Pro-establishment narrative

The international community is finally fulfilling its responsibility to protect civilians in Haiti, as the dire situation there has shown the world that effective humanitarian intervention remains important despite previous misapplications elsewhere. Hopefully, the MSS mission will restore peace and security in the Caribbean country and tackle violence against displaced women.

Establishment-critical narrative

Given the country's past experiences with foreign assistance, it's hard to believe that Kenyan police officers can do more good than harm. Even if this so-called "foreign stabilization mission" has the best intentions, it still lacks the legitimacy to win local support and help create lasting democratic institutions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

The shocking Houthi drone attack in the heart of Tel Aviv shows yet again that the Iran-backed group has no respect for human life in their anti-Israel obsession. That casualties still occurred despite extensive security measures is due to human error and not the failure of the Israeli military, which, in coordination with the US, managed to avoid a far higher number of casualties. The attack is a grim reminder that Israel is engaged in an existential war against terrorism, and it will emerge victorious.

Narrative B

The regional resistance will end its attacks when Israel ends its aggression against Gaza and the Palestinian people. From the very beginning, the resistance's primary goal has been to stop the war on Gaza, not start a larger regional conflict. This operation also functioned as a message to Israel's powerful Western allies that Sanaa will not sit idly by as the massacres continue.

Narrative C

That this drone attack occurred in the first place is the result of the Israeli security apparatus's utter failure. Although the Houthis and Hezbollah previously used undetected drones to attack Israeli territory, the Israeli military failed to improve its ability to shoot down low-flying drones on time. Additionally, Israel has essentially outsourced its anti-Houthi defense efforts to the US. The attack is a shock, but equally shocking is the lack of any blueprint to protect Israelis from similar future attacks.

Nerd narrative

There's a 6% chance that state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Demonstrations are important in a democracy, but we should never forget that violence and disturbing others are illegal. The negative consequences of the traffic disruption were many and costly. Taking the law into one's own hands is unacceptable, even in the context of climate change. Sentencing these five eco-activists to long prison terms is harsh, but it's the right thing to do.

Narrative B

Sentencing these activists to multi-year prison sentences, is an obscene perversion of justice. This trial was a travesty of justice and an assault on free speech as the judge ruled that climate issues were irrelevant to the case. It's an outrage that the fossil fuel industry's power has corrupted courts. This is a dark day for climate activism and the right to peacefully protest.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the 2˚C climate threshold will be crossed by May 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is the biggest technology failure ever, highlighting the risk of having numerous essential service providers reliant on a single piece of software. It's also a reminder of the importance of critical infrastructure resilience. Only businesses and institutions that develop robust systems and contingency plans and switch to an alternate system will effectively avoid the catastrophic consequences of such disruptions in the future.

Narrative B

This outage isn't unique — such incidents have occurred in the past and will likely happen again. Software updates and bug fixes are crucial to prevent all types of cyber incidents and ensure that systems run smoothly and efficiently. CrowdStrike is actively working with impacted customers, and there's a workaround. Users' systems will get back up and running again.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that a major cyberattack, virus, worm, or similar threat that utilizes Large Language Models (LLMs) in some important way will occur before Jan. 1, 2025, according to Metaculus community prediction.

Republican narrative

The student debt relief plan is a bad policy that was rammed through without any due process. Indeed, It was so bad that two judges appointed by Obama had to put a stop to it for its unconstitutional nature. Loan forgiveness is a handout to the upper classes and punishes those who were diligent and paid their loans off in time. Hopefully, the courts will finally stick a fork in this unconstitutional plan soon.

Democratic narrative

These GOP-led states have been relying on bad logic to try and trash the SAVE Plan, as analysis has shown that states won't lose revenue in the aggregate specifically because of the plan. These states haven't let a lack of injury stop them from using the courts to make it harder for millions of hardworking Americans to discharge burdensome debt that is keeping them from financial security.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the US student loan debt bubble will "pop" in 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

From the second he stepped on stage Trump looked and sounded like a true leader — humbly describing his assassination attempt, thanking God for saving his life, and praising the bravery of his supporters in its aftermath. After reassuring the crowd of his well-being and determination, he described the bright future ahead once he wins the election, emphasizing that he will fight for all Americans.

