Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's influence tactics have sown chaos and division in various countries. From orchestrating inflammatory incidents in Paris to cyberattacks against European nations, the Kremlin has disregarded sovereignty and international norms, caused destabilization, and undermined public trust.

Establishment-critical narrative

The West's susceptibility to disinformation stems more from internal issues like political disillusionment and sensationalist media than Russian machinations. This panic over Russian influence risks pushing the West towards counterproductive propaganda efforts, potentially compromising its values.

Narrative C

While foreign interference attempts exist, their actual impact remains questionable. Overemphasizing this threat enables authoritarian governments to tighten restrictions and deflect focus from critical issues. The focus ought to be on rebuilding institutions and improving democratic participation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1.1% chance that a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country will be widely attributed to an AI before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

AMR is a global phenomenon that threatens both rich and poor countries. Due in large part to antibiotic misuse, more people are now at risk of contracting deadly diseases like HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis. To fix this, both national and global bodies, alongside industry leaders, must track antibiotic usage, work toward eradicating its abuse, and invest in new, non-resistant medicines.

Establishment-critical narrative

AMR is the result of collusion between the agricultural and pharmaceutical industries. While Big Agribusiness profits off of pumping its factory farm animals full of antibiotics, Big Pharma gets rich by selling the antibiotics to them. What's worse is that they get away with it by spending millions of dollars annually on lobbying the government and funding misleading research.

Nerd narrative

There is a 49% chance the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year will double by Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin's increase in troop numbers comes after his invasion of Ukraine dragged into its second-and-a-half year without the result he had hoped to achieve. It also comes as Ukraine's Kursk offensive exposed Russian vulnerabilities.

Pro-Russia narrative

The size of Russia's military has expanded in response to the growing size of hostile actions and threats made against Russia by the West. Not only is Russia facing Western-backed hostilities on its western borders, but there's growing instability in Russia's east.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The fabrications published by the Jewish Chronicle demonstrate the lengths some are willing to go to assist Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist government. Such influence operations are caustic to both Israeli and Jewish life. Indeed, the Jewish Chronicle has become increasingly sensational in recent years under editor Jake Wallis Simons, making this incident unfortunately unsurprising.

Narrative B

The Jewish Chronicle has taken full accountability for the errors that led to the publication of false information. Stronger mechanisms to prevent incidents like this one from occurring have been put in place, and hopefully, those who left will eventually return.

Left narrative

The Murdoch media empire is following directly in the footsteps of TV drama Succession as Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan seek to defend their right-wing agenda by attempting to unwind their family's legal rights. With the court case shrouded in mystery, only time will tell whether the media mogul is successful in his attempts to ostracize his children for the sake of ideology and profit margins.

Right narrative

Murdoch's family seeks to bite the very hand that has fed them for decades. Whether they like it or not, the fortunes amassed by the media mogul are a direct consequence of its unique focus on right-wing coverage, and any attempt to change this is to endanger all that the family has built. Having de facto run both corporations for over half a decade and proudly holding conservative opinions, it is only natural that Lachlan Murdoch is the rightful successor.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though Israel has not taken credit for this well-planned operation, it should demonstrate to Hezbollah and its patrons in Tehran that it cannot withstand an Israeli assault. The group's highly-trained and well-equipped ranks have been thrown into chaos, and its vulnerability has never been so clear. Hezbollah should end its terrorist attacks on Israel if it seeks to protect Lebanon.

Pro-Iran narrative

This attack against Lebanon is a clear example of Israeli terrorism in the region and its disregard for human life. Both Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah will investigate the security failures that led to this attack, and a response is guaranteed. Hezbollah is ready and able to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Israel will invade Lebanon before Oct. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This extremely shocking case contains distressing details, but that is nothing compared to what Gisèle has and will continue to endure. For 10 years she went unaware of her abuses, and now she must re-live it all as Dominique stands trial. As the court rightly pursues justice for Dominique's victims, that's not all that should come of it. The government should expand its legal definition of rape to specifically include when a rapist uses drugs to "impair" the victim.

Narrative B

While Giséle's bravery in dealing with this legal process should certainly be applauded, it's questionable whether she should have the right to publicly reveal the identities of the accused in this trial. Some senior lawyers have suggested that such information should only be scrutinized once individuals have been convicted to avoid stigma and judgment for those who may be innocent. Anonymity is a key protection that should have been afforded in this case.

Narrative C

The case of Dominique Pélicot stretches back decades before he began abusing his wife, having been accused of raping a woman in 1991 and confessing to the rape of another in 1999. He was likely able to get away with this due to his ability to curate a positive public image while hiding his dark personal life, which likely includes his alleged offenses against other relatives. Hopefully, this case will help the world identify and deter future psychosexual predators.

Pro-establishment narrative

This law is yet another Kremlin-style repressive initiative aimed at imposing discriminatory restrictions on Georgia's LGBTQ+ community. By modeling legislation on its autocratic eastern neighbor's anti-West rhetoric, the government is backsliding on human rights. It's a shame that the Georgian Dream party is exploiting anti-LGBTQ+ attitudes to boost conservative support before the elections instead of building an equal and accepting society.

Establishment-critical narrative

This law isn't making Georgia "more Russian." The country's constitution bans same-sex marriage. The government is just following the same premises and introducing initiatives necessary to combat the West's LGBTQ+ propaganda, safeguard its traditional standards, and strengthen family values. The government can't prioritize EU membership over Georgia's best interests.

Narrative C

The opposition boycotting Tuesday's vote underscores Georgia's dramatically polarized political landscape. Though a Georgian Dream loss in October may not guarantee the bill is rolled back simply because the country isn't overtly supportive of LGBTQ+ rights, the only way to take a stand in a region beset by state and religious homophobia is for the community to go in great numbers to the elections and vote for change.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that the Georgian Dream party will win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Most Americans disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.

Republican narrative

There's no post-debate momentum. The data shows few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. Polling shows razor-thin margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner, and that's what matters.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.