Pro-establishment narrative

France has been struggling to find a way out of this political crisis, so there's no better name to take over as prime minister than Michel Barnier. Despite being little known in his own country, his proven negotiating skills and long experience in building consensus in Brussels will be key in dealing with a fractured National Assembly.

Right narrative

Macron's centrists and the French left joined forces in the snap elections to try to prevent the victory of the National Rally, but to no avail. Now that Barnier has been appointed as prime minister, it's clear that Le Pen's right-wing party is the political grouping that will need to be satisfied if the president really wants to ensure stability.

Left narrative

It's utterly unacceptable that Macron has decided to go over the heads of the popular vote and appoint the conservative Michel Barnier with the support of the far-right, despite the left-progressive New Popular Front emerging as the clear winner in the latest snap elections. Yet again, Macron has shown his blatant disregard for democracy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 38% chance that French president Emmanuel Macron will call another snap legislative election before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This was a diplomatic victory for the US. Ortega's arbitrary arrests and incarceration of members of the opposition and NGOs, and stripping dissidents of their nationality, must cease. No one should have to risk getting arrested for peacefully exercising their fundamental rights.

Establishment-critical narrative

This is far from a diplomatic victory for the US Through his willingness to release political prisoners while receiving nothing in return, Ortega has shown that his only goal here is to rid his country of traitors. Nicaragua has a right to defend itself from those wishing to do it harm from inside or outside the country.

Nerd narrative

There' s a 29% chance that Nicaragua will experience a successful coup d'état before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

This change in policy must be viewed within the context of China's changing demographics. The PRC's population dropped for two consecutive years during 2023, including a notable drop in the number of babies born. Chinese demographers have also called for policy shifts to include incentivizing couples to have children and even undertaking a national campaign to raise the national birth rate. Look for more changes to roll out to address this pressing societal issue.

Anti-China narrative

China's ending of foreign adoptions closes a chapter of hope for many children and families. For decades, this program offered a chance at a loving home and better opportunities for thousands of Chinese children — particularly girls affected by the one-child policy. It created beautiful cross-cultural families and life-changing experiences for both adoptees and adoptive parents. The sad end of this program represents a loss of cultural exchange and understanding between China and the adopting countries.

Narrative C

The adoption of Chinese children, particularly girls, involves complex issues. Many adoptees struggle with cultural identity, feeling disconnected from their Chinese heritage while fully immersed in the culture of the adoptive country. This often leads to a sense of not belonging fully to either world. The adoption process has been criticized for potentially oversimplifying the narrative of "rescue" from a difficult life in China.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that China's total population will be at least 1.39B by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Now that Pres. Biden has pulled himself out of the presidential race, the consequences of additional criminal convictions for his son have less political weight. However, a new trial would have been damaging to the Bidens in other ways. In that respect, Hunter Biden did the right thing.

Republican narrative

There was never any question of whether Hunter Biden was guilty of these crimes. Now, after dragging his family through the whole ordeal, Hunter Biden pleaded guilty at the latest possible stage, likely in the hopes of still being pardoned by his father in the last months of his presidency.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Pres. Joe Biden will grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before Jan. 21, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Lifting Ukraine's restrictions on weapons would allow it to better defend itself by striking Russian sites that launch missiles into Ukraine with impunity. This would help Ukraine's war effort, push Putin to negotiate for peace, and save Ukrainian lives.

Pro-Russia narrative

The US needs to think long and hard about whether to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range weapons. Ukraine knows the only way it can possibly win this conflict is by drawing in the US and UK into the fight, and that's what it hopes to achieve by striking Russia with their weapons, even if it leads to the outbreak of World War III.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Another boarding school, another blaze, and another loss of innocent lives — Kenya has suffered yet another fatal school fire. The country's education system isn't designed to handle school fires, many of which have turned out to be arson, allegedly fueled by drug abuse, overcrowding, and living conditions. It's urgent to bring attention to the lack of safety standards in Kenyan boarding schools.

Narrative B

Though the cause of the fire remains unknown, those responsible will be held accountable. Additionally, the government will review the security management of all boarding schools and ask school administrators to follow safety guidelines recommended by the education ministry. While this tragic incident is being thoroughly investigated, health agencies have been mobilizing to support parents and the school community.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that William Ruto will cease to be president of Kenya before Oct. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

While police may have been able to do more to prevent this tragedy, Georgia's gun laws open the door to these incidents— and the state's 10th-place ranking for school campus gun violence shows it. It's ridiculous that there's no minimum age requirement for possession of a rifle or shotgun. Gray never should've been near a firearm in the first place.

Right narrative

Tragedies like this aren't prevented by violating the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding gun owners. This tragedy tells us more about the level of parenting that's needed in the US. Holding parents accountable — in this case, and others — could reduce the risk of this happening again.

Pro-Israel narrative

This incident is an unfortunate tragedy that Israel will thoroughly investigate. Demonstrators threw stones at Israeli forces, forcing them to respond with live fire. Unfortunately, those in the immediate vicinity of violent protests will inevitably face risks.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Eygi was one of many foreign nationals who Israel's war machine has murdered for standing up for Palestinian rights. Israeli forces fired a single bullet, long after any stone-throwing, making it clear that Eygi was intentionally shot.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Merchan's decision to delay Trump's sentencing — apparently to avoid the unwarranted claims of a political motive — may or may not affect the outcome of the presidential race, but it means the election will be decided without voters knowing if the Republican nominee will face jail time. Trump should have been sentenced on Sept. 18; this delay only boosts his chances and fuels the false narrative that there was no case and he did nothing wrong.

Republican narrative

Seeking to sentence Trump in the thick of his presidential campaign is nothing other than election interference — a politically motivated witch hunt rigged by the left. Prosecutors can neither show that Trump made the false business records with intent to commit fraud nor prove that Trump falsified the entries to commit or cover up a separate crime. This case should be terminated as the allegations were false, and the shreds of evidence were fabricated.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.