Canadian Armed Forces to Become AI-Enabled by 2030
At the "Responsible AI in the Military Domain summit" in Seoul on Wednesday, Canada's Defense Minister Bill Blair stated that the Canadian Armed Forces will be artificial intelligence (AI) enabled by 2030.
According to a strategy document launched earlier this year, AI is being integrated into Canada's military in order to secure interoperability with key allies as well as its adversaries.
Narrative A
Military AI will revolutionize armed forces worldwide, offering a range of life-saving applications. From advanced training simulations that boost soldier preparedness to AI-powered decision-making systems that analyze complex battlefield scenarios, AI will enhance military effectiveness and safety. While ethical considerations remain, AI's integration with the military has a promising future.
Narrative B
As nations race to develop AI-powered weaponry, the potential for catastrophic errors looms large. AI's lightning-fast decision-making could compress response times to a dangerous extent. Its susceptibility to manipulation through deepfakes and false-flag operations further complicates things. This blurring of the line between human judgment and machine calculation outpacing any efforts to establish safeguards is ominous.
Nerd narrative
There's a 68% chance that "slaughterbots" will kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori Passes Away at 86
Peru's former president Alberto Fujimori died Wednesday at 86. He was known for leading Peru through an economic boom in the 1990s, defeating the Shining Path Maoist guerillas, then being forced out of power on corruption charges and later being convicted for human rights violations.
A pivotal moment of Fujimori's presidency was the 1996/97 hostage crisis when the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement took 72 people hostage at the Japanese ambassador's home in Lima. Following a four-month stalemate, Fujimori sent in commandos — saving most captives and killing all 14 insurgents.
Narrative A
Alberto Fujimori's legacy brings back painful memories for many. He ruled Peru with an iron fist for a decade and his administration was responsible for thousands of extrajudicial executions, forced disappearances, and incidents of torture. The Fujimori regime also sterilized thousands of Indigenous women because the government considered them an obstacle to overall progress. Those who suffered under his rule have much to process when thinking about his influence on Peruvian society.
Narrative B
For many Peruvians, former President Alberto Fujimori was seen as a true leader despite his complex legacy. He saved the country from hyperinflation and stabilized the economy after more than a decade of crisis. Perhaps more importantly, he eradicated dangerous rebels who were responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians. Eliminating the insurgency came at a heavy toll, but the full context of the danger of this time can't be understated and Fujimori was a stabilizing force.
Biden Administration Grants Egypt $1.3B in Military Aid
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Congress on Wednesday that Washington will provide Egypt with $1.3B in military aid this year, the first full allocation during the Biden administration.
Since 2020, the US has withheld $320M from Egypt's security assistance, citing its human rights record, including its treatment of political prisoners.
Pro-establishment narrative
US military aid to Egypt remains crucial as Washington secures valuable intelligence cooperation, counterterrorism support, and access to the Suez Canal. Withdrawing aid risks ceding influence to Russia and China in this geopolitically significant region. Though the aid's effectiveness in shaping Egyptian policies is debatable, it represents a long-term investment in regional stability and US interests.
Establishment-critical narrative
US military aid to Egypt perpetuates a cycle of human rights abuses. Instead of promoting stability, such assistance bolsters an oppressive regime that shows no genuine commitment to reform. The US is tacitly endorsing Egypt's disregard for civil liberties and democratic values. This undermines America's moral standing and credibility on the global stage.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that a military conflict between Egypt and Israel will cause 1K or more deaths before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Starmer Says NHS Must 'Reform or Die'
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has claimed the NHS must undertake "major surgery" and "reform or die" following the results of a review into England's health services.
Speaking at the King's Fund, Starmer pledged three major changes as part of a 10-year NHS plan — moving from analog to digital technology, transitioning from hospital care to community care, and focusing on prevention instead of sickness.
Pro-establishment narrative
After far too long of Conservatives ignoring the root causes of the UK health system's decline, there's hope that Starmer and Streeting hold a credible plan to reverse the UK's healthcare doom spiral. The new government's long-term reform-focused NHS strategy is a relief after many years of short-term "sticking plaster" approaches. All eyes now will now be on performance — Labour will be well aware of the consequences of failing to achieve their lofty promises in what many may come to see as a legacy-defining test for Starmer.
Establishment-critical narrative
While Starmer and Lord Darzi are correct in their diagnosis of the many challenges currently facing the NHS, to believe the service can be fixed without a significant increase in funding risks is a dangerous repetition of an approach that has helped create this mess in the first place. Unless Labour rolls up its sleeves and finally forces those who are better off to contribute their fair share of tax to fund key pillars of British society, the NHS will only continue to crumble in front of the UK's very eyes.
