Pro-China narrative

Given Washington's reckless disregard for adhering to the one-China principle, Beijing's decision is justified. It's bizarre that the US is warning about China's growing nuclear arsenal and a new arms race when it has many times more nuclear warheads. Moreover, Washington isn't defending "democracy" but using Taiwan as a bridgehead against a rising PRC, while NATO is now seeking to become a nuclear alliance. The world's biggest war machine — the United States — is the world's leading threat.

Anti-China narrative

China's move is a significant blow to global arms control efforts, unnecessarily jeopardizing international stability and, therefore, China's own security. In light of Beijing's threats to "reunify" the island with the mainland, the US remains committed to bolstering the defense capabilities of democratic Taiwan. However, despite Beijing's decision, Washington is still open to developing and implementing concrete risk-reduction steps to avoid a new and costly nuclear arms race.

Narrative C

The arguments presented by the US and China to justify their nuclear build-up are irrelevant, given the potential consequences for the international community. The US, China, and Russia are signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and, accordingly, are legally obliged to hold talks to prevent an arms race. The three powers aren't living up to their responsibility for global stability and are taking the world back to times long thought overcome.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While Germany is cutting the funds it's allocating to Ukraine, Ukraine will be able to meet its military needs via the $50B loan from the G7 soon coming its way as well as from other European instruments.

Establishment-critical narrative

This is another instance where Germany makes large promises to Ukraine, only for it to turn out that those promises were hollow and meaningless. This is an unacceptable position from the German government.

Nerd narrative

There's a 17% chance that Germany will supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Von der Leyen comfortably won reelection as Europe's democratic center joined forces to defeat extremist political forces that would have torn the bloc apart and destroyed the European way of life. As it currently faces both internal and external challenges, Europe needs continuity and stability — and the leadership of von der Leyen will be key to ensure that.

Establishment-critical narrative

European voters shifted to the right in June only to see the European establishment undemocratically push EU decision-making further to the left to maintain their power by a thin margin — even at the cost of continuing disastrous climate policies. People want change, but broken political systems keep producing the opposite results.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the European Union will have at least 31 member states by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

As Biden isolates for COVID, he looks ever more isolated politically. More prominent Democrats seem to be going public with their wish for Biden to step aside daily, and his donor cash is drying up. The next few days will determine if he can survive this situation or whether this is the end of his re-election campaign.

Narrative B

If the president has said it once, he's said it one thousand times since the debate — he's not going anywhere. Biden is the Democratic nominee; the voters chose him during the primaries, and he intends to win this November. Leading Democrats should focus more on what Biden's second term will look like legislatively.

Republican narrative

This is a great time to be a Republican and to be Trump. While the president is laid up with COVID and powerful Democrats are staging a bloodless coup to remove him from their ticket, the GOP convention is overflowing with unity. Trump has his party's wholehearted support and the type of momentum that will win the November election.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that Biden will be the Democratic nominee for US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This report has found failings at every level of government for the COVID disaster. The world has known that pandemics are inevitable, but a lack of resources and preparedness led to unnecessarily tragic outcomes. By ignoring the scientists, pandemic preparations were unacceptably on the back burner. After COVID, the world must treat this threat as real and worthy of our utmost attention.

Narrative B

The story here is not one of an inept government stymying fearless scientists but of a failure on all levels. The inquiry faults scientists and the government for groupthink, as they rammed through untested lockdowns that did more harm than good. Perhaps there will now be some accountability from the "trust the science" manufactured consensus crowd now that the actual evidence is in.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121 will be at least 34.5M, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The livestock farming industry is one of the biggest contributors to carbon emissions and the destruction of the planet. While it's understandable to want to protect farmers, the truth is that without reducing the massive slaughter industry, there may not be land to farm in the future. If lab-grown meat is invested in now, it will give humanity time to combat other greenhouse gas emitters while building a slaughter-less food supply for future generations.

