Republican narrative

ABC News tried, and failed, to single-handedly tip the scales against Donald Trump in Tuesday's presidential debate. The network's moderators relentlessly "fact-checked" Trump while giving his opponent mostly a free pass. This left-leaning favoritism left Trump fighting a three-on-one battle, as noted by the former president and his supporters. The lopsided scrutiny reinforced long-standing beliefs about mainstream media's anti-conservative agenda — the American people don't need to witness another biased debate circus.

Democratic narrative

Vice President Harris soundly won the ABC-hosted debate. By exposing Trump's weak grasp of facts, xenophobia, dangerous positions, and impulsive behavior, Harris made a bold statement to the American people. Because this race is still so tight in the polls, Americans deserve another square-off to further expose Trump's flaws. If a final debate comes to pass, it should follow ABC's lead, which demonstrated that maintaining neutrality is possible while holding candidates accountable for their statements.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Technoskeptic narrative

As tech giants rush to develop increasingly powerful artificial intelligence, they risk unleashing forces beyond human control. The breakneck pace of advancement leaves little room for safety considerations or ethical guidelines. An unchecked AI arms race could lead to catastrophic accidents or intentional misuse, potentially threatening millions of lives. Humanity's future hangs in the balance as we hurtle towards a technological singularity with potentially dire consequences.

Narrative B

Fear of AI is largely irrational and rooted in Western paranoia. Asia is embracing AI as a valuable tool for societal progress and economic growth. Historical parallels show that similar fears arose during the Industrial Revolution, yet machines ultimately improved human life. AI will likely relieve humans of tedious mental labor, just as machines did for physical tasks. Embracing AI pragmatically may lead to more productive societal outcomes.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that OpenAI will announce GPT-5 by Jan. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Trump's wildly popular economic plans, including this blue-collar tax cut, will make America richer and stronger. This would be a win-win situation, with workers further incentivized to work extra hours to contribute to the success of their employers while earning money for further spending that will boost the economy.

Democratic narrative

Trump's track record in actually helping the working class is awful, and this plan is no different. While he may claim removing taxes on overtime pay has the approval of economists, there are plenty of economists who believe this idea is terrible and is probably an example of Trump just offering bad-faith populist rhetoric with elections just weeks away.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Keir Starmer's series of socialist nanny-state interventions on the public's health is an infringement on individual liberty and British values. Already fixated on banning smoking and energy drinks, the UK's Labour government's supposed bid to tackle child obesity seems less about reforming the NHS and more focused on dictating personal lifestyle choices.

Narrative B

While predictable cries of nanny state are to be expected, the imminent threat of collapse facing the NHS without a new wave of bold health-focused policies simply cannot be ignored. With the societal impact of obesity-related health complications becoming increasingly damaging, Labour is fulfilling Tory-era pledges to turn the corner on the UK's growing health crisis.

Nerd narrative

There is a 75% chance that the UK will have a Labour prime minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While a 25% pay raise sounds nice on its face, many of these workers make $20 per hour or less — meaning the proposal won't even see them keep up with inflation. Seattle is one of the most expensive places to live in the country, which is why these men and women, who work dangerous factory jobs every day, are rightfully fighting for a living wage for themselves and their families.

Narrative B

While this vote certainly shows that unions still have some power, that won't last forever as technology threatens to replace human labor. Corporations across the country have had to lay off non-union workers, and even some union workers, due to rising costs. And even without considering the technology factor, American manufacturing companies are already beginning to shift their factories to Mexico.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 12.2% of American workers will be represented by a union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The buck lands with the person in charge, which, in Israel's case, is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Oct. 7 was an intelligence failure of epic proportions, which resulted in Hamas launching its catastrophic attack. Netanyahu must also publicly accept blame and take responsibility — as others are doing — for his government's inability to carry out its primary task—to protect Israel's citizens.

Narrative B

Mass resignations don't help to provide clarity to Israeli residents about the underlying systemic problems in the lead-up to Oct 7. Israelis deserve to know why the military was found unprepared despite a reported warning of Hamas' large-scale invasion of Israel a year ago. Questions like why the commanders dismissed the armed group's capabilities and why it had diverted resources away from monitoring Gaza remain unanswered.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be prime minister of Israel by May 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The men who stole this painting not only attacked a beloved piece of art by an incredible artist, but they terrified those who run the gallery, given that this was the first robbery they'd ever dealt with. Although they'll now have to put the piece in a vault for safekeeping, the gallery will receive a bit of cosmic justice, as the piece is likely to increase in value.

Narrative B

While no one's art should ever be stolen, especially from a private gallery, society also shouldn't have such high regard for Banksy. Since he's labeled a "street artist," he's free to roam the world painting on public walls, but if a so-called "graffiti artist" does the same, they'll get slapped with fines or even sent to prison. Either both types of artists should be punished, or neither.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though Kim may seem like an irrational actor, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief after successive American administrations have derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.

Pro-establishment narrative

As much as North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and engage in bombastic rhetoric, it would be best for Pyongyang not to push this too far. The North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship, and it's near-impossible for them to keep masking vulnerabilities with dangerous propaganda and military activity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that that the World Population Review will rate North Korea and South Korea as being "at war" before Jan. 1, 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

China is the greatest threat to America, which is why this committee, with broad bipartisan support from the rest of the House, worked together to pass these bills. As China threatens everything from stealing Americans' biological data and placing surveillance cranes in ports to flying military drones in American airspace, the US government is taking a stand against this adversarial regime.

Pro-China narrative

The only issue upon which Republicans and Democrats can sadly agree is that China should be portrayed as an enemy. As Pres. Joe Biden publicly promises to improve relations with Beijing, his colleagues in both parties are simultaneously holding an entire week's worth of meetings aimed at demonizing China. These political stunts will hurt both the American people and Washington's relationship with Beijing.

Nerd narrative

There is a 67% chance that China will experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.