Democratic narrative

Harris brilliantly exposed Trump's worst and most dangerous qualities while also offering the country a bright future under her leadership. She articulated clear policy proposals and skilfully balanced compassion with pragmatism on sensitive topics, including abortion and foreign policy. There's no question Harris represents a better way forward for the US.

Republican narrative

Trump was at a disadvantage the whole night because ABC decided to team up with Harris — interrupting and fact-checking the former president while letting the vice president get away with provably false rhetoric. Somehow Trump overcame the obstacles and dominated the debate, making major points on immigration, the economy, and ending endless wars.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance the winner of the 2024 US presidential election will win the popular vote, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Google needed to be penalized for abusing its market dominance. The European Commission fine was necessary to address the tech giant's unfair practices. This ruling will reinforce the importance of holding Google accountable and protecting consumers, as well as its smaller rivals.

Narrative B

This €2.4B fine is an error. Google can direct millions of users to locations across the internet because it has an index of more than 1B web pages. Its dominant market position isn't a result of illegal practice aimed at stifling competition, but a product of innovation and reflective of the quality of its services.

Nerd narrative

There's a 49% chance that Google will implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While it was right that the leaders of Khan's PTI party were taken into custody for inciting violence, they should not have been arrested on the parliament's grounds. Two wrongs don't make a right. Therefore, an investigation is ongoing to prevent this situation from happening again.

Establishment-critical narrative

This is a dark turn for Pakistan's already repressive government. Yes, PTI leaders may have gone overboard in their statements. But none of these tensions would have flared up if the government hadn't persecuted Khan on spurious charges before seeking to criminalize his party.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Pakistan will experience a successful coup d'état before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Isaacman is on a daring, risky private space mission to lay the ground for high-altitude missions to the moon or Mars. He and his crew will pass through high radiation levels — not for fun or to display wealth, but to fulfill his dream of sending people to other worlds. Isaacman has a vision of making life multi-planetary and advancing human spaceflight to be more commonplace. This ambition may sound far-fetched to some, but it will create opportunities to do science along the way and push the limits of space travel.

Establishment-critical narrative

This privately funded space exploration isn't making space more accessible to all, it's a vanity project for billionaires buying their way into space history as amateur astronauts. Spaceflight is difficult, expensive, and dangerous, which means only the ultra-rich can fly, land, and walk in space. The idea of billionaires paying for themselves to go into space isn't just distasteful — it's one giant leap for pollution. The money the wealthy are willing to pour into space tourism could be invested in making life better on our planet.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the 1,000th person will reach space by Aug. 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This legislation represents a long-standing and highly popular belief among the Mexican people. Critics may claim it will threaten judicial independence, but the truth is that wealthy special interests have controlled the courts for many years— blocking popular economic, energy, and corruption legislation. This corrupt status quo is about to end now.

Narrative B

This reform bill can't be described as democratic when the party behind it aims to use it as an authoritarian weapon. The ruling Morena party — the only real beneficiary of this law — wants to centralize control over both the civilian national guard and independent agencies and will use this newfound control over the judiciary to uphold its tyrannical policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 52% chance that the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) will be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The extensive, indiscriminate use of the highly accurate 2K-pound bomb in densely populated areas designated as safe zones is cruel and amounts to crimes against humanity. Israel has been deliberately trapping Palestinians into "humanitarian zones" only to execute them en masse using the most destructive bombs. Israel has been lying about targeting Hamas militants to excuse these heinous crimes — but killing women and children is never justified. The silence and complete disregard for these massacres is shameful.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel's use of heavy munitions is limited and necessary to eliminate Hamas. The Israeli military follows international law and takes feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm. However, for Israel to persuasively declare victory, it must target and destroy Hamas' infrastructure. The conventional wisdom about the 2K-pound bombs is misguided and unfair. The war is inherently destructive; however, vilifying Israel's use of these bombs would result in more destruction and thousands of lost lives and drag the war.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.1% chance that Israel will use nuclear weapons in combat before Oct. 7, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

A number of pro-Kremlin war bloggers are claiming that its forces are making vast gains in Kursk where a Russian counteroffensive has started. While these gains cannot be confirmed, DeepState, the Ukrainian service, has reported that the situation has concerningly deteriorated.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has launched an operation to neutralize invading Ukrainian forces in Kursk. So far, 10 settlements have been recaptured and Russian forces are eliminating significant numbers of Ukrainian manpower and equipment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 32% chance that Russian territory will be reduced by at least 1% before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

You can add this drop in the stock price of Trump's company to the many barometers showing how poorly he did in the debate. From the outset, this stock has varied alongside his popularity, and clearly, his supporters weren't happy with how he fared. This is bad news politically and monetarily for Trump, who is in the midst of a number of schemes to raise money while facing down debt and legal bills.

Republican narrative

If ever we needed evidence that what's good for Harris and the Democrats is bad for our nation, this proves it. After Harris allegedly won the debate, the reality of her economy-killing tax policies — raising taxes on corporate profits, unrealized capital gains, and the incomes of wealthy Americans — settled in and spooked the whole stock market. A Harris presidency will be bad news for the US economy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group on any day between April 14, 2024, and Election Day will be $56.31, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Mike Johnson has been dealt an almost impossible task thanks to the clear pushback from Democrats mixed with the fringe but powerful group of Republicans to his right. The government needs to be funded, and Johnson knows that in order to get that done, he'll either have to convince his right-wing adversaries to join him or offer the other side some concessions.

Democratic narrative

Unfortunately for Mike Johnson, his party has been captured by Trump and his dangerous and incorrect beliefs about voter registration. While Johnson attempts to keep the government afloat, a handful of his colleagues have chosen to hold the country hostage and complain about non-existent "illegal voters."

Cynical narrative

Whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge, these theatrical last-minute spending bill debates always result in the government increasing the national debt. Both parties will pretend to bicker over certain issues, but in the end, the Democrats will get their bloated welfare spending and Republicans will grow the military-industrial complex.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.