restrictions, but many had been threatened, harassed, beaten, and detained without charges. Moreover, few benefit from Rwanda's development, and young Rwandans suffer from high unemployment. Rwandans have little choice but to prepare for another five years under Kagame's iron fist.
Nerd narrative
There's a 98% chance that Paul Kagame will win the 2024 presidential election in Rwanda, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Secret Service Faces Scrutiny After Trump Rally Shooting
After Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally Saturday, Pres. Joe Biden said he's "directed an independent review of the national security" to probe how a shooter could manage to evade the US Secret Service and get onto a roof in close proximity to a presidential nominee.
Biden also said he has asked the Secret Service to review all security measures ahead of the Republican National Convention, which begins in Milwaukee on Monday. He added that the investigation is underway to find a motive for the assassination attempt.
Narrative A
The Secret Service has one job — to protect former and incumbent presidents — and it failed spectacularly Saturday. The agency must answer some damning questions, including how a year-old shooter could get close to Trump and why warnings from the public don't appear to have been sufficiently acted upon.
Right narrative
Some left-wing and left-wing-sympathetic pundits are actually subscribing to the notion that Trump brought this on himself. While Secret Service failings have to be accounted for, another facet of this failed assassination attempt was the language by Democrats who constantly described Trump as an authoritarian fascist whose election would irreversibly damage American democracy.
Left narrative
The right's rhetoric in the aftermath of the shooting is extremely dangerous. It ignores the prevalence of guns in America, long-standing right-wing extremist violence, and the unclear motives of Crooks — who was a registered Republican. Biden has called for an investigation and for America to turn down the temperature — the Right must follow suit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that Trump will be elected to be US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: EU to Snub Hungary's Foreign Affairs Summit
EU representatives will boycott a foreign affairs summit scheduled for Hungary next month — instead organizing their own version of the event — according to diplomatic sources who spoke to Politico.
Hungary, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, plans to host the foreign affairs summit in Budapest during August 28-29. However, one diplomat said they would snub the event to "send a clear signal that Hungary does not speak for the EU."
Pro-establishment narrative
In recent weeks, Orbán has pursued his own pro-Putin policy without proper consultation with other EU officials. This move is intended to demonstrate to the Hungarian leader that EU leaders will not simply go along with another propaganda stunt.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's clear that without responsible leadership from external mediators, the war in Ukraine will continue to escalate and cause further devastation and bloodshed. If Europe wants peace, it should back these plans instead of ostracizing them.
Nerd narrative
There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
OpenAI Whistleblowers Allege NDAs Prevent Airing of Safety Concerns
A letter from OpenAI whistleblowers to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) alleges that the ChatGPT-maker's use of non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) restricts them from sharing safety concerns with federal regulators.
The letter, which was provided to news organizations by the office of Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), claims that OpenAI had hires waive their rights to federal whistleblower compensation and that they required company consent to speak to regulators, with no exceptions for SEC violations.
Narrative A
The concerns raised by this letter are disturbing, to say the least. There are other reports trickling out of OpenAI that claim that the company hastily rushed through safety screening to meet a release date in May, as safety takes a backseat to financial interest. OpenAI cannot be trusted to fulfill its mandate of altruistic AI development and must be held to account.
Narrative B
No one has a better understanding of AI safety than the undisputed industry leader, and OpenAI has always made safety paramount. The company has a new safety committee working on a report on their upcoming model and already has strong whistleblower protections. There's no evidence that OpenAI is engaged in any nefarious activity or suppression of dissent.
Nerd narrative
There's an 88% chance that an AI will be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Dismisses Trump Classified Docs Case
US Judge Aileen Cannon ruled Monday that the US Dept. of Justice's (DOJ) appointment of Jack Smith as a special counsel to probe former Pres. Donald Trump's handling of classified documents was "unlawful" and she dismissed the case.
Cannon ruled that Smith's appointment violated the Constitution's "Appointments Clause," which requires the appointments of "Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the Supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States" to be confirmed by the Senate.
Anti-Trump narrative
It appears Cannon, a Trump appointee, is thanking him through all her recent rulings in his favor. Trump was caught red-handed hiding classified documents, but Cannon initially delayed the trial and now has dismissed the case. Conservative-leaning appeals court judges have reversed her in the past, so the inexperienced Cannon may rightly be overruled again.
