Narrative A

The International Longshoremen's Association is squarely to blame for the US port workers' strike. The central issue is its strong opposition to port automation, not a wage dispute. While US ports desperately need automation to handle growing import volumes efficiently, the Association resists it, arguing it would eliminate jobs. Despite this stance, automation is vital for smoother operations.

Narrative B

This strike is the result of the US Maritime Alliance's bad-faith actions in this labor dispute. While it accuses the union of stalling negotiations, foreign-owned companies are profiting at the expense of American workers. The strike now threatens to disrupt supply chains and the US economy as both sides remain entrenched in their positions.

Narrative C

For Pres. Joe Biden and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, intervening in the dockworkers' strike could alienate labor voters, which is crucial in swing states. However, letting it prolong could disrupt the economy, increase prices, and harm consumers, giving former Pres. Donald Trump an opportunity to exploit the chaos. This large-scale labor dispute is an election "October surprise" in the making.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 12.2% of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Assange's publications revealed war crimes, torture, and human rights abuses. Rather than pursue the perpetrators of these crimes, the US went after the whistleblower and journalist, having a chilling effect on journalism and creating a perception that the US is more interested in covering up wrongdoing than seeking justice.

Pro-establishment narrative

By indiscriminately publishing classified US documents that included unredacted names of government sources, Assange put hundreds of people's lives at risk. His action went way beyond traditional journalism, and it was right that he faced the charges that he did.

Pro-establishment narrative

Irrespective of whether the war in Ukraine comes to a close or not, the latest budget shows that Russian Pres. Putin is seeking a form of military Keynesianism — enacting excessive spending on defense in the hopes it will revive Russia's fledgling economy.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's budget is well thought-through, taking into consideration all the needs of the state so that every sector is adequately funded to meet the country's needs.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 2.5% of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While engaging on the ground in Lebanon may not work perfectly in Israel's favor, Israel still faces continuous threats from Yemen to Lebanon. Israel has a right to defend itself, and though it must also be careful not to spread itself too thin in the face of a still-formidable Hezbollah, using strategic operations to push the terror group back seems like a smart move.

Pro-Israel narrative

Despite the current US administration's softball tactics against Iran and its proxies in Yemen, Israel's aggressiveness in Lebanon has brought Tehran to its knees. Hezbollah is Iran's strongest ally and was supposed to be a terrifying enemy, but now that Israel has effectively crushed it, the West and its Middle East allies can rest assured that Iran is now on its heels.

Anti-Israel narrative

Unless Hezbollah retreats, the only way for Israel to win is through a full-scale invasion deep into Lebanon. If Israel chose to do this, however, it would have to stop its airstrikes to protect its troops on the ground, and thus Hezbollah would be able to continue launching strikes into Israel. If Israel continues bombarding civilian populations across the region, more and more people in both the Middle East and the West will support the victims of Israeli aggression.

Nerd narrative

There's a 99% chance that Israel will invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Mark Rutte couldn't have taken the helm at a more important time. While Kyiv needs NATO to provide more ammunition to stave off recent Russian gains, the entire member bloc needs to invest more financially for its own security purposes. Hopefully Rutte, with his successful history of leading the Netherlands, security conferences, and negotiating with Donald Trump, will strengthen the West more than ever before.

Establishment-critical narrative

Mark Rutte represents everything that's wrong with the Western establishment. While the media portray him as a strong statesman willing to do what it takes to defend Ukraine, in reality, he has hawkish views and wants to allow Kyiv to use Western weapons deep inside Russia—a clear provocation aimed at widening the conflict. It's no wonder he mentioned the Malaysian airline flight, which is arguably another piece of propaganda aimed at demonizing Russia.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that combat troops from any NATO country will be openly present in Ukraine in significant numbers before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

This is a major victory for those who value bodily autonomy and a woman's right to have authority over her own health. No one else should be allowed to govern women's health decisions. This overturned law has had deadly consequences, so it's up to judges to make corrections to the law where legislators have erred.

Republican narrative

Although this judge's ruling will probably again be overruled by the state Supreme Court, McBurney has put the lives of innocent babies and young women, who may have to deal with the lifelong trauma caused by an abortion, at risk in the interim. More must be done to make sure the will of the people isn't overturned by rogue actors.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Thanks to the determination of civil rights leaders and the victims of the massacre, the US government is finally reviewing this case. While it took over a century, those innocent Black Americans — who were robbed and killed simply due to their skin color — are getting justice. Hopefully, this investigation will lead to a broader conversation about the racism that continues to plague contemporary America.

Right narrative

While the tragedy of the Tulsa Massacre must not be dismissed, it also must not be used as a political tool to divide the US along racial lines and push the false narrative that white people are inherently intolerant and the US is systemically racist. Instead of pitting Blacks against whites, poor Americans of all races would be better served if their leaders cleaned up city streets, improved schools, and implemented economic growth-oriented fiscal policies.

Pro-establishment narrative

Iran's attack on Israel was an unprecedented escalation that will only make it harder to secure peace in the region. The US successfully worked with Israel and other allies to limit the attack's destruction. There will be consequences for attacking an American ally.

Pro-Israel narrative

Iran's attack against Israel was a declaration of war. For almost a year, Israel has been under constant attack from Iran and its proxies. It has remained patient, but now things have changed. Though a direct response may not be immediate, Israel will have to hit Iran hard to deter any further aggression.

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran simply cannot stand idly by while Israel commits genocide in Gaza and prepares to do the same in Lebanon. This successful attack was precise and targeted Israeli military installations. Indeed, Israel should think wisely about its next moves and not escalate the situation any further.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that there will be state-based conflict between Israel and Iran causing at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Unfortunately, the issue surrounding glacial melting is a global one, with the world's glaciers reported to have shrunk by half since the late 1800s. While those melting in northern Europe are receiving much-deserved coverage, the most terrifying cases are occurring in Asia, where the loss of the Himalayan glaciers risks threatening billions of people with water shortages. These problems will only worsen if climate change isn't tackled on an international scale.

Narrative B

Climate alarmists mask the fact that glacial melt and growth are complex geophysical processes. In the Himalayas, for instance, many of the so-called "endangered" glaciers are growing, with others either remaining the same or melting at much slower rates. Reductionist climate alarmism leads downstream to bad environmental policies and even potential geopolitical tensions if nuances and scientific facts aren't portrayed accurately.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will collapse by July 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.