Pro-establishment narrative

These latest attacks further demonstrate that the Iran-backed Houthis are willing to take extreme measures in the Red Sea despite the potential consequences. Targeting oil tankers represents both an environmental and navigational threat, so it's imperative that steps are taken to further counter Houthi actions in the Red Sea as soon as possible.

Establishment-critical narrative

Ignoring the double standards over Houthi legitimate actions and Israeli war crimes in the Red Sea, the main issue here is that Washington has engaged in counterproductive, illegal military operations in Yemen to try to counter the Houthis. If the US really wants to stop the Red Sea crisis, it must push for a cease-fire in Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

These renewed student protests are morally justified, and continue the long-standing tradition of civic engagement on college campuses. They serve as a vital platform for students to voice concerns about critical global issues, such as the conflict in Gaza. Nonviolent protests also challenge students to engage with complex topics, fostering critical thinking, and political awareness. By allowing on-campus demonstrations, universities are upholding their mission to develop engaged citizens and contribute to societal good.

Pro-establishment narrative

Recent campus protests against the Gaza conflict have infringed on students' rights to safety and education, forcing class cancellations and driving some off campus. They went beyond expressing views or calling for policy changes, escalating to antisemitic rhetoric and threats that should not be tolerated in any academic setting. University leaders must prioritize the protection of all students and maintenance of order on campus.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia will curtail diplomatic ties with Israel, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza, before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Destination taxes are the future, as most tourists are indeed willing to pay a levy if it helps improve local infrastructure and promote the sustainable use of local resources. Given that there has been little evidence that such taxes have a negative impact on the flow of visitors, one can only expect them to become more and more common.

Narrative B

It's a matter of fact that New Zealand's travel and tourism industry continues to recover from the COVID pandemic, lagging behind major markets. Therefore, the proposed hikes in visa fees and in the IVL spells disaster for the country's economy as they will make travel to New Zealand more expensive and less attractive, discouraging potential visitors.

Nerd narrative

There's a 23% chance that a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty will be adopted before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Alice Guo's murky background and connections to questionable activities had set off alarm bells. Her ownership of land used by a Pogo, a controversial gambling operation linked to scams, and inconsistencies in her personal history raised red flags. Her vague responses to allegations only heighten suspicions.

Narrative B

Guo has served her town with integrity. She followed proper procedures when issuing a business permit to a controversial Pogo. She is being unfairly implicated in issues primarily under the jurisdiction of other regulatory bodies. She should take this opportunity to clear her name and uphold her reputation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that an armed conflict between the Philippines and the PRC will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

From state officials to private contractors, the inquiry's damning report leaves no doubt that all corners of the construction industry are to blame. Now, the full weight of the law must be used against those whose corruption and incompetence allowed this avoidable tragedy to occur.

Narrative B

The Grenfell report fails to acknowledge the elephant in the room. Recommendations of regulatory reform will do nothing to solve the institutional racism and classism that have allowed decades of neglect towards communities such as Grenfell's to go unnoticed.

Right narrative

The chaotic, lethal extraction of US troops from Afghanistan was a major scandal — in its planning and its execution. In the aftermath of this debacle, Congress has the right to pursue the truth about what happened. The American people, especially those who lost family members during that time, deserve an explanation from Blinken, the president, and anyone with whom Congress wishes to speak.

Left narrative

At best, this investigation has the aura of a political witch hunt; at worst, however, it completely disregards the plight of the hundreds of thousands of Afghans who were forced to leave their country in the withdrawal's aftermath. Congress should put similar energy into creating legislation that will help integrate these Afghans into US society, where they are now facing a humanitarian crisis. Congress must show it knows how to look forward, as well as back.

Left narrative

The road to global gender equality is darker than it has been in almost a decade. Even in the US, the Supreme Court stripped women of their national abortion rights. Across the world, women hold less wealth, education, and political power than men. And they have a higher likelihood of facing violence. If this trend continues, it will take more than a century to reach full gender equality.

Right narrative

These reports contain serious contextual issues. When women in Western countries choose to be mothers or decline to climb the corporate ladder, NGOs often claim those societies are falling "backwards." Equality means allowing men and women to live how they want, not forcing them to achieve an abstract UN agenda. Context is required for interpreting findings like these.

Nerd narrative

There's a 35% chance that median wages will be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Sweden has had an extremely distressing rise in violence in the last several years. Despite a large amount of reporting suggesting that a sizeable portion of the violent crime in the Nordic country is due to gang violence and illegal drugs, authorities have seemingly refused to acknowledge a correlation with Sweden's lenient immigration policies since 2015.

Left narrative

There are many factors behind Sweden's rise in violent crime, including poverty and lack of integration and opportunity for some marginalized groups. Xenophobic fear-mongering will do very little to help this issue. Instead, a more impactful step would be to increase the early intervention efforts to provide at-risk youth with support and resources.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that a terrorist attack in Sweden will cause at least one death before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The DOJ's decision to unseal these charges is a positive step in bringing the perpetrators of the Oct. 7 massacres to justice and exposing their many crimes against humanity. Hamas and its international backers have been working incessantly to kick the can down the road and delay any accountability for what the group did on Oct. 7. Hamas cannot kill American citizens and expect that there will be no consequences.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US continues to compromise its role as a mediator via pointless and hypocritical moral grandstanding. Israel has committed daily war crimes in Gaza, yet the US has not issued charges against any Israeli leaders. This symbolic gesture will only serve to further obstruct negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage-release deal.

Nerd narrative

There's a 23% chance that Yahya Sinwar will cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

With yet another school shooting tragedy on the books, the country is bound to hear lots of "condolences" without any promises of concrete change. Even though they know guns are the leading cause of death for young Americans, and that school shootings have risen exponentially, politicians have been paralyzed in stepping up with better policy. It's shameful that both political parties have failed to advance meaningful change on the unacceptable issue of school shootings.

Narrative B

While it's vital to find political and public policy solutions to school shooting tragedies, it's paramount to listen to teachers as well. While teachers have varied views, research indicates that they widely agree that school shootings can be reduced by mental health screenings and treatment — both for children and adults. Fully giving school systems the resources they need based on teachers' guidance is a logical, immediate starting point for addressing this crisis.