Pro-Trump narrative
Cannon's ruling doesn't take Trump under consideration, it upholds the Constitution. Smith's office wasn't created by Congress nor was he nominated by the president to receive Senate approval — thus he's been illegally investigating Trump. The Biden administration's weaponization of the DOJ has again hit a snag.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Trump's federal classified documents case will begin no sooner than January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan to Ban Ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan's Party
Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Monday that former Prime Minister Imran Khan's political party — Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) — will be banned for its alleged anti-state activities.
He said Pakistan's government decided to impose the ban based on the "proven" charge of the party accepting foreign funds from unlawful sources and the involvement of its cadre in last year's violent riots.
Establishment-critical narrative
This is politically motivated and unconstitutional. The Shehbaz Sharif-led government has become frustrated as Imran Khan's party remains immensely popular and holds significant sway in Parliament. By upping the ante against PTI and Pakistan's most popular leader, the government wants to further Pakistan into political instability and uncertainty. However, all of his opponents' anti-democracy moves will not prevent Khan from returning to power as the judiciary is asserting itself now.
Pro-establishment narrative
Khan's actions have been treasonous, having sabotaged Pakistan's deal with the International Monetary Fund, received funds from Indian Americans, and manipulated the US to pass a resolution calling for a probe into Pakistan's February vote. If Pakistan is to move forward, it can't do so with the PTI, which, it should also be noted, previously banned its own political opponents. The PTI is getting what it deserves morally and legally.
Nerd narrative
There's a 19% chance of civil war in Pakistan before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Says It Hit Hamas Military Leader, Strike Kills 90
Israel said on Saturday that it had attempted to kill Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas' military wing, in a targeted strike. Health officials said the strike killed at least 90 Palestinians and wounded nearly 300 more in an area Israel declared a humanitarian zone.
Israel claimed that it had struck a compound being used by Rafa'a Salameh, the commander of Hamas' Khan Younis Brigade after Deif had visited the location. Israel said Salameh was killed in the strike but that it was "still too early to summarize the results of the attack" regarding Deif's status.
Pro-Israel narrative
This precision strike should thoroughly demonstrate to Hamas' leaders that their days are numbered. Sinwar will be forced to scramble as one of his main advisors has likely been neutralized. The group is now one step closer to defeat, and the military is effectively applying pressure on Hamas that will directly translate to further concessions in hostage talks.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel has provided no evidence that this strike targeted Deif, and it's more than likely that this was a desperate move to derail negotiations and score political points. Both a gas complex and a water desalination plant were hit, making it seem that Israel's real intention was to worsen the already bad humanitarian situation in Gaza. Such genocidal violence wouldn't be possible without shameful US support.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Malaria Vaccine Debuts in Africa
"A monumental milestone" in the battle against malaria was set Monday with the rollout of the "R21/Matrix-M" vaccine in the West African nation of the Ivory Coast.
Co-developed by the University of Oxford and the Serum Institute of India, the vaccine is targeted to immunize around 6.6M children in 15 African nations from 2024-25.
Narrative A
R21/Matrix-M promises to significantly advance efforts to eradicate malaria. Meeting the WHO’s 75% efficacy target, the vaccine is a ground-breaking achievement. At under $4 per dose, it's extremely affordable. The vaccine targets malaria pathogens early and induces a strong immune response — potentially cutting annual deaths from 500K to 200K this decade and eliminating the disease by the next.
Narrative B
R21/Matrix-M is not a cure-all. It offers up to 75% protection in trials, but real-world effectiveness may be lower, especially in impoverished regions. While it may be vital, this vaccine alone won't end malaria. Challenges include the need for multiple doses, potential difficulties in maintaining vaccination schedules, and reliance on other measures like bed nets and effective treatments. Battling malaria requires a consistent, multi-front offensive.
Nerd narrative
There is a 42% chance the global malaria mortality rates will be reduced by 90%, when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Picks JD Vance as Running Mate
The now-official Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump named Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate on Monday at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
The former president stressed that Vance was "the person best suited" to the position and would focus on "the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota and far beyond" on the campaign trail.
Republican narrative
Vance had been undersold along the campaign because he would allegedly bring little to the presidential ticket, especially as Ohio is a pro-Trump state. Actually, his appointment shows that Trump has doubled down on his MAGA populist platform combined with Silicon Valley savvy. This reassures both young and rural voters that someone will speak about their issues.
Democratic narrative
If Trump alone would be enough of a threat to America's democracy, a Trump-Vance presidential ticket makes things even worse. Unlike Mike Pence, Vance will eagerly support any attempt to subvert democracy due to his own authoritarian, Machiavellian dreams — and that is precisely why Trump chose him as his running mate.
Nerd narrative
There's an 80% chance that if the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, Trump will win, according to the Metaculus prediction community.