Narrative A

Bukele's state of emergency and his indiscriminate detention policies are a human rights nightmare. Thousands of innocent children from vulnerable communities are being unrightfully detained and charged with crimes they didn't commit. Many of these children are being housed and tortured in inhumane conditions. These policies need to end, and more care needs to be taken to protect the rights of children in El Salvador.

Narrative B

Bukele is a hero. For decades, El Salvador has been a criminal hellscape run by gangs. This state of emergency has finally taken control back into the hands of the government and the people, bringing back down the murder rate and making it a safer country. While more should be done to make sure children aren't accidentally swept up in these raids, these policies must continue as they make El Salvador a better country.

Nerd narrative

There's a 9% chance that El Salvador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Making sure Ukraine continues to be well-armed is the only way to fend off Putin and Russia in this unprovoked war of aggression. The US and NATO must not simply offer up their latest and most hi-tech weapons, however — combat is about supply lines and the West must ensure basic equipment and ammunition are kept flowing as needed.

Establishment-critical narrative

In spite of billions of dollars in US funding, the front lines in Ukraine have barely shifted in months of fighting. As such, Americans are right to ask what the strategy is and how the war will eventually be brought to a close. The US cannot be expected to continually throw money at the war, particularly with problems at home and with the national debt spiraling to over $5T.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Elon Musk's move out of California will spark an exodus as residents and businesses alike showcase their opposition to the state's anti-family agenda. Rather than addressing the very real economic woes that plague California, Newsom has exhausted all of his efforts into pandering to the few at the expense of the majority. He is now facing the consequences.

Left narrative

Business motives are what truly drive Musk's decision to move his businesses to Texas, which offers lower taxes and operational costs. SpaceX already has significant facilities in Texas, and Musk has long complained about San Francisco's business conditions. Well-known for being an agitator, Musk is citing political motivations and recent controversies simply to sow dissention.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 13.1% of American adults will identify as LGBTQ+ in 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Starmer's government has set a new tone for British politics by promising a government of service rather than political interest. With Labour at the helm, Starmer will reform, revive, and rejuvenate the country and its economy.

Narrative B

While the King's speech outlines the government's plans, the draft bills often get bogged down, side-tracked, and amended. New problems keep popping up that seize the agenda and divert the government's attention from its initial aims.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that the UK's long-term credit rating will be downgraded below an A grade by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

While Iran may not have been behind Saturday's assassination attempt, its dangerous regime should be on Washington's radar with respect to potential future plots. Not only was there credible intelligence on threats to Trump's life, but former Trump foreign policy advisors Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have been given 24/7 security due to threats from Tehran.

Pro-Iran narrative

Even though Washington itself admits Iran wasn't behind the assassination attempt, the US government is still taking advantage of the event to try and smear Tehran. Despite the Iranian government having watched one of its generals be murdered by the US, it has merely called for legal punishment of American crimes, not assassinations.

Cynical narrative

The recent assassination attempt was due solely to the Secret Service's abject failures on the ground. The questions that now need answering are why the agency didn't initially secure the rooftop from which the shots were fired, how an armed year-old was able to sneak onto that roof, and why they didn't respond to reports of an armed man on the roof minutes before shots were fired. The US security apparatus would be better served by answering these questions rather than pointing to nebulous plots by foreign actors.

Nerd narrative

There is a 29% chance that the next assassination of a sitting US President will occur after January 1, 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

These reports of a shocking, last-ditch effort to manipulate the court to be more favorable to the president's radical progressive agenda are unsurprising. Now that Biden is facing discontent in his own party, he has promised to politicize the court to appease the progressive wing of the party. The Democrats are inching dangerously close to destroying judicial independence entirely.

Democratic narrative

SCOTUS has taken a hard-right turn in the past few years, and it is high time for someone to step in and correct this. Polling shows that a majority of Americans have lost trust in the court, which makes it incumbent on Congress to step in and reverse that worrying trend and end the blatant partisanship and untouchability of the justices. An ethics code with teeth is the least that can be done.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that a US Supreme Court Justice will be impeached and removed before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This tragic incident highlights the devastating impact of cyberbullying and the urgent need for strict laws to curb it. Malaysia lacks adequate cyber safety awareness, education, and legislation, making its citizens vulnerable to online harassment and other crimes. It's vital to establish a dedicated national cyber safety agency and a support center for cybercrime victims.

Narrative B

While this tragedy was completely avoidable and must be thoroughly investigated and prosecuted to the fullest, caution is also warranted in terms of a national approach as claims of cyberbullying can be exaggerated. There's no empirical evidence that this phenomenon has increased dramatically in recent years and, given such uncertainties, Malaysian authorities would be better served by taking a nuanced approach to the problem.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that Malaysia will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While the DNC thinks pushing through a virtual vote will save Biden's election prospects, the truth is that nothing will quell voters' concerns about his age and fitness for office. As former Pres. Donald Trump has built a stronger coalition than ever before, Democratic politicians, donors, and voters have given up on Biden. An alternative candidate can beat Trump — but if Biden refuses to step down, Trump and his MAGA policies will enter the White House next year.

Narrative B

Since it appears Biden won't be stepping down, Democrats must stop talking about his foibles and get behind him as their 2024 candidate. Biden's first term has been successful — deepening relationships with key allies and showing his strength in foreign policy. Democrats should focus on hounding Trump about his criminal cases and pointing out the horrors of Project 2025 and a radical GOP.

Republican narrative

Democrats have no one to blame for this situation but themselves. They forced America to take a mentally deteriorating man as their president, and now that he's in power and doesn't want to give it up, they have no way of forcing him out. As Biden becomes more lost and irritable, Trump is winning over the hearts and minds of Americans.

Nerd narrative

There's a 27% chance that, before Aug. 22, 2024, Pres. Joe Biden will take any of the following actions to end his candidacy for re-election announce that he will not seek or accept the nomination, officially release his delegates from their pledge to vote for him, endorse another nominee, or cease to be President of the United States, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

In their quest to gobble up content to train their models, AI companies have run roughshod over the rights any creator who has their work present on the internet. Copyrighted data present in a training set can be reproduced almost exactly by end users, in many instances, as these lucrative AI tools are built on the backs of uncompensated creators.

Narrative B

The hysteria over data scraping for AI training has reached a fever pitch, and it would be akin to an author suing a child for learning to read using one of their books. AI models do not actually copy content verbatim, but use it to adjust probability values to make human-seeming output. AI generated material will complement, not replace, the work of humans.

Nerd narrative

There is a 19% chance that a US court will fine or order a company to pay to claimants $100M or more because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

On a night dedicated to talking about the safety of US citizens and stopping the invasion on the Southern border, it was appropriate that Haley, DeSantis, and other Trump rivals rallied around the nominee and against Biden. America is doomed if Biden and his leftist allies remain in power, so it's imperative for Republicans to stick together while attempting to defeat the current president.

Democratic narrative

Haley and Trump's other rivals had no choice but to capitulate to the nominee because he and his authoritarian ambitions run the party and don't tolerate dissent. Everything Haley said about Trump during the primary season — including calling him "unhinged" and cognitively "declining" — remains true, but anyone with hopes of a future in the GOP knows they can't cross Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.