Narrative B

While some people may choose to feed their families lab-grown meat, the issue with this industry is its link to global government agendas. Organizations like the UN have stated plans to overhaul the farming industry and put it in the hands of corporate powers — the ones who wish to force lab-grown food upon regular citizens while not following the same rules themselves. Governments pushing populations to eat synthetic foods should be met with extreme skepticism.

Cynical narrative

Neither side of this issue is absolutely correct. While some on the pro-lab-grown meat side wrongfully neglect the nutritional benefits of eating natural meat, some on the other side neglect the horrendous environmental impacts our agriculture industry has on wildlife. We should allow people to eat both traditional and lab-grown meat if they so choose while working together to cut back on the destructively high volume of animals slaughtered each year.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance at least 102.0B poultry will be slaughtered worldwide in the calendar year 2030 per FAO estimates, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though it may seem that it has never been as difficult to make peace, moderates must rise above the populist extremism of Hamas and the Israeli political right so the land can be shared. Both Israeli and Palestinian national aspirations are valid projects that deserve to be treated with respect and dignity. The two-state solution may not be the most equitable or desirable for either side, but it's the most achievable outcome.

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel was the final nail in the coffin for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the enclave has essentially existed as a terrorist-run proto-state. Given the Palestinian Authority's inefficacy, Israel has no partners for peace, and the last 20 years in Gaza prove this. A violent, terrorist-run Palestinian state would be an existential threat to Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel killed the two-state solution a long time ago. There can't be a Palestinian state after nearly 75 years of Israeli policies effectively atomizing and dividing the Palestinian political scene and physical landscape via a system of apartheid and occupation. The only solution is to accept reality — Israel is an apartheid state that practices sovereignty over the region, and this apartheid must be dismantled so that all people residing in the land can live free as equals.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The third day of the RNC was sheer political perfection, and Vance's eloquent speech was the ultimate way to end such a great night. Beyond making an outstanding pitch for working-class Americans' votes, Vance also shined on camera — proving the GOP now understands the importance of style in addition to substance. The Republican ticket is in good hands with Vance and Trump.

Democratic narrative

Vance may have delivered a speech high in style, but there was zero substance to it — including no mention of the numerous extreme positions he has on key issues, which have bubbled up since Trump tabbed him to be his No. 2. It may have been his strategy to focus on the convention's theme of unity rather than his alarming political views, but he won't be able to hide them for long.

Nerd narrative

There's a 71% chance that Trump will be elected to be US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

As an outspoken advocate of press freedom, the Wall Street Journal should be celebrating Cheng's new position at the HKJA. Instead, it's chosen to hypocritically fire her, citing ambiguous reasons like corporate restructuring. If the Journal cares about press freedom, it should fight alongside the HKJA.

Pro-establishment narrative

While Cheng may feel slighted, the simple truth is that the Journal has been planning to shift its Asia headquarters from Hong Kong to Singapore, thus requiring personnel restructuring. The news publication has clearly proven its commitment to press freedom and will continue to do so in every region of the globe.

Pro-China narrative

Cheng is a danger to China and its national security interests, given her position at the Western-controlled HKJA. The press union in Hong Kong is full of journalists pushing the West's agenda at the expense of safety, as it has a history of promoting and instigating violent riots in Hong Kong.

Nerd narrative

There is a 64% chance that the US will continuously be a liberal democracy until 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

While this is a huge victory, South Korea still lags well behind other wealthy countries in terms of protections for the LGBTQ+ community. A small but active group of Christian organizations have been able to stymie any progress toward equality in recent years, but this ruling may show that the right of same-sex couples to live as equals cannot be ignored any longer.

Right narrative

This ruling was very narrowly tailored, and does not change the status quo in South Korea. Polling shows that most Koreans do not support same-sex marriage, and it is up to the people, not Western NGOs and the media, to dictate when and if South Korea extends that privilege to gay couples. The socially conservative nature of Korean society must be respected.