Study: Heat Deaths in Europe May Triple By 2100
According to a study published in the Lancet Public Health Journal on Wednesday, heat-related mortality in Europe may triple by the end of the century, with the numbers increasing disproportionately in southern European nations like Italy, Greece, and Spain.
Based on modeling data from 30 European nations, the researchers warned that heat-related deaths could increase from about 44K to nearly 129K per year, adding if global warming reaches 3°C, the number of heat-related deaths will outweigh the decrease in cold-related deaths.
Narrative A
Climate change and an aging population will raise temperature-related mortality risk in Europe, presenting new challenges to public health systems. Policymakers and health authorities can prevent health disparities from worsening by protecting more vulnerable areas and seniors and improving resilience and adaptation in the forecasted high-risk areas.
Narrative B
While deadly extreme weather is real, so is the fact that such studies are flawed because mainstream science suggests that climate change's economic and social harms are modest in the long term. Moreover, a warming world offers hope that the effect of climate change could be positive, with many people doing incredible, innovative things that will have massive impacts on the planet's future.
Nerd narrative
There's a 97% chance there will be at least 2°C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Two Children Killed in School Van Shooting
Two girls died, and six others were injured Thursday after gunmen opened fire at a school van in Attock city in Pakistan's Punjab province.
The police said the gunmen had personal enmity with the van driver's family, and the driver was the primary target of the attack. A search has been launched to capture the attackers.
Narrative A
Violence, particularly the terrorism-fueled, has profoundly impacted Pakistan's children over the decades, robbing them of a normal childhood. Besides causing countless deaths, it has displaced them and forced them into unstable, dangerous living conditions. This only compounds other social stressors on Pakistan's children like health risks, malnutrition, and psychological trauma — this demands a holistic response.
Narrative B
Thursday's tragic killing of two innocent children comes amid a surge in violent attacks in Pakistan, worsened by intensified political friction. Deteriorating dynamics between the military and the country's various militant groups are causing widespread societal instability. The security dynamics must first be addressed in order to protect the socially vulnerable — including women and children.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the global mortality rate for children under the age of 5 in 2025 will be at least 3.5%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Elections: Walz Accepts Democratic Vice Presidential Nomination
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Wednesday accepted the Democratic Party's nomination for vice president on the third night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago in front of thousands of delegates, many of who held signs reading "Coach Walz" in red, white, and blue colors.
Walz, a former high school football coach, used many football references during his speech, including painting the Democrats as down a "field goal" in the "fourth quarter" and "on offense." He added the Democrats are "the right team."
Democratic narrative
Walz's "coachspeak" was apropos considering the type of leadership he and Harris are offering the American people. The Harris/Walz ticket is determined to turn the page from the Trump era and move America forward. This speech hit all the right notes to relate to average Americans and win over their hearts and minds.
Republican narrative
Walz's speech was short, lacked substance, and spent a lot of time touting his resume — details of which have come under scrutiny. Democrats think they're going to win on vibes and feelings, but the American people want policies that will make the country and their lives better.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Blocks Military Ban on HIV-Positive Recruits
A federal judge has struck down the US military's policy of blocking people with asymptomatic "undetectable viral loads" of HIV from joining the armed forces.
In the ruling, handed down Tuesday, the judge called the policy "irrational, arbitrary, and capricious," adding that it "contribute[d] to the ongoing stigma surrounding HIV-positive individuals while actively hampering the military’s own recruitment goals."
Left narrative
This ruling is sound on moral, legal, and scientific grounds. While Biden's military took a good first step in 2022 by allowing existing HIV-positive soldiers to keep their jobs, it continued to discriminate against prospective enlistees. Modern medicine allows all HIV-positive people — in all industries — to live and work safely without fear of infecting their peers.
Right narrative
HIV medicine only works when taken consistently and properly, which is difficult to do in combat zones. Soldiers are also at far greater risk of spilling blood and coming into contact with other's blood, so it's foolish to put America's servicemen at risk of contracting this deadly disease. The courts have stripped Pres. Biden's woke military of the only common sense it still had.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that the US will institute a military draft by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iranian Parliament Approves New President's Cabinet
Lawmakers in Iran voted on Wednesday in favor of all 19 cabinet ministers chosen by Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian, the first time in more than two decades that the 290-seat parliament approved the entire proposed cabinet.
Key figures include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a career diplomat who was part of the team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal, and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, reportedly the chief of the Iranian Air Force from 2018 to 2021.
Pro-Iran narrative
Though close to the reformist faction, Pezeshkian was able to get all of his nominees approved by parliament as he formed a national unity cabinet to overcome the political divide. Cooperation between parliament and the president is crucial now that Iran faces illegal US sanctions and Israeli international terrorism.
