Pro-establishment narrative

Putin's proposed changes to his country's nuclear doctrine are likely an attempt to breathe new life into Russia's saber-rattling — particularly at a time when Western countries are debating lifting restrictions on long-range weapons. Nonetheless, it's never good when a nuclear-armed country loosens its parameters over when such weapons can be deployed.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Russia has no tool to intimidate global partners other than nuclear blackmail. These threats should be ignored, and certainly should not prevent Western countries from providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield.

Pro-Russia narrative

The proposed changes to Russia's military doctrine are in direct response to the military and political threats the country is facing. These adjustments are essential to ensure that Russian citizens, and the Russian state, remain adequately protected.

Nerd narrative

There's a 23% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Wednesday was a loss for the Conservative Party but a win for Canada. By defeating the motion of no-confidence, Trudeau's minority government was able to avoid the chaos of a forced resignation and subsequent snap election. At a time when stability is crucial, triggering a political crisis would have been reckless and irresponsible.

Right narrative

Many Canadians are rightfully holding Trudeau personally responsible for the rising inflation and high cost of living. His popularity has been declining for years, with most believing Poilievre has the best plan when it comes to crucial issues like housing, health care, and the economy. It's time for Trudeau to do what's best for the country — step down.

Nerd narrative

There is an 85% chance Pierre Poilievre will become prime minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is a spectacular fall from grace for the mayor of the US' largest city. While the law does not require Adams to step down if indicted, the mere presence of constant investigations and poor publicity will damage his administration's ability to govern the city. For the sake of all New Yorkers, Eric Adams should remove himself from office.

Narrative B

While this indictment, if proven, would be shocking, America operates on the notion of presumption of innocence. Adams is owed that much, at least, and we should be careful before jumping to conclusions. Federal prosecutors have made baseless accusations against New York City politicians before, so Adams should stick up for himself if he's truly innocent.

Narrative A

OpenAI has already changed the world for the better, which is why its nonprofit arm will remain a crucial part of the new corporation. However, to accomplish the technological pursuits required to further benefit humanity, the company will need enough financial backing, and thus seek business partnerships with tech powerhouses like Apple.

Narrative B

While Altman publicly claims that this move is to further OpenAI's initial nonprofit mission, privately he's been pushing the organization away from its altruistic philosophy for some time. This is why founding members and other longtime employees have been leaving in droves — including top scientists. Those on the inside have seen this coming for a while.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that after a (weak) AGI is created, it will be at least 49.4 months before the first superintelligent AI is created, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Heavy in policy with a focus on unity instead of division, Harris's Pittsburgh speech was a stark contrast to the often hate-filled ramblings that America has grown so used to within the Trump campaign. Harris' opportunity economy is the only agenda aimed at uplifting America's middle class and finally bringing politics back to the people who truly matter. Her policies will stimulate the economy and empower workers.

Republican narrative

By suggesting America must move on from its failed policies of the past, Harris showed extreme disregard for the responsibility they hold over America's current economic woes. Having pushed the cost of living through the roof during her time as vice president, Harris is fooling no one by claiming that she's the answer to the struggles of the American middle class, who need an America First solution.

Nerd narrative

There is a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

This set of polls is big for Kamala Harris, who may flip North Carolina blue for the first time since Obama won there in 2008. She is also showing promise in Georgia — the battleground state where Trump has his best results.

Republican narrative

Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to Hezbollah's daily terror attacks along its northern border. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

The US must stop with its naive plans for "cease-fires" that will only lead to more terror. Israel has been incredibly patient regarding the situation in the north, but after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, Israel has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Israel wants peace more than anyone, but it cannot allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society in such an existential way.

Pro-Palestine narrative

It is clear that Israel is using the same strategy in Lebanon that it has used in Gaza – the forced displacement of the civilian population. The US continues in this cease-fire charade while arming Israel to the teeth, encouraging Israel to light the region on fire. The only way to end this nightmare is for the US to finally end its unilateral support for a genocidal Israeli state.

Narrative D

The attacks against Lebanon are a clear example of Israeli terrorism in the region and its disregard for human life. Hezbollah opened a support front with Israel to stand in solidarity with Gaza, which has faced a genocidal Israeli campaign. Its attacks will end when Israel withdraws from Gaza. Nonetheless, Hezbollah is ready and able to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression.

Pro-establishment narrative

China's military has been sailing through and flying over the Taiwan Strait for months, antagonizing both neighboring countries like Japan and the Philippines and allies like Australia. Beijing is attempting to control not only Taiwan, but also the internationally recognized waterways upon which many countries rely. If Beijing continues to flex its military might in the region, Western navies will respond in kind.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Western establishment, directed by neoconservatives in the US with the help of its Asian allies, is trying to turn the South China Sea region into another NATO-like military alliance. To accomplish this — just as it did with its so-called interventions in Yugoslavia, Kosovo, and Serbia — it seems Western militaries are preparing to invade the region, risking an all-out war with China. US allies in Asia and Europe must stop taking marching orders from Washington before it's too late.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance there will be a US-China war before 2035 if the US says it will use nukes to defend Taiwan, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The data has shown too strong of a link between Oxbryta and patient deaths to keep this drug on the market. While drugs are supposed to make sickle cell patients better, this one has led to additional health issues, including arthritis, kidney failure, and stroke.

Narrative B

While it's understandable for a company to prioritize patient safety, this recall is devastating to the many sickle cell patients who have virtually no treatment for their disease. Between this recall and that of Crizanlizumab earlier this year, 20 years of research have gone out the window.