Anti-Trump narrative

No one can deny the terrifying nature of Trump's assassination attempt or how it likely impacted him, but the classic bombastic speech that came after his opening statement shows that his promise to unify the country was empty. Throughout his minute monologue, Trump claimed to be above the law and complained about the media fact-checking his lies. An actual unifying message didn't happen — Trump can't help but revert to his old self.

Nerd narrative

There is a 70% chance that Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Russia narrative

Gershkovich may have been used as a pawn, but by the US government, not by Russia. He spied on a tank factory on orders from the CIA to obtain secret information about Russia's military capabilities. Western media and advocacy groups can question this conviction all they want, but it doesn't change the fact that he's guilty.

Anti-Russia narrative

Gershkovich was targeted because he is both an American and a journalist. This conviction and trial were a sham, and he's obviously being used as a pawn in this corrupt case of geopolitical chess. Moscow wants to trade him in future prisoner swaps for their intelligence operatives and assassins held in Western jails.

Nerd narrative

There's an 11% chance that a post-Putin Russia will substantially democratize within 5 years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Through this ruling, the ICJ is effectively supporting terrorism against Israel and its citizens. The West Bank and East Jerusalem have never been sovereign territories and were captured in a defensive war. Israeli settlements act as a buffer, and suggesting that Israel dismantle these settlements without any security guarantees is tantamount to calling for Israel to stop defending itself. Indeed, this opinion, given its timing in the wake of Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre, will only escalate the situation further.

Pro-Palestine narrative

This ruling is a major victory for Palestinian human rights and self-determination. The ICJ has codified something that Palestinians have known for 75 years — that Israel is an apartheid state that seeks to have sovereignty over all of the land between the river and the sea. Israel's occupation can no longer be overlooked, and Western leaders will have to finally begin questioning their seemingly unending support for Israel.

Narrative A

The push for renewables has lagged in the developing world, as the emerging markets want the same opportunity to develop as the West had. As climate change accelerates, the West needs to get real about the pros and cons of renewables and make it worthwhile for countries to switch. Anything other than massive grants shows how vacuous renewable proposals are.

Narrative B

Energy consumption and climate change are locked in a brutally vicious cycle Emissions drive climate change, which leads to increasing demand for electricity from emission-spewing sources. Renewables offer us the chance to break that cycle. There won't be any need for power on a dead planet, so industries have voted with their wallets and dumped billions into renewable projects, showing how bright the future can be.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Joe Biden has dedicated his life to serving the American people, and Democrats appreciate everything he has meant to the party. However, the President’s age and signs of cognitive decline hurt the party’s chances of winning in November. Biden knows that Kamala Harris is more than ready to take the reins as the country’s commander-in-chief, and most Democrats agree. Harris has the experience and broad appeal to win this election, and she should be the nominee.

Narrative B

Democrats need to close ranks around Biden and give him their full support. With Trump surging in the polls, JD Vance selected for the GOP ticket, and Project 2025 lurking on the horizon, America's very democracy is at risk. The most effective approach is to praise Biden's numerous policy achievements, outline the dangers of Trumpism, and vigorously campaign as a united front.

Republican narrative

While it’s clear that Joe Biden is physically and mentally incapable of performing the duties of the presidency, Kamala Harris is no sure bet to save the Democrats' sinking ship. Most opinion polls show that Americans have an unfavorable view of the vice president, and she performs even worse than Biden does against Trump in many polls. Even the left-leaning media was impressed by Trump's performance at the Republican National Convention. Whether it's Biden or Harris, the Democrats are toast.

Nerd narrative

There is a 66% chance that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.