Nerd narrative
There is a 75% chance that the UK will have a Labour Prime Minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Springfield, Ohio Receives Bomb Threat
The city of Springfield, Ohio, released a statement on Thursday revealing a bomb threat was issued to several of its facilities, prompting the evacuation of its City Hall while law enforcement investigates.
The city of about 58K people in the southwestern portion of the state has been in the news recently because of claims debunked by city officials that Haitian immigrants are eating residents' pets.
Democratic narrative
As long as Republicans, including Trump and his running mate Sen. JD Vance, continue to spread these lies, there's always the risk of violence ensuing. There's a long history of leaders using a hatred of immigrants to rile up their base for political means. This time, it was just a bomb threat; hopefully, next time, it won't be something that results in tragedy.
Republican narrative
Nothing excuses this type of threat, but public officials have to expect that desperate people will take desperate measures. And the residents of Springfield are filled with desperation over the troubles immigrants have brought to their city. The city needs more resources to address the increase in crime and decrease in services, and it must be allowed to turn away future immigrants.
Study: DNA Analysis Challenges Easter Island 'Ecocide' Theory
A new genomic analysis published in Nature on Wednesday found no evidence that the indigenous population of the Pacific island of Rapa Nui, or Easter Island, suffered a self-inflicted collapse due to overexploiting natural resources, challenging Jared Diamond's popular "ecocide" theory.
This comes as genetic data of the bones and teeth of 15 Rapanui individuals suggests that the island's population grew from the 13th century until the mid-19th century and fell as a result of Peruvian slave raids and an outbreak of smallpox.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Rapa Nui collapse myth has been debunked year after year for decades — and these latest findings support that there was no such thing as a Rapa Nui "ecocide." However, given that this enduring lie is all too convenient for green activists and masks the impacts of European colonialism, this is hardly the last nail in the coffin of this narrative.
Pro-establishment narrative
Even if evidence comes to show that Diamond was wrong to choose Rapa Nui as an example of ecocide, the most important issue in his work was to raise awareness about the threat that anthropogenic environmental degradation poses to humanity. Now, the international community has created a legal definition of ecocide to criminalize such damages.
Australia Strips Commanders' Medals Over Alleged War Crimes
Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Richard Marles has stripped several current and former military commanders of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) of their medals over alleged war crimes on their watch in Afghanistan.
Marles' announcement in parliament Thursday came after the 2020 Brereton Report found "credible evidence" that the ADF commanders were unlawfully involved in the killing of 39 people during the war in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021.
Narrative A
It's unfair to penalize high-ranking officers, considering the Brereton Report focuses on troops directly accused of the murders and didn't find evidence that the commanders were aware of the alleged war crimes. Stripping these medals is a betrayal of the courage, leadership, and sacrifice of soldiers on the battlefield. There should only be punishment if an officer is found guilty by a court of law.
Narrative B
Marles' decision to strip these medals demonstrates Australia's commitment to accountability for those who bring shame to the country's military. These commanding officers can't retain their honors — awarded for leadership in combat — when they're morally responsible for what occurred under their watch. Removing medals for unlawful behavior will send the message that when one person conducts an unlawful behavior, it stains the entire unit.
Narrative C
The fact that honored very top commanders have been let off the hook and aren't facing the prospect of having their medals stripped shows that responsibility and accountability don't reach far enough up the chain of command. The Australian military hasn't been let down by its senior officers and subordinates but by a lack of moral courage at higher headquarters.
Narrative D
Those who served in Afghanistan don't deserve to be painted as war criminals because of the alleged acts of a few. This decision will put a strain on veterans, who are already vulnerable to a high rate of suicide. This decision is a disgrace to those who risked their lives to fight terrorism.
Nerd narrative
There's a 45% chance that Taliban-controlled Afghanistan will be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before Jan. 1 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Treasury Prepares New Rules to Enforce 15% Corporate Tax
The US Dept. of the Treasury released a new 603-page proposal on how it will enforce the 15% corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT), which was passed by Congress as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
According to the Treasury Dept., the new rules will force roughly 100 companies—who it claims currently pay an average of 2.6%—to start paying the 15% minimum. It predicts this will garner $20B in tax revenue in 2025 and $250B over the next decade.
Narrative A
This rulebook is common sense, as the largest corporations in America not only play an average of 2.6%, but more than half of them pay less than 1%. The CAMT was passed with the goal of making the absolute richest companies pay their fair share — which is why it only applies to those with $1B in profits, not sales. While companies will have a chance to comment on the matter, this proposal should be accepted by anyone who prioritizes Main Street over Wall Street.
Narrative B
America has been debating the same tax issues for decades, and as is always the case, higher taxes won't make a dent in the federal deficit. The US has higher income, capital gains, real estate, and inheritance taxes than the average OECD country, but the government spends too much on subsidized social programs to stay afloat. Even if a 100% income tax on billionaires was imposed and the corporate tax rate was increased, the debt would barely come down and the economy would crumble.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.