Anti-Iran narrative
The vote in parliament has exposed the true nature of the Islamic Republic's political system. On paper, lawmakers focus on the governance agenda and policy framework of the new president and his cabinet ministers during the hearings. However, all they truly care about is the nominees' loyalty to Khamenei.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by April 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India's Lunar Mission Finds Remnants of Magma Ocean on Moon
Ahead of the first anniversary of its successful landing on the south pole of the Moon, India's Chandrayaan-3 mission has uncovered evidence that a vast magma ocean may have once existed under the lunar surface.
According to a study published in Nature on Wednesday, Chandrayaan-3's Pragyan rover analyzed the moon's high-latitude region and collected the first samples of regolith (the layer of loose rock and dust particles above bedrock) from 23 locations using an alpha particle X-ray spectrometer.
Narrative A
This discovery is a game-changer for spacefaring nations' dreams of ultimately building a human base on the moon. If ice water is also discovered on the moon's south pole, it will facilitate prebiotic chemistry that can produce and feed life and make deep-space expeditions to places like Mars possible.
Narrative B
This research is debatable because the Pragyan rover found more olivine elements than pyroxene elements on the lunar surface, contradicting the findings of previous missions. Moreover, the moon lacks plate tectonics — even if there's liquid water, it may lack the organic chemistry necessary to support life.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that NASA will next land astronauts on the moon by March 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Tesla Recalls Over 9K Model X Units Over Roof Issue
Electric automaker Tesla has issued a recall for 9.1K Model X SUVs over an issue with cosmetic roof trim separating from the vehicle. This is the second time the company has issued a recall over the same issue, doing so in 2020.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) says that the recall affects Model Xs produced in 2016. The NHTSA says that the cosmetic trim could separate from the vehicle, with Tesla saying the issue is due to an inadequate amount of primer being used.
Narrative A
Investors and electric auto observers are growing increasingly restless by billionaire Elon Musk's behavior, and how this may be affecting the product Tesla is putting out. Recalls have plagued a company that was once the standard bearer for electric vehicles, but its CEO has been focused on other activities, such as venturing into social media. Perhaps a new, more focused leader is needed to get Tesla back on the right track.
Narrative B
Tesla doomsayers are motivated more by their unease with Musk's character than the fundamentals of the company. Recalls are a fact of life in automaking, and the company's growth in new markets, even in the face of stiff competition from cheaper Chinese vehicles, is a sign to the strong value this brand still has. Given that the company is on track to make tens of millions of vehicles this year, these recalls are insignificant.
Trump Gives First Outdoor Speech Since Assassination Attempt
Former Pres. Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, Wednesday spoke to thousands of supporters outside a hangar at an aviation museum in Asheboro, N.C. — the first outdoor rally Trump has held since he survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania in July.
Trump delivered his speech from a podium behind bulletproof glass with storage containers stacked around the perimeter of the venue to block potential lines of sight. Snipers were located on several roofs of the venue.
Right narrative
After all its failures leading up to and during last month's attempt on Trump's life, the least the Secret Service could do was provide Trump with the most protection available at his future outdoor events. Any questions about Trump being scared, however, were quashed when he courageously left the safety of the bulletproof glass to embrace a woman who had been in distress.
Left narrative
It would be much easier and safer for Trump to take the Secret Service's advice and stick to indoor venues. But if his ego insists on outdoor events, he should be appreciative of the government's protection. But aside from where he's speaking, Trump must draw more scrutiny for his false claims about NATO, Afghanistan, and the Russia-Ukraine war — i.e. the dangerous content of his remarks.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1.2% chance Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Greek Oil Tanker Attacked, Evacuated in Red Sea
A Greek-flagged oil tanker, called Sounion, caught fire Wednesday morning in the Red Sea after projectiles were launched at it from two small boats off the coast of the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah.
The attackers, who are suspected of being members of the Houthi rebel group, successfully struck the ship four times, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center — a UK military entity — though it wasn't clear if missiles or drones were involved.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the Houthis haven't claimed this attack yet, they often wait days to take responsibility for targeting innocent commercial cargo ships. The ones they have claimed total more than 80 since Oct. 7, most notably those linked to Israel, the US, and the UK, and even some heading to Iran. The Houthis' goal is to indiscriminately strike as many civilian boats as possible in gross violation of international norms.
Establishment-critical narrative
While the Western media covers this issue by painting Houthis as terrorists, they're neglecting to add that Israel has been bombing Yemeni shipping ports, too. For instance, Israel last month bombed Hodeidah — a critical location that millions of Yemenis rely on to receive humanitarian aid. Though Israel denies all claims against it, this bombing was likely a war crime and shows the ethics of the so-called "rules-based order" for what it is.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.